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Mariners Trade Proposal: Packages to offer for Nationals Juan Soto
I’m gonna get this out of the way right now. At least read this before you yell at me. These are just proposals, I don’t have insider information, but I have done my research and talked with people to try and come up with a fair value. I know it’s important to say, because anytime you talk about trading for Juan Soto, people are going to get up in arms.
However, the Mariners are one of the teams that have enough prospect capital, available salary, and the means and methods to make it happen. They could do it during the season, or after, and make either scenario work. For those that are worried about giving up too much, it is Juan Soto. He’s a monster… and he’s only 23.
The Mariners should go for it and trade for Juan Soto
He also is under team control through 2024. Already making $17.1 million this year, he is likely going to break the arbitration records over the next two years. However, it’s still going to be a massive underpay for arguably the best player in baseball.
For those looking at Soto’s stats and saying “oh, it’s good, but not THAT good” then you need to take a look at one very, very, very important stat.
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play)
Coming into this season, Juan Soto had a BABIP of .330 and a batting average of .301 through 2003 plate appearances. That goes along with an OBP of .432 and a slugging % of .550. That leads me to believe that he has been quite unlucky this year, as the 2000 PA are far from a small sample size, and are likely closer to the reality for what he is going to do, especially with how good of an eye he has as well as how hard he hits the ball.
Oh, and I’ll mention it again. He’s only 23. He’s likely four years from his prime (ages 27-29 are normally listed as a player’s prime years). This year, his BABIP is only .244, 86 points below his career average. Don’t be surprised to see him dominate in the second half to get that closer to the norm for his career.
Oh, and he’s still a 3.4 WAR, even with the bad luck. Imagine having bad luck all season, and still finishing with around 6.5 WAR. He’s still T-24th this season in WAR. So yeah, he’s that good, and yeah, he is worth it.
Anyway, you likely know that Juan Soto is special. Calling him the modern-day Ted Williams doesn’t get you banned from ever talking about baseball again. So, what would it take to actually get him?
Well, I think there are a few different avenues of approach to take for this. There are going to be three things that I propose today. All minor leaguers, a mix of minor and major leaguers, and taking back some salary in the final deal. Reportedly, those final two options are what the Nationals are looking at doing, willing to take back less if the other team takes on some salary when they trade for Juan Soto.
Here we go. Here is what it would take for the Mariners to trade for Nationals Uber-star, Juan Soto.
Juan Soto Trade #1: The Mariners sell the farm
Our coding only allows four players underneath a team, so I’ve got the Nationals on here in two spots to get all the players in. Jarred Kelenic, Noelvi Marte, Emerson Hancock, Levi Stoudt, Gabriel Gonzalez, and Milkar Perez would all go out in order to get Juan Soto.
Would it be enough? I think it’s in that range. The Mariners top prospect in Marte, two of their top pitching prospects in Hancock and Stoudt, a young rising star in Gabriel Gonzalez, and Milkar Perez. Oh, and we also send Kelenic, who was a top-5 prospect in baseball not that long ago. He’s still just 23 as well.
If Kelenic was never called up, he would still be a top-10 prospect. You add him, a top 20 in Marte, Hancock who looks healthy, Stoudt and his nasty changeup, the young Gonzalez, and Perez at third to take over where Kieboom has fizzled, and you have a pretty good offer.
Better yet (for the Mariners) it doesn’t take any of their current major leaguers. I have seen people list Gilbert and Kirby in trades, but I just don’t really think the Mariners want that to happen… not unless they have a secondary trade in the wings to bring in another frontline starter.
If you count Kelenic as a prospect, this makes it six of the Mariners top 12 prospects heading over in the deal, and I think it’s one that has a decent chance of being able to happen. However, it has been reported that the Nationals are looking for some MLB-ready talent that could join the big leagues right away. If that’s the case, then I think we could see something like this happen instead.
Juan Soto Trade #2: Mariners send over a Rebuild and Restock for Nationals
Kyle Lewis and Matt Brash could both go to the Nationals as MLB-ready players. Change it to Trammell if you want, but I think it would be one of those two. Lewis is set to come back for the Mariners after the all-star break, and the Nationals could be willing to take him on and give him the remainder of the season to see what they can get from him. It’s a pretty wide range for him from floor to ceiling, but if he hits, it is a wonderful acquisition for them.
Matt Brash would likely be converted back to a starter, which would instantly increase his value. With the Nationals not expecting to compete anytime soon, they could let Brash get the experience at starter, develop in the bigs, and have the opportunity to form a nice punch alongside Josiah Gray, who they received in the Scherzer/Turner trade last year.
Marte stays on as the prospect centerpiece and is joined by three different prospects as compared to the original offer. Alberto Rodriguez is the other, other young Rodriguez outfielder for the Mariners, and only 20 years old.
He would be joined by an LHP and RHP, each with great upside. Macko has some nasty stuff and great build and delivery for a lefty. He’s also a strikeout machine who is still learning the game and has sat down 60 hitters in 39.1 IP, for a 14.1 K rate per 9. Dollard has been making waves at AA this year, with a 1.64 ERA and 0.947 WHIP, all at age 23. He keeps the ball in the yard (4 HR in 87.2 IP), and has good control as well with a 2.2 BB/9 rate.
If MLB talent is what they are looking for in DC, then Lewis/Trammell and Brash could be an offer that tickles the Nats interest. However, there is one other scenario that remains. What if the Nationals were looking to offload some salary in a Juan Soto trade?
Juan Soto Trade #3: Mariners take back Patrick Corbin in deal
The one consistent through all of these is that Noelvi Marte is the headliner of the deal. As the Mariners best prospect (depending on what you think of Edwin Arroyo), he has to be in the deal no matter what. He’s a top 25 prospect in baseball and would be the cornerstone of the deal.
The big change here, as you obviously noticed, is adding in Patrick Corbin. The Nationals are reportedly looking to get rid of him in the Soto deal, and are willing to take a lesser return in order to do so. If they can get rid of him, it would save them the rest of his $23 million salary this year, $24 million next year, and $35 million in 2024. Add that along to what Soto makes, and the Nationals are looking at saving the following in trading Soto and Corbin…
2022 – Remainder of combined salaries ~$40 million
2023 – Somewhere around $45 million
2024 – Somewhere around $65 million
Mookie Betts (for all I could find) set the Arb record at $27 million. Soto is going to break that. Say he gets $30, alongside Corbin’s $35, that would be a healthy chunk of change. I think it’s going to cut down what the Mariners would have to send back to the Nationals, but because it’s Soto, it’s not like they would be able to get him for peanuts.
It’s not just the salary with Corbin, it’s the fact that, well, to put it bluntly, he’s been awful. Since the start of 2021, he has made 50 starts, registering a reported league-worst ERA of 5.84 and an awful WHIP of 1.552.
However… he does eat innings and has been healthy in his career, so maybe a change of scenery could do him good. If anything, it’s worth it to get Juan Soto.
Julio Rodriguez was incredibly impressive in 2022 Home Run Derby. dark. Next
Well, which of these do you prefer? Do you think one of them, in particular, gives the Mariners a better chance to get the deal done? Personally, I want the Mariners to go for it, and so what it takes to trade for (and then extend) Juan Soto. Pairing him and Julio Rodriguez would make the Mariners one of the most exciting teams in all of baseball to watch for the foreseeable future. GO MARINERS!