Arrow for Mariners prospect chosen 7 picks after Colt Emerson is pointing down

Jonny Farmelo is becoming one of the trickier kinds of prospects to evaluate, because the Mariners still have plenty of reasons to believe in the player while the numbers keep making that belief harder to defend.

We’re not saying the Mariners should panic. Farmelo is still only 21 years old. But when ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel points the arrow down on Farmelo, the fairest response is probably a slow nod with mild annoyance.

Farmelo was always going to require patience. Seattle took him 29th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, seven picks after Colt Emerson went at No. 22, as part of a fascinating prep-heavy Day 1 class that also included Tai Peete at No. 30. Emerson has turned into the crown jewel of the system. Farmelo, meanwhile, is still trying to turn his athletic promise into actual offensive momentum.  

Jonny Farmelo’s High-A struggles put Mariners’ prospect optimism on notice

That comparison is not totally fair, because Emerson is running a different race at this point. But it’s impossible to ignore. When two players are taken that close together, in the same draft, by the same organization, their paths are going to be viewed next to each other whether that is tidy or not. Emerson has become the shiny example of Seattle’s position-player development dream. Farmelo has become the reminder that the dream can get tricky.

The frustrating part is that the ingredients are still there. Farmelo has the kind of outfield profile that made sense for a Mariners organization trying to build waves of athletic talent instead of waiting around for one perfect prospect class to save the day.

But eventually, the bat has to start doing the talking. Right now, it’s pretty much mumbling. 

At High-A Everett, Farmelo’s line hasn't been loud enough to quiet the concerns. He has a .200/.343/.388 slash line with three homers, a 17.1 percent walk rate, a 26.7 percent strikeout rate and a 103 wRC+ through his 2026 High-A work. The on-base skill is giving him a floor. But the swing-and-miss is still hanging around, and the impact has not shown up in a way that makes you feel like the breakout is already brewing.  

Farmelo is not failing so loudly that we can write him off. But he's not succeeding loudly enough to keep the arrow from dipping. He’s just kind of there, and “kind of there” is a dangerous place for a toolsy young hitter who has already lost important development time to injuries.

The left-on-left issue is there as well. The broader concern with Farmelo is that the profile still has enough holes for opponents to attack. If left-handed pitching keeps giving him trouble, and the strikeouts remain part of the deal, the Mariners are left waiting on a power breakout that has to be big enough to justify the swing-and-miss.

A 17.1 percent walk rate is genuinely encouraging. We shouldn’t swat that away. Young hitters who control the zone have something to build on, and Farmelo deserves credit for not turning this into a total chase-fest. But at some point, selective damage matters more than selective survival.

Seattle badly needs some of these hitting prospects to begin separating themselves. Emerson is the obvious headliner. But the early-season chill around Farmelo, Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes adds a little nervous energy to the whole conversation. The Mariners still have real talent in the system, but the position-player group cannot live on projection forever.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow