3 blockbuster trade proposals to get Tarik Skubal from Tigers to Mariners

If a major blockbuster trade is going to happen this winter, it could involve Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. And since the Seattle Mariners are reportedly expected to be in on the soon-to-be two-time Cy Young Award winner, it's fair to ask: What might it take to get him to the Pacific Northwest?

It wasn't even two years ago that a similar situation unfolded on the winter trade market. In February of 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers cashed in Corbin Burnes in a trade with the Baltimore Orioles centered on three pillars: a competitive balance pick, a current top-100 prospect (Joey Ortiz) and a former top-100 prospect (DL Hall).

Yet even if Skubal is similar to Burnes in that he's a Cy Young Award winner who's headed into his walk year in 2026, he's likely significantly more valuable. Baseball Trade Values estimates Skubal's surplus value at $51.6 million, about $20 million north of where Burnes was when he got traded.

It is reasonable to assume that, like Burnes, Skubal would strictly be a one-year rental. Even now, his market value might be as high as $400 million. Only a few teams can do a deal like that, and the Mariners are not one of them.

It also seems like a reasonable assumption that any deal between Seattle and Detroit won't have a bad-contract-swap element. The Tigers won't want to dilute Skubal's value by attaching him to Javier Báez. Likewise, the Mariners won't want to increase their acquisition cost by insisting the Tigers take on Luis Castillo or Randy Arozarena.

As for what could be possible, let's assess three hypothetically fair trade pitches.

3 trade proposals to get Tarik Skubal from the Tigers to the Mariners

Trade 3: A Mid-Rotation Starter and a No. 1 Prospect

Mariners get LHP Tarik Skubal; Tigers get RHP Bryce Miller, SS Colt Emerson

Miller had a down year in 2025, but he was the Mariners' best pitcher by the end of the postseason — which mirrors what he was when he led the team's hurlers with 3.4 rWAR in 2024. He is 27 and under club control through 2029, and would thus give the Tigers an instant and controllable replacement for Skubal.

Emerson is the Mariners' best prospect and the No. 9 prospect in all of baseball for MLB Pipeline. He's one of the best pure hitters in the minors, and he's quickly turned himself into a potential Gold Glover at shortstop. After making it to Triple-A this year, his major league debut is likely near.

But would the Mariners really sacrifice their No. 1 prospect for a one-year rental? And even if they would be glad to have Emerson, would the Tigers accept a guy with a seemingly compromised elbow as a centerpiece for Skubal? Both seem doubtful.

Trade 2: An Established Ace and a Mid-Level Prospect

Mariners get LHP Tarik Skubal; Tigers get RHP Logan Gilbert, 2B Michael Arroyo

This is more like it, in part because Gilbert is simply a better pitcher than Miller. He even had a higher strikeout rate than Skubal this year, barely edging him 32.3 percent to 32.2 percent. It was also just last year that Gilbert led all of MLB in innings and WHIP.

Arroyo, meanwhile, is arguably under-ranked as MLB Pipeline's No. 63 prospect. He's gotten on base at a .400 clip in each of the last two minor league seasons, and the power outage (i.e., 2 HR in 56 G) he suffered at Double-A Arkansas can be partly explained by Dickey-Stephens Park's huge dimensions.

And yet, this deal looks better for the Mariners than it does for the Tigers. Gilbert wasn't the same after returning from an arm injury this season, and he's only under club control for two more years. And while Arroyo is a solid prospect, he's not exactly centerpiece material.

Trade 1: What the Tigers (Probably) Actually Want

Mariners get LHP Tarik Skubal; Tigers get LHP Kade Anderson, RF Lazaro Montes

If it's a question of what would get Detroit to budge on Skubal, one AL executive threw this out to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com in October: “It would have to be two or three Top 100 type guys. Skubal is at another level from Burnes, but that return is a good floor.”

This trade would fit the bill, as it would bring MLB Pipeline's No. 23 and No. 29 prospects to Detroit in Anderson and Montes, respectively. The Tigers could look to Anderson as the Skubal of the future, while Montes could give their lineup a much-needed power boost as soon as 2026.

The Mariners could justify this trade as having just the right risk-reward balance. They only just drafted Anderson at No. 3 overall in July, but he has yet to throw a pitch in the pros. Montes has earned Yordan Alvarez comparisons, yet there's more swing-and-miss in his bat than Alvarez had when he was in the minors.

One can see a situation where the Tigers might want a deal-sweetener such as an Emerson Hancock or a Logan Evans, but the general framework of this trade is sound. And if there's a better trade for the Tigers to make with, say, the New York Mets or the Boston Red Sox, we'd like to see it.