Cubs' Kevin Gausman deal could nix Mariners' best trade fit for George Kirby

It's deadline day in Major League Baseball, and you might be able to cross a trade between the Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs off your possibilities list. Even if Kevin Gausman is not Kevin Gausman! anymore, he's still a dude for the dude-shaped hole that either George Kirby or Emerson Hancock could have filled in Chicago's starting rotation.

Kirby to the Cubs seemed especially realistic as the weekend unfolded, and not simply because word leaked out on Saturday that the Mariners were entertaining interest in the 2023 All-Star righty. According to Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, the Cubs are indeed interested in Kirby and Hancock (albeit to "a lesser extent" for the latter).

Close your eyes, and you can still imagine a trade that would satisfy both teams' needs. Something, say, involving Seiya Suzuki and Matt Shaw would equip the Mariners with two badly needed right-handed bats. In return, the Cubs would get part co-ace, part insurance policy for Gausman, whose ace reputation and 4.38 ERA aren't quite aligned.

Buuuuuut then there's the fine print in the report from Mooney and Sharma. Their article specifically mentions that the Cubs believe that they have the prospect depth to swing further deals, including one for an "an impactful starter under club control beyond this season."

That applies to both Kirby (through 2028) and Hancock (through 2030), but it's hard to see why the Mariners would trade either for prospects. That's what teams do when they give up on a season. After winning two out of three from the Minnesota Twins, the Mariners are not in a position to do that.

If the Cubs didn't have Gausman right now, it would be easier to imagine them concluding they have no choice but to hand over MLB talent for Kirby or Hancock. But since they do have Gausman, they're in a stronger spot to pursue a deal on their terms.

Mariners don't necessarily need to trade another starter after moving Luis Castillo

The other question is how much of an appetite the Mariners even have to move another starting pitcher. They've already offloaded Luis Castillo in a shockingly fruitful trade with the Chicago White Sox.

After that trade went down, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reported that the Mariners would still engage with other teams on Kirby and Hancock. But if ever there was a way for the team to show which way it was leaning, it was by trotting Kirby out there to make his scheduled start against Minnesota on Sunday.

The plan now, per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, is to leave Castillo's spot unfilled and move forward with a traditional five-man rotation. That could still be the plan if the Mariners traded Kirby or Hancock and promoted No. 1 prospect Kade Anderson, but they literally have incentive to wait on that. The league's prospect promotion incentive protocols could potentially work in Seattle's favor if Anderson retains rookie eligibility into 2027. He would need to finish this year with fewer than 50 innings or 45 total days on the active roster.

Of course, no trade scenario is truly dead until the clock strikes 3 p.m. PT on Monday. To wit, maybe the Mariners and Cubs work out a three-team deal that lands Kirby or Hancock on the North Side.

For the time being, though, the fit between the two doesn't look especially great.

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