3 way-too-early targets for Mariners in 2025-26 MLB free agency

Some believe that it's far too soon to start discussing offseason plans, especially with the vast majority of the 2025 season yet to be played. However, acknowledging which players will hit free agency could inform other long-term roster decisions like extensions and trades, both actions the Seattle Mariners could be taking sooner than one might think.

MLB Trade Rumors recently published the April version of their 2025-26 Free Agent rankings, and to say there are a few names that could help the Mariners would be an understatement. The unfortunate reality is that Seattle's fiscal tendencies will likely eliminate them from contending for any of the top names like Kyle Tucker, and their the strength of their rotation further limits their options given the pitcher-heavy composition of the group.

Nonetheless, there are a few realistic targets for the team this upcoming winter.

The Mariners should already be targeting these 3 hitters on the upcoming free agent market

1B Luis Arráez (Honorable Mention for MLBTR)

One of the many possible reasons for depressed offensive production at T-Mobile Park is the relatively low temperatures and altitude of Seattle. This "marine layer" most notably affects home run hitters who seek to lift the ball and maximize exit velocity. With cold and heavy air, batted balls don't sail as far and more often end up as harmless flyouts than extra base hits.

Since the front office does not have control over the climate conditions of the place they call home, why not look for a hitter whose natural profile would synergize well with the environment?

Arráez fits an important but fading niche in the sport of baseball. He chooses to maximize batting average over power and his Baseball Savant page illustrates this best. He's among the league's worst when it comes to bat speed and hard-hit rate, but he's unbeatable at making contact and placing it right where he needs to be, often in the infield. In some ways, his approach mimics that of Ichiro Suzuki.

Those that are analytically-minded would point out that his overall production at the plate is still relatively low with an OPS+ of just 106 last year despite winning his third consecutive batting title.

While that may be true, he would still be a good fit for the Mariners, specifically because his hitting wouldn't be affected too negatively by being at T-Mobile Park and Seattle has had a painful strikeout and batting average problem for quite some time. Don't expect any defensive highlights or 30-home run seasons from him, but a couple of 200-hit campaigns wouldn't be out of the question.

SS Bo Bichette (No. 3 for MLBTR)

Over the past several years, it feels like shortstop has been the only stable role on the infield, with J.P. Crawford holding down the fort since signing a five-year deal with the team heading into 2022. With 2026 being the final year of this contract and his performance starting to wane, his presence shouldn't preclude the front office from looking for an upgrade.

If he had hit free agency after 2023, Bichette would be described as anything but affordable. Yet after a completely lackluster 2024, his ability to be a consistent contributor has now been called into question.

So far, his 2025 numbers have been more in line with his career averages. Across 89 plate appearances, he's at a 118 OPS+ with eight doubles, more than anyone in the American League. He isn't the greatest defensive shortstop the world has ever seen but his bat might be enough to compensate for that.

The catch with Bichette is that if he has a great year, his stock will go up as will his market price, pushing Seattle further and further away from possibly making a deal. Given his precedent performance and his young age of just 27 years old, he's estimated to sign a long-term deal around the $200 million mark, a price tag that would be nigh unthinkable for the Mariners.

However, if he ends up with another average or below-average year heading into the open market, Seattle could sign him to a shorter-term prove-it deal with a lower total value.

3B Munetaka Murakami (No. 4 for MLBTR)

While MLB has received a steady stream of NPB pitchers recently, the inflow of position players from Japan has been considerably slower and less hyped. Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida are the two most notable big league signings, and neither signed for more than $90 million.

Murakami could buck that trend this offseason. As a 25-year old, he has already amassed 224 home runs and a career OPS of .945 over seven NPB seasons. He is in the final year of his contract with the Yakult Swallows before being posted.

If he manages to carry his .270/.395/.550 NPB slash line into MLB, he'll be one of the most valuable position players on the market. However, there are quite a few uncertainties that he'll be able to replicate his success in the United States. First and foremost, there are worries that he'll be able to catch up to the higher velocities in MLB. As an example, Masataka Yoshida averaged a .960 OPS across his seven NPB seasons before signing with Boston and being an overall lukewarm hitter, averaging just a .776 OPS over his two seasons thus far.

If teams are fully bought-in to his young age and local success, it wouldn't be surprising to see him ink a contract between $200-300 million.

On the other hand, if he continues the slight regression he's had over the past two NPB seasons and doesn't do much to ease concerns about how he'll do against the best pitchers in the world, he could end up on a cheaper, shorter deal. This could open the door for the Mariners to solve one of their infield problems, at least for a few years.