Alex Bregman contract details with Red Sox show why Mariners were never a fit

With the Alex Bregman sweepstakes coming to a close, the details of his deal with the Boston Red Sox have emerged. Before factoring in deferrals, Bregman’s contract stands at three years and $120 million.

However, we now know that he will receive $20 million annually, with an additional $20 million deferred each year after the conclusion of his contract. This structure helps the Red Sox navigate luxury tax concerns, but what’s more intriguing is the price tag itself, one that was never in the realm of possibility for the Mariners.

Even before deferrals, whether it was $30 million or $40 million per year, the Mariners were never likely to entertain such an offer for the talented third baseman. It’s no secret that Seattle has been in need of an upgrade at the hot corner for some time. While Jorge Polanco is now expected to fill the void, it remains a question mark. However, investing in Bregman at this price point, considering his career trajectory and the ballpark factors, was never a match for Seattle’s philosophy.

Why couldn't the Mariners entertain signing Alex Bregman in free agency?

Bregman is undoubtedly a valuable player, but his profile does not align with the Mariners' current strategy. Seattle has been targeting players with upside, whereas Bregman has been on a steady decline.

Since 2019, his batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS have all gradually dipped. Once known for his mature approach at the plate, he has seen a significant drop in his walk rate, plummeting from 92 walks in 2023 to just 44 in 2024. The last acquisition the Mariners made with a 7% walk rate was Adam Frazier, and we know how that ended.

While Bregman will barrel up more balls than Frazier, what Frazier lacked in barrel percentage, he made up for with elite launch angle and sweet-spot contact skills. Yet, even with those strengths, he still endured the worst season of his career in Seattle due to the complexities of hitting in T-Mobile Park. The same environmental challenges that hampered Frazier could similarly impact Bregman, making the Mariners' reluctance to pursue him a logical decision. Bregman, for reference, has a .259/.325/.400 line in 53 career games at T-Mobile.

Another concern is his hitting profile. Primarily a pull hitter, Bregman does not spray the ball around the field as much as Seattle would prefer. That trait, combined with the natural regression that hitters often experience when moving from a hitter-friendly park to a pitcher's paradise like T-Mobile Park, sets up a recipe for disappointment.

The Mariners, and their fans, should be relieved that they did not make a push for Bregman. Had Seattle pursued this kind of contract, it would have been a financial misstep that could have further fueled frustration with an already cost-conscious front office. Such a move could have ignited chaos within the fanbase, making 2025 and beyond even more contentious.

Ultimately, Bregman landing in Boston is a fitting conclusion to this free agency saga. For the Mariners, the decision to pass on him was not just about the money — it was about long-term sustainability. And in the end, avoiding this deal may turn out to be one of Seattle’s smarter moves of the offseason.