3 things that will make the Mariners' 2nd half, and 2 things that could break it

The Seattle Mariners' sweep over the Detroit Tigers put them in a good position heading into the All-Star break. With a 51-45 record, they lead the Tampa Bay Rays by 1.5 games for the third AL Wild Card spot, and trail the Houston Astros by 5.0 games in the AL West.

Ultimately, the season will come down to how the team plays down the stretch in the second half. Here are three things that could make the Mariners' second half, and two that could break it.

What will make (or break) the 2nd half of the Mariners' season

Make: Julio Rodríguez's annual second-half heater

It's beginning to feel like a tradition at this point, isn't it? Julio Rodríguez seems to be at his best in the second half. September has been the best month of his career, when he boasts a .919 OPS. In August, he is right behind, with a .917 OPS. Overall, he holds a .903 career OPS post-All-Star break, and a .737 career OPS before the Midsummer Classic.

The three-time All-Star currently has the worst slash line of his career, but that could soon change. If Rodríguez goes on the second-half heater he is absolutely capable of, not only will his season change, the Mariners' season could change as well. The team already has Cal Raleigh playing at an MVP-level. If Rodríguez can do it too, the lineup may be unstoppable.

Break: Rotation doesn't hold together

It feels like the Mariners' starting rotation is being held together at the seams. Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo have been brilliant atop the rotation, but behind them are three days of uncertainty. Logan Gilbert has a 3.39 ERA in 12 starts, but he's only thrown 61 innings, averaging just over 5 innings per start. George Kirby, similarly, has thrown only 54 innings in 10 starts, averaging 5.1 innings per start. He's looked better lately, but his ERA still sits at 4.50 after a few rough outings early.

The fifth spot in the rotation has been a mixture of Logan Evans (3.75 ERA, 9 GS) and Emerson Hancock (5.47 ERA, 15 GS). Bryce Miller also could return, but he has struggled this year too (5.73 ERA, 10 GS).

At the end of the day, the Mariners need to have more than two starters they can rely upon for six solid innings by the time they reach the postseason. Until Kirby and Gilbert can consistently pitch deeper into games, it's hard to have faith in the rotation come October.

Make: Trade Deadline brings reinforcements

At this point, the Mariners' positional needs are clear as day. Dominic Canzone is holding his own in right field, and the Luke Raley-Donovan Solano platoon has been acceptable at first base. Second base, while still a weak spot, has been turned over to Cole Young, and it's unlikely the team would want to move their former No. 3 prospect to the bench this early in his career.

That leaves third base as the clear spot to upgrade. Ben Williamson has done his best, with 1.4bWAR and an 81 OPS+ to his name. However, there are names out there to bring in. If Seattle could swing a trade for, say, Eugenio Suárez, it would add an impact bat to the lineup and strengthen the Seattle's weakest spot in the lineup. That could be just the boost the Mariners need to get over the hump.

Break: The bullpen runs out of gas

The Mariners' pen has seen a lot of use this season. Eduard Bazardo has thrown the sixth-most innings of any reliever (48.2), while Carlos Vargas is 20th (44.2). Gabe Speier and Andrés Muñoz are also both over 36 innings, and Matt Brash has already thrown more than 20 innings despite being on the injured list until May.

The bullpen could break down and run out of gas by the end of the season. Extra-inning games and lack of support from the back end of the rotation has been the main culprit, but the bullpen is definitely on uneven ground heading into the stretch run of the season.

Make: Dominic Canzone solidifies his place

Is Canzone the biggest X-factor in the Mariners' lineup? Since being recalled, the right-fielder has hit .319 with a .540 slugging percentage and a 160 OPS+. He's hit six home runs and driven in ten runs in the thirty games since he was called up, and has accumulated 0.9 bWAR.

If Canzone can keep up this type of production, the Mariners suddenly have one of the deepest lineups in the league. Can he be this year's Victor Robles, and solidify his place in the outfield long-term? It would go a long way towards making the Mariners true World Series contenders.