Buster Olney's bold 2026 prediction for Mariners has undeniable jinx energy

Nobody should need much in the way of convincing that the Seattle Mariners could have a very, very special 2026 season. They are obviously a World Series contender, just as they obviously have a half-century's worth of unfinished business in that regard.

So if ESPN's Buster Olney had merely predicted that the Mariners will win the World Series in 2026, our only note would be "No notes."

If anything, we'd only question whether that was truly a bold prediction for 2026. A proper example of a bold prediction is one that flies in the face of some sort of widely agreed upon certainties. To this end, Eric Karabell demonstrated a solid understanding of the assignment by predicting that the Baltimore Orioles, hot… er, cold off an 87-loss season, will be crowned champs in October.

Buster Olney boldly jinxes the Mariners by predicting a dynasty

Ah, but it's the other part of Olney's prediction that makes one snap to concerned attention. It's the part where he barely avoids going full LeBron James, writing: "The Mariners are early in an extended period of dominance that will resemble what the Astros accomplished from 2015-24."

A Mariners dynasty, in other words. Love the idea. Hate that anyone would put that kind of pressure on them.

This is not to say we can't see it. Indeed, the script for a perfect 2026 was a little too easy to write. You don't need a special pair of eyes to see Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez in their prime, a rotation primed for revenge, and a host of young talent ready to break through.

But a dynasty? It takes three things to make one of those happen: a lot of ingenuity, a lot of luck and, ideally, a lot of money.

The Mariners have that first box checked. Jerry Dipoto has been running things for a decade, and the Executive of the Year award that he won in 2025 was mostly earned by his success at playing the long game. Much of the team's current core is homegrown, and the farm system remains one of the best in the league.

But luck? Luck is fickle. Even good rolls of the dice can backfire, and the Mariners know all too well that a bad roll of the dice can sink a season. And when it comes to roster building swings, there is always a whiff for every hit. Jarred Kelenic and Kyle Lewis should be sharing the outfield with Julio right now, but they're not. Eugenio Suárez was not supposed to hit .189 after coming back to Seattle in a much-celebrated trade, but he did.

As for money, well, the Mariners ain't the Los Angeles Dodgers. Heck, they're not even the Astros when it comes to market size. Between that and their general commitment to mid-sized payrolls under John Stanton, it's hard to imagine the Mariners ever following Houston's lead into luxury tax territory.

The Mariners should do what they can with additional player-friendly deals on top of the ones they've done with Cal and Julio, but roster churn will be inevitable. And the pain is coming, as hitting free agency in coming years will be Randy Arozarena (after 2026), Logan Gilbert (after 2027) and George Kirby (after 2028).

Maybe the Mariners will survive such losses just fine, sort of like how the Astros didn't crumble after losing George Springer, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman to free agency — not to mention Kyle Tucker via the trade market. But it's best to think of their example as the exception, not the rule. And as any Atlanta Braves fan can tell you, even locking up a seemingly unbeatable core is no guarantee of prolonged excellence.

To give credit where it's due, it's the dynasty part where Olney's prediction truly becomes bold. But rather than an achievable outcome, we'll keep it in our minds only as a best-case hypothetical. And after going 0-for-their-first-49, the Mariners certainly need to focus just on winning one World Series.