Mariners: Who won the Robinson Cano/Jarred Kelenic Trade?

A few years ago, the Mariners and Mets swung a mega-trade. The Mariners were offloading Robinson Cano, who had one of the biggest contracts in baseball as well as the biggest in team history. They added in the best closer from that season in Edwin Diaz. In return, they received Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Gerson Bautista, Justin Dunn, and Jarred Kelenic.

It was a massive deal and caught nearly everyone off guard. The Mariners got rid of a ton of money and a lights-out closer who likely had turned in what would be the best season of his career. Bruce and Swarzak offset a bit of that, as the Mariners took them on in the deal.

Justin Dunn was the third-ranked prospect in the Mets system to start 2018, and up to the 89th prospect in baseball at the time of the trade. Kelenic was ranked even higher, debuting as the 62nd prospect in all of baseball after being selected 6th in that summer’s draft by the Mets.

With Robinson Cano receiving a combination of suspensions and being DFA’d, Dunn no longer with the Mariners, and Kelenic having struggled in his time in the majors and was sent back down to AAA, I wanted to take a look at the whole picture and try and answer a question that I have seen all over the internet in the last week or two.

Who won the trade between the Seattle Mariners and the New York Mets? There are some factors that need to be looked at to figure out who came out ahead in the deal. There’s a lot of money, service time, WAR, and moving parts. Before we get to each side’s case for who won the deal, let’s first look at where everyone is now.

Mariners/Mets Trade: Case for the New York Mets

It’s clear that Edwin Diaz has been the best player involved in this deal so far. Through three+ seasons with the Mets, he has an ERA+ of 108, a 3.77 ERA and a 3.20 FIP, he has an incredible K/9 rate of 14.9, is 73 for 91 in save opportunities, and has a 2.4 WAR. WAR for closers is a funky stat, so I try not to pay too much attention to it for them.

Diaz struggled a bit when he got to the Mets, but has been great since then. The differential in his ERA and FIP is also worth noting, as 0.57 is quite the difference. He’s given the Mets someone they can reasonably trust at the end of games, which is always nice to have.

You can try comparing team saves to see if it’s given the Mets an advantage, but it’s a hard stat to track. A blown save can happen whenever your team has the lead, not just in the 9th. Over that time frame, the Mets have a Blown Save percentage of 39.645% (102/169), while the Mariners number sits at 40.4365 (106/181). It’s pretty close… but doesn’t really mean anything here.

But… there’s Robinson Cano to drag it down. The Mets will end up paying him about $70.2 million for his time there (they have to pay the remainder of his deal even after letting him go) and received just 1.2 WAR from Cano. $58.51 million per WAR… that’s a pretty hefty price.

Yeah, you got Diaz in the deal, but you had to take on what ended up being a bad player on an awful deal. As to what they gave up…

Mariners/Mets Trade: Case for the Seattle Mariners

This was a deal that shocked everyone. The Mariners sent out Diaz who had just led the league in saves with 57, alongside their biggest contract in team history. In return, they got a serviceable OF who was nearing the end, a young flamethrower, and a decent reliever. They also got two top-100 prospects. It seemed like a massive win at the time, and there were very few people out there who thought the Mets got the best return in the deal.

It’s 3.5 years later, and some are making the case that things have changed. The last slide looks at things from the Mets perspective, but what about the Mariners?

The Mariners sort of use a closer by committee, but not in the sense you may think of. They pitch based on matchups. It’s why three guys had ten+ saves last year. Would they solely use Diaz in the 9th if they had him? Possibly. It’s not a guarantee though.

The Mariners paid just over $20 million of Bruce’s salary and got 0.3 WAR out of him in 40+ games, before trading him to the Phillies for Jake Scheiner. Scheiner is a corner guy (1B, 3B, LF) with a little bit of pop and a good eye, but is already 26 and still in AA.

With Swarzak, he threw about 13 innings while making $4.78 million, and was traded to the Braves for Jesse Biddle and Arodys Vizcaino. Biddle was awful, and Vizcaino never threw for the Mariners.

Gerson Bautista was a super young flamethrower with arm issues. After a few appearances with the Mariners, he was let go and hasn’t been in the bigs since.

Justin Dunn provided a bit of spark for the Mariners, and there were legit conversations about whether or not he was going to be a part of the Mariners rotation for the years to come. He had/has good stuff, but a combination of nagging shoulder injuries and control issues have plagued him. He ended up being a part of the package to the Reds for Winker and Suarez, helping net the Mariners two starting hitters for their lineup.

Dunn did have a 3.94 ERA with the Mariners, but a 5.61 FIP with 6.0 BB/9. He did provide some WAR for the Mariners, actually netting more than Cano, tallying a 1.6 WAR in 25 starts and just over 100 innings.

The Mariners got rid of money, used Dunn to acquire more pieces, and have a super young player with an incredible ceiling, but a very low floor. So… who won?

Mariners/Mets Trade: The Verdict

Here’s what it ended up being, when you take everything into account. This includes all the money paid as well as money that still needs to be paid, salaries of guys who were traded, WAR to this point, and all the players involved in total.

METS

Incoming: Edwin Diaz

Outgoing: Jay Bruce, Robinson Cano (in and out), Gerson Bautista, Anthony Swarzak, Justin Dunn, Jarred Kelenic

WAR: 3.6 WAR

Cash: $89,904,442

MARINERS

Incoming: Jarred Kelenic, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez

Outgoing: Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, Anthony Swarzak (in and out), Jay Bruce (in and out), Gerson Bautista (in and out), Justin Dunn (in and out), Brandon Williamson, Jake Fraley

WAR: -0.3 WAR

Cash: $58,938,622

Is 3.9 WAR worth $30.97 million? Well, that’s about the going rate, as a Win is estimated at around $7.5-8.0 million. There is more to it than that. The Mariners have Kelenic through 2027 and Suarez signed through 2025 at 3yr-$37.6 million, with Winker eligible for Arb 3 in 2023. The Mets are going to have to re-sign Diaz if they want to keep him, and they are going to have to pay heavily to do so.

Here’s what I see. The Mets have a great closer, and it cost them a lot of money. It’s going to cost them even more to keep him. Raisel Iglesias for 4-58, and I would expect Diaz will want that, if not more.

The Mariners got some good pieces in Suarez and Winker by moving Dunn, even if it cost them Brandon Williamson. They also received the Mets most recent first-rounder at the time of the trade, and even 3.5 years later, he’s still only 22-years-old. The Mariners have 6 years left of control on Kelenic. Six!

Even if you call the money exchange a wash, the Mariners have a bit of control left on Winker, Suarez under contract for a few years, and Kelenic through 2027. The Mets have Diaz through this year. That’s it.

Even if Kelenic never does anything (I doubt it, I’m still 100% in his corner), the Mariners win this trade running away. The Mets were dumb to trade for Cano while sending out a highly touted prospect with a massive ceiling. It’s a great closer for a massive prospect, a powerful third baseman, and a LF who has a history of destroying RHP.

The Mariners won the trade with the Mets, and it’s not even close.