ESPN prediction has Mariners making big-time trade to solve third base issues

It's time for the team to go big or go home.

93rd MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard
93rd MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard | Steph Chambers/GettyImages

The offseason is drawing to a close. Pitchers and catchers will report to spring training in roughly two weeks, which typically signals the end of the winter. If teams are serious about finalizing their roster before then, any moves will have to be made quickly. The Seattle Mariners still haven't done much to fill their infield gaps (or much of anything, period), so why not shake the room with a big trade?

In a recently published list of bold predictions for the upcoming year, ESPN writer Eric Karabell predicted that Seattle would acquire Nolan Arenado. His reasoning was that the Cardinals must move on from him to free up salary and open up a spot for Nolan Gorman at third base. The Cardinals' desperation could pave the way for the Mariners to get a lopsided deal in their favor, one that sees St. Louis covering a significant portion of the money still owed on his contract. If that's the case, he'll be receiving checks from three different organizations: the Mariners, Cardinals, and Rockies.

Public sentiment on Arenado is a great illustration of how quickly things can change for elite athletes. Three years ago, he was seen as one of the best players in baseball. He led the entire National League in position player rWAR (7.7), posted a 151 OPS+, won a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger, and placed third in MVP voting. After back-to-back down years with a combined 4.9 rwAR and 104 OPS+, he's now more often described as "washed-up" than anything else.

There's definitely merit to those concerns. Statistical regressions of that magnitude don't just happen due to bad luck on batted balls or other extenuating circumstances. He has lost quite a bit of exit velocity, which has reduced his slugging percentage from .533 in 2022 to just .394 in 2024. To make matters worse, he has never been great at drawing free passes, posting a career walk rate of just 7.8% , leaving him unable to compensate for the drastic loss of power.

But he's still Nolan Arenado. He still hits for a reasonably high average and has excellent bat-to-ball skills. Last year, he whiffed just 17.2% of the time while striking out 14.5% of the time, with the latter figure landing him in the top decile of qualified hitters. His defense is far from where it used to be in his heyday, but he still managed six Defensive Runs Saved last year, landing him as a finalist for last year's Gold Glove award.

What would St. Louis want from Seattle in return? The answer is obviously pitching, given that it's really all that the Mariners have to offer, and the Cardinals could use some additional help in the rotation behind Sonny Gray and Erick Fedde.

So far, Seattle's front office has only been open to trading one of their talented arms, but discussions surrounding him slowed down after the Winter Meetings. Alternatively, they could offer some prospects from their highly-touted farm system.

Outside of the return package, the biggest concern is undoubtedly the salary. Exactly how much the Mariners will be on the hook for will be the biggest blocker to getting this deal over the line. Despite his diminished form, having Nolan Arenado on the team would still be an improvement to the lineup, but he simply isn't worth the $64 million he's still owed.

There are quite a few details to iron out before the offseason window closes, but if it gets done it could just save Seattle from having yet another lackluster winter.

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