Dodgers clear up questions about the biggest threat to Mariners' World Series dreams

We can talk about the Blue Jays or the Yankees. We can even talk about whatever hot-team-in-February is getting crowned on social media. But if we’re being honest, the road to the Commissioner’s Trophy still goes through Los Angeles until somebody proves otherwise.

That’s the uncomfortable truth for the Seattle Mariners, because the 2025 Mariners weren’t a “maybe next year” story. They won 90 games and took the AL West, then pushed all the way to the ALCS before falling one win short of the World Series. 

And who was waiting on the other side of the bracket? The Dodgers — as predictably as you could imagine. If you’re a Mariners fan trying to map out a real title path, the Dodgers aren’t a hypothetical. They’re the final boss.

Mariners’ World Series dreams quietly meet the Dodgers’ brutal standard

This winter answered the question about 2026 in the most annoying way possible, because the Dodgers aren’t just prepared to run it back — they’ve leveled up in doing so. 

They landed Kyle Tucker on a reported four-year, $240 million deal. They also added Edwin Díaz on a three-year, $69 million contract to shorten games into a highlight reel. 

Seattle’s transaction list since the calendar flipped has the vibe of an organization carefully staying flexible, not one aggressively trying to win the whole thing. The most recent moves are the kind of depth plays smart teams make like acquiring Yosver Zulueta and making a couple minor-league decisions around the edges. 

And look, we’re definitely not going to dunk on pitching depth. The Mariners of all teams know how quickly “we’re fine” turns into “why is a 27-year-old Triple-A arm starting a Game 2 in July?” But if we’re talking World Series dreams, the contrast is brutal: the Dodgers are buying ceiling. The Mariners are protecting floor.

FanGraphs currently projects the Dodgers at 54.4 WAR and the Mariners at 45.0 WAR. That’s a 9.4 WAR gap — basically the difference between a great roster and a great roster that also has cheat codes. 

Projections miss all the time. Teams outperform. Guys break out. Other guys fall off cliffs. But projections are useful for one reason: they tell you where the margin for error lives.

The Dodgers can absorb “only” a good season from a star and still look like the best team on the planet. The Mariners need multiple things to go right at the same time — health, development, lineup bounce-backs, and at least one offensive player becoming a real October problem, just to keep pace.

It’s not “spend like the Dodgers,” because Seattle isn’t going to do that. It’s not “hope the Dodgers get bored,” because they very clearly are not.

The Mariners proved in 2025 they can get close. Now the Dodgers are making the next step painfully clear: close isn’t the goal. Close is just where the real problem starts.