Emerson Hancock is giving Mariners an easy way out of looming rotation crunch

A solution for how the Mariners can get out of having too many starting pitchers? Yeah, we've heard them all. Heck, we've written about a six-man rotation and a possible trade, neither of which should be off the table. In all likelihood, though, someone's headed to the bullpen.

If one had to guess, one assumes that Emerson Hancock would rather it not be him.

After largely disappointing in his first few tries in the majors, Hancock has finally gotten to have his moment while Bryce Miller has been out with oblique inflammation. He's made six starts and pitched to a 2.86 ERA over 34.2 innings, with 32 strikeouts against only six walks.

One wants to believe this is legit, and there are things such belief can rest on. Hancock is a former first-round pick who's still only 26 years old. And per multiple metrics, the quality of his stuff is up. The general picture is that of a pitcher who has figured it out.

Why Emerson Hancock's underlying stats suggest he belongs in the Mariners bullpen

There's always a way to break things down, though, and one can start with the reality that Hancock's ERA is likely artificially deflated.

His expected ERA is more than a run and a half higher at 4.51, which mostly alludes to contact quality issues. It's not an accident that he's allowed a team-high seven home runs, nor is it an accident that the bulk of those homers have come in his third trip through the lineup:

• 1st PA in G: .593 OPS, 1 HR
• 2nd PA in G: .599 OPS, 2 HR
• 3rd PA in G: 1.159 OPS, 4 HR

There's more than just familiarity working in opposing hitters' favor when they face Hancock later in games. He's also been bleeding velocity as he gets deeper into starts. His fastball and sinker have averaged 95.5 mph in the first inning. By the sixth inning, he's down to 94.0 mph.

To be clear, none of this is cause to demote Hancock to Tacoma when Miller is ready to come off the injured list. Hancock could stay stretched out down there, sure. But when a pitcher is nasty for any amount of action at the big league level, it's best to keep him there.

To this end, moving Hancock to the bullpen (which could use some help right now) isn't merely the right move because of how he might thrive in shorter spurts. At least for now, there's also the reality that neither Miller nor Castillo is a practical option for relief work.

Castillo is having a very bad time as a starter these days, but he's also a respected veteran with the highest salary on the team. For his part, Miller was the Mariners' best pitcher as recently as last October — he's also been teasing a revolution while on rehab in the minors.

Granted, you never know when a random injury is going to clear up a pitching logjam. But if there must be a demotion when Miller comes back, Hancock to the bullpen is the closest thing to a promotion the Mariners will be able to achieve.

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