Bryce Miller's step forward could be too little, too late as Mariners' opener looms

Bryce Miller threw a baseball yesterday, but that's about the extent of the good news for the Seattle Mariners regarding his oblique injury. The real question is whether he'll open 2026 on the injured list, and nothing about his situation makes one lean toward optimism.

As per Tim Booth of The Seattle Times, Miller threw about 30 pitches in a bullpen session on Tuesday. It beats what happened the last time he tried to throw a bullpen, with that effort ending after just a few throws because of lingering discomfort.

But now for the caveats:

• Miller was only throwing at around 80 percent effort
• He was only throwing 91 mph
• He switched to a lighter baseball for his last few throws

The plan is for the 27-year-old to ramp things up every three days. As such, he'll throw at 90 percent next time and then at 100 percent after that, which would be early next week.

It's a solid plan, but the ticking clock is getting loud. The Mariners open their 2026 season next Thursday.

Bryce Miller's recovery timeline sure seems pointed to an IL stint to open 2026

Granted, Miller's spot in the rotation isn't due up until March 30 against the New York Yankees. But that still only gives him 12 days to make sure the oblique is good to go, and that's only half the equation.

Miller also needs to face hitters and ramp up his pitch count. He only made one Cactus League appearance prior to experiencing the oblique issue, and that one only saw him throw 21 pitches. There's a lot of valley between there and his average of 86 per start.

Caution is another element of this equation. This is not the time of year to be rushing guys through injury recoveries. And while J.P. Crawford's situation deserves scrutiny, the Mariners have a good track record of handling pitching injuries well.

Miller, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo all missed ample time with injuries last season, but what mattered is that all four were able to contribute in October. And now, what matters just as much is that none of their injuries spiraled into something truly bad.

You don't mess with a secret sauce like that, and least of all when you have viable alternatives. And in Emerson Hancock and Cooper Criswell, the Mariners have two to take Miller's spot.

Assuming Miller does start the year on the IL — Shannon Drayer of Seattle Sports referred to that as a "likely" outcome — the hope will be that he'll only miss one or two starts. Any more than that would be a surprise, as this is not anything like the bone spur issue that cost him a good chunk of the 2025 season.

Even so, every game counts. And since he was quietly their best pitcher in 2024, any games missed by Miller this year is likely to be a net negative for the Mariners.