3 signs that Mariners' Julio Rodríguez is primed for MVP-level breakout

Every preseason for the past few years, we talk about how Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez has the potential to be a serious candidate for the AL MVP award.

Then, for the first few months of every season, we're forced to watch him struggle with bad swing decisions and strikeouts before finally putting it all together in the final few months of the season. Last year, this ramp-up happened too late for him to receive any MVP votes or help push the team to a postseason spot.

This year, with arguably even more responsibility to shoulder in a struggling offense, there are a few signs that his 2025 season could his best yet.

Here are 3 reasons that Julio Rodríguez's MVP-level breakout could come soon

He's walking more than ever

Like many sluggers, Rodríguez often finds himself swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone. His career chase rate of 36.2 percent is well above the MLB average of 28.5. This is a significant contributor to his high strikeout rate and more importantly, a low career walk rate of just 6.8 percent.

However, he seems to have made some major improvements to his plate discipline. His current walk rate of 13.0 percent is by far the best mark he's had so far for a single season. Despite a batting average of just .200 in 2025, his on-base percentage of .325 is on par with previous years where he was batting closer to .280.

He's still struggling immensely with making contact against breaking balls (41.5 whiff percentage) and offspeed pitches (58.3 whiff percentage) this season, but he's findings ways to work his way back in counts. We'll have to wait and see whether these changes are long-term improvements or the product of a small sample size, but things are moving in the right direction on this front.

He's hitting the ball harder than ever

One thing that has never been a concern for Rodríguez is his ability to hit the ball with authority. When bat tracking was first made publicly available on Statcast, his bat speed was among the best in baseball along with noted sluggers like Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Ronald Acuña Jr.

This year, his hard-hit rate of 54.5 percent and average exit velocity of 93.1 mph are better than his previous single-season personal bests. This hasn't yet translated into a ton of extra-base hits or home runs, but it's only a matter time before more of his batted balls start ending up in the seats.

He's off to a better start than usual

As mentioned earlier, Rodríguez's tendency to take time to thaw has been an known issue for quite some time. In fact, it's something the team actively tried to get ahead of during spring training.

His .740 OPS for the season thus far is still far from ideal. But historically, this is actually a good sign. In 2024, he had a .606 OPS across March/April and in 2022, he had a .544 OPS over the same span. His 2023 OPS of .743 during the first month of games is still the hottest start he's had to a season in his career, and that year ended with another Silver Slugger award and placing fourth in MVP voting.

If he picks up the pace for the final two weeks of April, he could very well be on the way to reaching new heights.