How Will The 2023 MLB Rule Changes Impact The Seattle Mariners?

Will larger bases lead to more stolen bases from the Seattle Mariners?

Two big rules will impact the running game in 2023. First, the distance between first to second, and second to third will decrease by 4.5 inches. Second, pitchers have time restrictions and a limit on disengagements.

These new rules were tested in the minor leagues and boosted stolen base attempts and success rates. Stolen base attempts jumped to 2.83 attempts per game, compared to a previous 2.23 stolen base attempts per game. The success rate of stolen bases also went up by 9%, going from 68% to 77% success rate.

I am sure this trend will be seen in the big leagues as well but will the Mariners be able to take advantage?

Last season, the Mariners stole 83 bases as a team which is in the middle of the pack. The stolen bases from the Mariners came from just 9 players with Julio Rodriguez and Dylan Moore leading the group.

The Texas Rangers led with 128 stolen bases and had 20 players contribute to that total. The Rangers are in a bit of a different situation because of the constant rotation of players in that lineup but the diversification of stolen bases is something we might expect from the Seattle side next year.

When looking at stolen bases under Scott Servais, 2016-2022, the Seattle Mariners are actually 12th among MLB teams with 536 steals. So, being aggressive on the basepaths isn’t something that is necessarily out of the ordinary for the Mariners.

Obviously, it is not all on Scott Servais and the coaching staff on how many steals the team can get but it is in his history. In fact, the Mariners finished 5th in stolen bases in 2019 with 115. And then in 2020, the M’s were 3rd in stolen bases with 50, just 5 behind the Padres who led the league.

Now, let’s get into sprint speeds from last season courtesy of Baseball Savant. The Seattle native Corbin Carroll led all players with an average 30.7 ft/sec sprint speed. Julio Rodriguez however isn’t too far behind at 29.8ft/sec. Julio finished with 25 stolen bases in the regular season and that number might exceed 30 next season.

Sam Haggerty had an average sprint speed of 28.9 ft/sec and is another speedster that could greatly benefit from the rule changes. He stole 13 bases last season which means he stole a base every 6.5 games. If he gets more time, he could be a significant impact on the run game. I wonder if Servais will get him more time because of the advantage given to runners on base.

I also expect Dylan Moore and Jarred Kelenic to cause chaos and get into the scoring position. Moore is undoubtedly one of the better base stealers on the team and Kelenic could make large strides next season as he gains another year of experience under his belt.

There might also be a few stolen bases from people we didn’t see a whole lot from last year. J.P. Crawford only logged 3 bases but I expect double digits from him in 2023. Taylor Trammell is another candidate for 10+ steals if he gets time on the field.

Let’s also not leave out Cal Raleigh who did log one steal in 2022. His average sprint speed was 26.8 ft/sec which is the same average as J.P. Crawford in 2022, surprisingly. Maybe we get 5 bases from Cal?

I could go on and on about who could contribute to the stolen base totals for the M’s. Overall, this will be something that will be seen across the entire league I’d imagine, much like the other things I have addressed in this article.

It will be interesting to see how the Mariners take advantage of these rules and how some of these rules will negatively impact the team. There is a great opportunity for the Mariners to win the offensive and defensive impacts of the ban on shifts. They also have a great opportunity to improve their run game with the speed that they already have.

I am however slightly worried about how teams will test Cal Raleigh and the pitching staff with runners on base. There will need to be a lot of work done by the coaches to work with pitchers on controlling the run game in a much different situation than in the past.