The Key to the Mariners Cracking the Playoff Code

The Seattle Mariners are back in the hunt. On June 19th, after a massively disappointing eleven-game homestand where the M’s went a measly 3-8, they found themselves at 29-39, eight games back of the final wildcard spot. Fast forward to the third of July, and the Mariners are now 39-42, and are 5 games back of that final playoff spot that Mariner fans are so desperate for. Things don’t necessarily look great, but it’s a lot better than it was two weeks ago, and the Mariners look like a better team.

The pitching by the starters and the bullpen during this run has been historic. The return of ace-level pitching from Robbie Ray seems to have given the whole pitching staff a jolt, in which each pitcher is trying to one up the next. While this run from the staff has been impressive, it has been the reawakening of the Mariners offense that has catapulted this team back into contention. This offense has had to battle through so much adversity, and yet they find themselves with the opportunity to have one of the best offenses in Seattle history, and just maybe a chance at October baseball.

When assessing this team and their chances of making the playoffs, I took a deep dive into the history of the Mariners offense, and how it compares to recent teams that went deep into the postseason. What I found (stumbled upon) was a pretty solid foundation for teams that are World Series contenders, or teams that played in past League Championship Series. What I also found out, which was pretty shocking in a sad way, is a pretty strong clue as to why Seattle hasn’t made the postseason since 2001.

The very important stat that we are going to talk about today for the Mariners is WRC+.

Now, a quick inside breakdown of what exactly WRC+ is to those that aren’t familiar, according to MLB.com

“wRC+ takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for important external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average and 150 would be 50 percent above league average. For example, a player who plays his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field will have a lower wRC+ than a player who posts identical stats at pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum.”

So when looking for elite, franchise hitters that can get you not only into the postseason but deep into playoff baseball, I believe you need hitters with a WRC+ of nearly 120 or higher. Again, this means I’m looking for at least four guys that are at least 20% above league average.

When you have four “cornerstone” type hitters in your lineup consistently, your offense has enough depth mixed with star power to carry the rest of the lineup, regardless of how good or bad the other five hitters are. If you have at least four cornerstone hitters, then you are an almost guaranteed playoff team capable of competing for a championship.

Don’t believe me? Let’s take a look at the past eight LCS. Of the 32 teams to survive and make it to the penultimate round, 26 had an offense boasting at least four elite hitters. When looking at the World Series participants, the past twelve team teams competing met this criterion as well. The teams that didn’t meet that criterion, but still found success, such as the 2019 St. Louis Cardinals or 2017 Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees.

These teams lacked the necessary elite bats, but their entire lineups had WRC+ of 100 and above. Essentially they had no holes in their lineups, even if they weren’t littered with stars. The Houston Astros, the standard of success in baseball (with some help), have put together lineups with a minimum of six hitters with a WRC+ of 120 in all three of their World Series teams.

The evidence is clear that if you want to make some noise, you need some real hitters. So how do the Seattle Mariners stack up so far this season?

Entering today’s game against Oakland, the M’s have three players who have played 50 or more games and have a WRC+ of 120 or higher. France leads the team with an astounding 157, with Julio and Suarez following with 135 and 126. JP Crawford has seen his cold streak drop his WRC+ below 120, while Cal Raleigh and Jesse Winker are rapidly raising their WRC+ and are inching closer to that important number.

So how does this stack up to previous Mariners teams? Remember when I said I found some shocking and sad information? Well, here you go. The Seattle Mariners have not had a lineup featuring four hitters with a WRC+ of 120 since…2001! That’s right, one of the greatest teams of all time, with five hitters in the 120 range, plus Mark McLemore with a 118, remains the last Mariners ballclub to meet the necessary criteria of a true contender. With that being the last time Seattle made the postseason, I think that just hammers the point home even more. Seattle needs bigger guns.

It’s still too early to tell what the future holds for Cal, JP, and Winker, but Seattle has two elite bats heading into the future with France and Julio. The most important thing for the Mariners future success, whether in 2022 or beyond, is to develop or find at least two more at-bats.

That may come from the inside with potential players like Cal, Kelenic, or Marte. It may come from big trades, or from free agency. In free agency, there are numerous franchise bats available, from Judge to Bogarts and Correa to Brantley, all with WRC+ of 130 or higher.

The Mariners are getting closer, can Jerry get Seattle the offense it needs to party like it’s 2001? Time will tell, but we know what it will take.