A long-shot Mariners trade offer for Bryce Harper to test John Stanton's firewall

The Seattle Mariners need to add at least one impact hitter this winter, and their attitude should be to leave no stone unturned. If the Philadelphia Phillies put Bryce Harper on the market, that's worth at least a conversation between Jerry Dipoto and Dave Dombrowski.

Though the Phillies made the playoffs, their season ended not long after the Mariners' own season wrapped up on September 27. Both clubs are now under pressure to repair a flawed contention model. For the Phillies, this could mean trading Harper or Kyle Schwarber, though the former seems more likely to go.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic insinuated as much on October 2, writing that the Phillies would be "reluctant" to move Schwarber. He's their "heart and soul," whereas Harper has had recent disagreements with Dombrowski and Don Mattingly that have broken containment.

Harper just turned 34 on October 16, yet the two-time NL MVP still has gas in the tank. He led the NL in walks this year while also posting a 131 OPS+ and 29 home runs. The $125.7 million he has remaining on his contract through 2031 is reasonable.

Once again turning to Rosenthal, though, here's the twist: To get Harper to waive a no-trade clause, Harper's prospective new team might have to offer him a contract extension.

A Mariners-Phillies trade proposal that would thread multiple needles to get Bryce Harper to Seattle

It's the possibility for an extension as a must-have that really makes Harper a long shot for the Mariners. It would go against owner John Stanton's philosophy when it comes to how and when to commit to players, which he spelled out in no uncertain terms to Adam Jude of The Seattle Times in September:

"We have been willing to spend money when we think it’ll make a difference. We also believe in players we acquire in the draft, players we’re able to extend. I’m excited about having a 25-year-old Julio Rodríguez signed for over a decade, that throughout his 20s he’ll be a Seattle Mariner, and hopefully for the rest of his career. But particularly through his 20s he’ll be here. And bluntly, I’d much rather do that than sign a 30-year-old or 31-year-old star player who had been a star in their 20s to play through their 30s and maybe through 40 years old. I think you’re far better off with players earlier in their career in the long term, and they happen to be less expensive because of the way the economics of baseball work. That’s the reason for the payroll that we’ve got. It’s the product of hiring the right players and have that fit."

John Stanton

Given Harper's age, it would be hard to imagine Stanton doing a five-year, $125.7 million deal with the slugger as a free agent if the chance presented itself. An even longer, more expensive commitment would be harder to imagine. Even if it was just two additional years to take him through his age-40 season, those years valued at his current AAV would push the total commitment to something like seven years, $175 million.

But what if there's a way to spend that much money on Harper without actually spending that much money on Harper? What if the Mariners and Phillies made a trade like this:

There's a lot going on here, and it's important to note that Harper isn't the only one who would have to waive a no-trade clause. Naylor would, too, and maybe he'd need incentive to do so as well.

That said, Baseball Trade Values does rate this proposal as fair based on its assessment of all the involved players' surplus value. Let's speedrun why it works for the Phillies:

• Josh Naylor: They'd save money by swapping a first baseman owed $125.7 million over five years for one owed $81.2 million over four years
• George Kirby: They'd get an All-Star starting pitcher with two remaining years of club control
• Michael Arroyo: He's a top-100 prospect whose bat would be more likely to overrule his defensive concerns at Citizens Bank Park

As for the Mariners, even the age gap between Harper (34) and Naylor (29) doesn't distract from the fact that Harper is simply the better player. Naylor is the kind of player who is assumed to have intangible value, and the Mariners discovered the dark side of that as he played through a wrist injury to post -0.2 rWAR in 2026. Even at his age, you can still project Harper's bat to remain above-average beyond 2026.

The Mariners can otherwise spare Kirby, who's part of a talented six-man rotation that also has top prospect Ryan Sloan just about ready to knock on the door. Losing Arroyo would arguably hurt more, but only if you assume he's cut out for left field at T-Mobile Park. Spoiler alert: He might not be.

The trade alone would put another $125.7 million on the Mariners' books, but it would mean shedding $81.2 million owed to Naylor and, say, $25 million in projected salary for Kirby through the end of his arbitration eligibility in 2028. So even if they tacked on two more years and $50 million to Harper's contract, the net additional payroll commitment wouldn't really be $175 million. It would be closer to $70 million. Even knowing how old Harper is, that doesn't sound so bad.

For his part, Orion Kerkering would be a dandy of a throw-in. He's fallen out of favor in Philly, yet he has a career 127 ERA+ and 10.2 K/9 over 198 career appearances in the majors. He's still just 25 and controlled through 2029, and therefore a potential multi-year weapon for the bullpen if the Mariners could smooth out his rough edges.

Again, the Mariners getting Harper is a long shot. This isn't so much an attempt to predict how it will happen as an exercise in imagining how it would have to happen. Ultimately, there will be a non-zero chance of the Mariners landing Harper if the Phillies so much as make him available. After that, it would be up to how bold and creative Stanton and Dipoto want to get.

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