3 offseason decisions the 2026 Seattle Mariners are paying for in August

For Seattle Mariners fans, a season that started with so much promise is now on a collision course with an iceberg. Nobody expected them to be eight games under .500 at any point, much less with 34 games left in the season.

It wasn't supposed to be like this for good reasons. The Mariners had one of their all-time great campaigns in 2025, winning the AL West and coming just eight outs short of the World Series. Even looking back now, their ensuing offseason hardly resembles a disaster. If nothing else, they didn't acquire or bring back multiple players who would have contributed to further sinking the 2026 season.

This said, it's fair to take issue with several broad decisions the Mariners made during the 2025-26 offseason. We've narrowed down three in particular that loom large in August.

These Mariners offseason strategies were short-sighted and have done more harm than good

Failing to protect against regression

If there was a theme to the Mariners' actions after last season, it was running it back. They kept the same starting rotation in place, and the early re-signing of Josh Naylor to a $95 million contract ensured that he would again anchor the lineup with Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena.

It's not that anyone was ignoring the threat of regression. Nobody expected Raleigh to hit 60 home runs again. And for Julio, a 30-30 season with 6.6 rWAR always looked like a ceiling, not a floor. Yet there were all sorts of rationalizations at play to justify the run-it-back strategy. Those two wouldn't regress that much! Ditto for Arozarena and Naylor! Cole Young and Colt Emerson would break out! And look, here's Brendan Donovan!

It all feels comically optimistic now. Whereas the Mariners got 19.9 rWAR from their core offensive foursome in 2025, it's at 6.1 total rWAR in 2026. The Emerson breakout never came, as he wasn't ready yet and apparently injured, to boot. Even the rotation has been wonky, particularly when Bryan Woo and George Kirby pitch on the road.

Instead of acting like they had cracked the code, the Mariners should have committed to refining the code instead. That way, they might have determined that they needed another major splash instead of a variation on more of the same.

Turning third base into a wild card

If anyone's going to push back on all of the above, the best way to do it is by noting that the trade for Donovan was meant to be the big splash. It was a major deal at the time, and he has been a key hitter when healthy.

At the same time, he's also part of the season the Mariners have gotten just 0.1 rWAR from third base. It was never his natural position, and that is apparent every time a ball is hit in his direction. The Mariners unfortunately weren't better off with Emerson or J.P. Crawford at third base, probably because each is a natural shortstop. Neither ever looked like the answer at the hot corner.

There's another dimension out there in which Seattle's post-Naylor splash was a deal with Kazuma Okamoto. Unlikely in this dimension, perhaps, but the result would have been a playable third baseman with 26 home runs.

Stopping the bullpen makeover at Jose A. Ferrer

You have to give Jerry Dipoto this much: the trade for Ferrer has proven to be a masterstroke. Harry Ford isn't missed (not yet, anyway), whereas even Ferrer's solid 3.59 ERA understates how crucial his left arm has been for Dan Wilson.

Yet apart from him and Cooper Criswell, the Mariners largely stuck to the same run-it-back logic in putting together a bullpen for the 2026 season. It was always risky, as it required trusting that the core members of the 2025 pen would be able to avoid regression. Relievers generally aren't known for that in the best of times, much less after a deep playoff run.

Well, Carlos Vargas has missed the whole season and Criswell and Matt Brash have been out since June. This is how we've all gotten to know guys like Michael Rucker, Nick Davila and other randos who have appeared out of Seattle's pen. Its 6.20 ERA since the All-Star break is the result.

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