Crafting a Mariners trade offer for Elly De La Cruz that Reds couldn't refuse

Since even he's out there alluding to his iffy job security, can we agree that Jerry Dipoto should be in butt-saving mode this winter? And since Randy Arozarena is a free agent who likely isn't coming back, can we also agree that Dipoto needs to get a star hitter for the Seattle Mariners' lineup?

If so, good. Now we can talk about what it might take to land Elly De La Cruz from the Cincinnati Reds.

It may not be impossible. The Reds have already tried and failed to extend their star shortstop, who is represented by the notoriously extension-averse Scott Boras. This could explain why the Reds were willing to listen to offers for him at the trade deadline, amid what turned out to be an 87-loss season. So it goes in Cincinnati, where the Reds haven't eclipsed 90 wins since 2013.

It won't be easy, of course. De La Cruz is a 24-year-old with 15.2 career rWAR, and coming off a 30-30 season. He won't be a free agent until after 2029. Even with a projected $7.9 million salary for 2027, he still has a ton of surplus value for the next three years.

Two August reports from Sean McAdam of MassLive and Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic suggest the Reds would need an overpay to move De La Cruz, consisting of either "young major leaguers" (per McAdam) or "players close to the big leagues” (per McCaffrey).

The Mariners could at least get the Reds to listen with this 4-player package

For whatever else can be said of Dipoto's work in his decade on the job, he's undeniably good at keeping a talent pipeline flowing. The Mariners are largely made up of homegrown players, and this season saw them add potentially more by graduating four top-100 prospects: Colt Emerson, Kade Anderson, Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes.

The last three will still have rookie eligibility in 2027, and rank as MLB Pipeline's No. 5, No. 41 and No. 53 prospects, respectively. The Mariners also have three others in the top 100 in Ryan Sloan (No. 11), Felnin Celesten (No. 60) and Jonny Farmelo (No. 83), each of whom has made it as far as Double-A. And according to Baseball America, no 2026 draft pick had a stronger pro debut than Ace Reese. He'll be eligible to be traded the day after the World Series ends.

The point is that the Mariners have so much to offer that they could at least get the Reds to listen if they called about EDLC. From where we're sitting, this offer might even get a yes:

To give credit where it's due, the general shape of this deal was inspired by a proposal from Jage of Words from the Wharf. Four players, one huge price to pay for De La Cruz.

It could easily be Anderson is Ryan Sloan's spot, especially given that Anderson has MLB experience and Sloan does not. Sloan is knocking on the door to MLB, though. And with power stuff and good command, he's likely to be more of a strikeout pitcher than Anderson. That's what the Reds need from their pitchers in order to thrive at Great American Ball Park, where the ball absolutely flies.

Whereas it's unclear how Arroyo fits in Seattle going forward, in Cincinnati he could step right into a second base spot that was by far MLB's worst to the tune of -0.7 rWAR this year. Likewise, Farmelo is an exciting near-future answer for an outfield that ranked 28th with 0.4 rWAR. Nick Becker had a .407 OBP and 46 stolen bases in the low minors this year, and would get to share a system with his older brother, Eric, if he went to the Reds.

Baseball Trade Values has this as the Mariners giving up $100.8 million in surplus value for $66.4 million in surplus value. A significant overpay, in other words.

Imagining the Mariners with Elly De La Cruz in their everyday lineup

If it sounds like too much for the Mariners to give up for one guy, the first question to ask is this: Should the team really be hugging prospects right now?

If you buy into Dipoto's 54 percent strategy for sustainability, then the answer is "always." If you want to win a World Series, less so. This team needs a jolt to take that step to the next level, and there isn't a better time for it than now. With a homegrown core already in place and several next generations standing by, the Mariners have a rare surplus of controllable talent.

What they need more of is star talent. This is what should appeal to them with De La Cruz, though his three years of controllability don't hurt. Imagine him, Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, Josh Naylor, Dominic Canzone, Colt Emerson, Cole Young and Lazaro Montes sharing a lineup for three years. That's a lineup on par with what the Mariners had at the end of 2025, and it wouldn't be a one-off.

Sounds worth it? Sounds worth it.

Whether the Reds would agree is a different question, but we ultimately remain in favor of the Mariners shooting some kind of shot at De La Cruz. Even if it's a fool's hope, it's better than no hope.

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