Let the Past Die: The Mariners Should Sign Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa: He’s the best player on the market

Before we get into the personalities and concerns most of you have, let’s talk about the type of player we’re looking at that is available. Carlos Correa turned 28 in September and has been one of the best players in baseball since he stepped onto the field for Houston back in 2015. One of the game’s very best defenders at the shortstop position, Correa is also an underrated slugger. With comparisons to Alex Rodriguez when he first came up, Correa has never matched the power that Seattle ARod showed but is a complete all-around hitter.

Over the course of his seven full seasons (excluding the 2020 Covid season), Correa has consistently been at an all-star level, hitting a slash line of .280/.357/.479. He has averaged over 25 doubles and 21 home runs a season while posting an OPS+ of 129 for his career. For those that don’t follow the numbers as much, OPS+ is one of the most accurate ways to put a value on a player offensively. The average hitter posts a 100 OPS+, so Correa has been 29% better than the average SS.

Many people questioned if Correa leaving the friendly confines of Minute Maid Park, as well as the Astros “culture”, for the Minnesota Twins and their pitcher-friendly ballpark would affect his bat. All Correa did was post a slash line of .291/.366/.467 for a 140 OPS+, as well as matching his career power numbers.

For reference, J.P. Crawford posted exactly an OPS+ of 100 this season. Correa was 40% better offensively than Crawford this season. While he has historically struggled at T-Mobile Park, I think his success in Minnesota is more of an indicator of success than his struggles in Seattle.

Correa has an all-star bat that has received MVP votes in the past. As great as that bat is, it almost pales in comparison to the type of defender Correa is. For three straight seasons, Correa has been a finalist for the Gold Glove Award. He won the award in 2021, as well as the Platinum Glove, awarded to the best overall defensive player in each league. Considering his size, he has incredible range and has ranked 3rd, 5th, and 6th over the last three years for arm strength from shortstops.

When I look at Correa, I see the best overall player on the free-agent market. He doesn’t have Judge’s power or Turner’s speed, but when you consider the hitter overall, as well as his defensive dominance, he’s the real deal.

Carlos Correa fits Seattle’s needs and timeline

We know that Correa is a special talent, but is he a player that sees as a fit? They should. The goal this offseason is clear, try to catch Houston. Obviously, economics play a major factor in this off-season hunt, but Seattle needs more star power on the offensive side.

Signing a player like Carlos Correa, who would have been Seattle’s second-best hitter last season, completely changes the lineup as well. We already know about the Teoscar Hernandez trade, so let’s just assume no more major offensive moves are made other than Teo and Correa. If you slot Teo in at the #5 hole and Correa at the #3, this is what a potential lineup could look like 1-6.

1. 1- Julio CF
2. France 1B
3. Correa SS
4. Raleigh C
5. Teo RF
6. Geno 3B

Obviously, that is very right-handed heavy, but that is a powerful and imposing 1-6. All six are projected to hit over 20 home runs and have an OPS+ of at least 120. I wrote this summer about how the great teams, those that make League Championships and World Series, have a minimum of 4-5 OPS+ 120 hitters. This lineup has the first six hitters all meeting this requirement. Any positive improvement or rebound from guys like Crawford, Winker, Kelenic, and this lineup could be a top 3 lineup in the American League.

On top of Correa being a great player, he’s a clutch performer. Playing for the Astros, Correa was raised in the playoffs. During his career, Correa has made the postseason six times, winning the AL West four times. His teams won three AL Championships and the controversial 2017 title. While these numbers have, and will always be questioned, he has shown up in October.

He put up pedestrian numbers in 2018 and 2019, but his numbers in 2015, 2017, 2020, and 2021 are borderline historic. Overall, Correa in 79 career playoff games, has 16 doubles and 18 home runs to go with a slash line of .272/.344/.505. This is the type of bat that could have helped push a run across in the Mariners heartbreaking 1-0 loss to Houston in Game 3 of the ALDS.

The last area where Correa fits the Mariners is in their timeline of contention. Seattle is one of the younger teams in the league and is hoping to be competitive for championships over the next five seasons, not just one or two. Most players reach free agency after they turn 30, which means you’re starting the dangerous game of paying a player for their past accomplishments rather than their future performance.

With Correa, that is not the case. Because Correa was called up at an early age, he is hitting free agency a second time at just 28 years old, which will be his playing age for almost the entirety of the 2023 season.

As players begin to decline around age 32 or 33, the Mariners will have enjoyed 5-6 years of Correa’s prime. Most 10-year mega contracts hope to get 3-4 good years, which makes Correa so attractive as a target.

Seattle fits what Carlos Correa wants

As I know most of you hate the idea of adding a former Astro to the Mariners, I ask that you take a look at it from Carlos Correa’s perspective. After the 2021 season, one in which Correa was arguably the best player on their team that nearly won a championship, he was shunned by the Astros in free agency. It was shocking to see a franchise that drafted him number one overall, raised him, won with him, protected him from the cheating scandal, and won with him again, would then let him walk without much of a fight.

This turn by Houston absolutely had an effect on Correa’s free agency and played a role in him signing a three-year deal with a one-year out with the Twins, rather than the mega contract he was likely looking for. After a great individual season that saw very little team success in Minnesota, Correa was a guest studio analyst for TBS and had the awkward duty of interviewing new Houston Astros shortstop and future World Series MVP Jeremy Pena right after Pena’s 18th-inning blast eliminated the Mariners in the ALDS.

You can’t tell me that didn’t hurt for Correa. It probably hurt more to watch Houston be vindicated for their decision, as they won their second title* in six years. Not only did they win, but there was a lot of noise about how the team was better off without him.

Correa has to want to prove them wrong, and there’s no better place to prove that than here in Seattle. Would there need to be a smoothing over between past transgressions and the booing he has received in Seattle? Absolutely, but as I mentioned in my 2023 offseason plan, the majority of those previous Mariners are gone, and a few more may be out the door by Christmas.

This is the dawn of a new era in Seattle, with new stars, new leaders, and much higher expectations. If Correa is willing to play in Minnesota, then he’s willing to play anywhere! Seattle is a rising power that needs one more star to truly make Houston feel uncomfortable.

He may have been an enemy of the Mariners, but now he appears to be enemies with the Astros. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

It is time to let the past die Seattle, and bring Carlos Correa to Seattle on a 10-year deal for $330 Million.

There may be no better team-up or story this season than the Mariners and Correa joining forces to take down the most hated team in baseball.