Below-the-hood metrics show Mariners infielder close to scorching streak

The Seattle Mariners have had their share of frustrating losses already, and their 8-3 defeat to the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday certainly added to the pile. It's one of those games where the missed opportunities stick out like so many sore thumbs.

Even tough losses can have silver linings, however. And in this case, we would like to present the case that J.P. Crawford had his most encouraging game of the season.

The 30-year-old shortstop collected two of Seattle's six hits, including a two-run single that briefly cut Boston's lead to 4-3 in the top of the sixth. Yet his most promising knock was arguably his two-out single in the second, which left his bat at 106.8 mph.

J.P. Crawford is beginning to hit the ball with authority, and it's about time

That 106.8 mph bolt represents Crawford's hardest-hit ball of the season, and you might say he had been building up to it. Of the other seven batted balls of at least 100 mph he has this season, three came in the Mariners' previous series against the Toronto Blue Jays.

To be clear, Crawford still has a long way to go in rescuing his overall contact quality. He's averaging just 84.3 mph on his batted balls, which places him in the bottom three percent of all hitters. This is after he was in the 20th percentile with an average of 87.5 mph in 2024, wherein his OPS plummeted to .625 from a career-high .818 in 2023.

Crawford's drop in production last year came with a solid excuse. He was injured for a good chunk of the year, notably going on the IL with an oblique strain in April and a fractured hand in July. He was eager to put these injuries behind him in spring training, and he seemed to find something when he launched a 107.9 mph, 401-foot homer on March 9.

“I've been searching for it for a year and some change now,” Crawford said, per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. “But you just try to do little tweaks and some things to feel what's right, and something finally clicked for me. Knock on wood, I’ll just keep working on it, and we’ll be in a good spot.”

Several weeks later, we're still waiting on Crawford's first homer of the regular season. And as nice as the recent exit velo surge is, it does bear noting that there isn't a clear explanation for it. His mechanics look the same and he hasn't made like Cal Raleigh and adopted the torpedo bat.

However, power is really the only offensive ability Crawford has yet to unlock. He's getting on base just fine with a team-high .383 OBP, and a whiff rate in the 75th percentile should eventually result in his strikeout rate coming down from a relatively elevated 22.6 percent.

As frustrating as it has been to wait for Crawford to break out, there's an argument that his approach alone should earn him a move up the lineup. Dan Wilson has used him exclusively out of the No. 9 hole, which feels wasteful in context of the .278 OBP the team has gotten out of the leadoff spot.

Power would be more of a nice-to-have in the leadoff spot, but we know from Crawford's Driveline-aided 19-homer outburst from 2023 that he should have more to offer. And if his recent swings are any indication, it may not be long before the Mariners welcome his pop back.