The August 3 trade deadline will be here any minute, yet also not a moment too soon as far as the Seattle Mariners are concerned. But instead of casting a wide net for righty hitters and proven relievers in hopes of lucking out, they're better off exercising caution with where they cast their line.
Some of the trade targets that should be on their radar are hot. Taylor Ward, for example, has recovered from a rough spell in May and June to post an .838 OPS in July. Then there's Mason Miller, who's been hotter than any reliever in MLB for almost a year now.
But if we're going to play "Hot or Not?" with potential Mariners trade targets, it's just as important to focus on the other side of the equation.
The Mariners must beware 3 cold hitters in San Francisco, Denver and Anaheim
INF/OF Casey Schmitt, San Francisco Giants
Look, we like the idea of Schmitt in a Mariners uniform. And since the brass is apparently willing to trade Emerson Hancock, there's a ready-made trade concept right there.
Just in the abstract, though, Schmitt is a "buyer beware" trade target because of how volatile he is at the plate. He swings and misses a lot and rarely walks. And that has especially been the case lately, as his last 38 games have yielded a .243/.270/.375 slash line with 31 strikeouts against four walks.
As far as the Mariners are concerned, that Schmitt is hitting .323 against lefties might be the only thing that still matters. But if the Giants insist on more than Hancock, that's when it's time to draw the line.
INF/OF Willi Castro, Colorado Rockies
Castro has been on our radar as a potential fit for the Mariners for a while now. And even as recently as late June, acquiring him looked like a nifty way to hack the trade deadline.
Now? Less so. He's batting just .196 this month, with 21 strikeouts against three walks. This stretch has also compounded some rough splits away from Coors Field, as he now has a .640 OPS on the road compared to a .798 OPS at home.
As a switch-hitter who can play all over the infield and in the outfield, Castro still has some appeal as a super-utility type. But relative to other trade targets, he should be Plan Z.
DH Jorge Soler, Los Angeles Angels
There's suddenly buzz about the Angels being open to anything at the trade deadline, so maybe a trade between AL West rivals isn't so far-fetched.
Best steer clear of Soler, though. He hasn't even been that good against lefties (.599 OPS) and he's been abysmal at the dish so far in July. In 14 games, he has a .472 OPS and no home runs.
It still doesn't feel that long ago that the Atlanta Braves acquired Soler as an undervalued asset ahead of the 2021 trade deadline, after which he went on to win World Series MVP. In actuality, that was five years ago and he hasn't been a productive everyday hitter since 2024.
The Mariners must also beware 3 cold relievers in St. Louis, Denver and Miami
RHP Riley O'Brien, St. Louis Cardinals
It would be a cool story if the Mariners acquired O'Brien. He's a local guy who briefly pitched for Seattle in 2022, and this year saw him become an unlikely All-Star.
Go back over his last 20 appearances, though, and it looks rough. O'Brien has handled 19.2 innings and allowed 11 earned runs on 16 hits and 15 walks, plus six hit-by-pitches. That's not even counting the wayward fastball in the All-Star Game that had everyone fearing a serious injury to Tampa Bay Rays slugger Junior Caminero.
Stuff like this makes it harder to ignore the essential truth of O'Brien's All-Star rise. The fastball velocity is there and he gets ground balls, but he doesn't have any of the other hallmarks of a true shutdown reliever.
RHP Antonio Senzatela, Colorado Rockies
Senzatela was a fun story earlier in the year. He had an ERA down around 1.00 through 15 appearances, marking quite the turnaround from the 6.65 ERA he posted as a starter last season.
Well, he has an 8.00 ERA in his last 16 appearances. That's with 29 hits allowed in just 18.0 innings, going to show that he hasn't fully conquered the sheer hittability that dogged him when he was working out of the Rockies rotation.
True, he does have a 2.39 ERA away from Coors Field. Like O'Brien, though, fastball velocity is really the only thing that stands out when taking a deeper dive into Senzatela's metrics. The Mariners can and should do better in trying to upgrade their bullpen.
RHP Pete Fairbanks, Miami Marlins
Remember when the Marlins swept the Mariners in Miami right before the All-Star break? Well, they haven't won since then. That seems likely to turn their switch from "buyer" to "seller."
What makes Fairbanks interesting is that he's the opposite of O'Brien and Senzatela. The fastball velocity is top-notch at an average of 97.3 mph, and he pairs it with a strikeout rate that ranks among the top 10 percent of all pitchers.
And yet, he has a 7.42 ERA for the season. And not only that, but an 8.36 ERA with five home runs and seven walks allowed just in his last 15 appearances. It's proof that even when a guy has good stuff, it doesn't matter if he can't throw strikes or avoid barrels.
