The Seattle Mariners can be great, but need to go all in for 2022
The future of Seattle Mariners baseball is bright…very bright…like put the shades on bright. Coming off an unexpected 90-win campaign in 2021, and the top farm system in baseball, the Mariners made two impressive moves in the offseason before the lockout put everything on hold.
First, the Mariners traded for All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier from the San Diego Padres. Second, they went out and signed the reigning American League Cy Young award winner SP Robbie Ray to a 5-year contract worth $115 million.
These are great starts, and I don’t believe they will be anything close to all the moves they will make before the eventual opening day. We’ve heard rumblings of Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, and possible trades for Matt Chapman, and Mike Moustakas.
These are all fine additions and would make the Mariners better, but these are half measures. Moves to keep the arrow pointing up and allow Seattle to take one of the new wild card spots that will likely be added to the league after the lockout. Who knows, maybe they get lucky and even steal the division from Houston. But half measures are half measures…they only get you halfway home.
The Mariners need to go all-in for 2022. The Full Measure.
The goal of the Seattle Mariners shouldn’t be to break the 20 plus year drought of no postseason play. The goal should be to break a 45 year World Series drought. The Mariners can be great, but they need to go all in, and there’s one mega-deal with Cleveland that I believe would get them to the promised land…trading for 3B Jose Ramirez AND SP Shane Bieber.
Back in October, we looked at what it would take to acquire the star third baseman and where that would leave our prospect depth and future talent. The idea of trading for a player at the level of a Shane Bieber, on his own, would also leave the M’s a bit lighter in prospect depth. Trading for both? That would destroy our farm! Sure it’s possible, but this isn’t any ordinary farm system.
According to Baseball America, the Seattle Mariners have the top-ranked farm system in all of baseball, with superstar position players, and elite pitching. A trade for an MVP caliber player and a recent Cy Young winning ace will make the farm system’s prestigious ranking short-lived, but I believe that the use of the farm system is to get the Mariner closer to a World Series, not to just have talented, cheap prospects.
The Mariners already have young, talented pieces. They need stars, and the ability for Seattle to get cheap proven stars, while giving up potential, shouldn’t be a question.
The Cleveland Guardians roster is fading, teams in their division like the White Sox and Tigers are ascending, and they don’t operate like a big market team. There is almost zero chance they will be able to financially retain either Ramirez after 2023, or Bieber after 2024, let alone both.
The Guardians are getting a fresh start with their new name, and I expect them to be looking at an all-around rebuild as well. Here’s where the Mariners can give them the ultimate haul, while Seattle looks to make the jump.
The Guardians could use both hitting and pitching talent, some immediate to near immediate help, as well as some lower minors prospects. They will want the usual Julio, Kelenic, Kirby packages that the M’s will not be interested in. Seattle views those three as the core to their title run. Instead, look for Seattle to overwhelm the Guardians with great talent and depth, rather than a single diamond.
That may not be what Cleveland and their fans want to hear, but I believe there is an offer that will work for both sides.
For Cleveland, we are checking off their desired boxes. Do they need immediate help? Kyle Lewis has star potential, as we saw in 2020, and with a fresh start and a little more injury luck, he can be a star. Dylan Moore provides plenty of potential to play all over the field, while also providing some potential with the bat. Evan White has the best 1B glove in the majors and just needs the bat to come around. Cleveland can be a great home for him to develop that bat.
As for future talent, Brandon Williamson, Zach Deloach, and Kaden Polcovich all provide the potential for the Guardians and will all likely get their shot before the end of 2023.
The main prizes, however, are SS Noelvi Marte and RHP Emerson Hancock. Marte, a top 3 prospect in the Mariners farm, is the perfect future replacement for Ramirez at 3B, a position he’ll likely slide into as he gets older. Likely ready by 2023, Marte is on most prospect top 20-30 lists and has all-star potential.
Emerson Hancock, a top 5 prospect in the Mariners farm, will be pitching in the majors by September. He has a #2 starter potential. At the end of the day, Cleveland is getting 8 young talented players, a humongous haul that is balanced to allow Cleveland to contend by 2024.
As for Seattle, they’ve gutted the depth of their farm system trading away 6 of their top 25 prospects, but have kept 3 of the top 4 prospects in their system according to my rankings. Personally, I value catcher Harry Ford above all these players in the deal, minus Marte. Seattle keeps their superstar potential players in Julio, Kelenic, Kirby, and Ford. This deal will sting, but what they are acquiring is the biggest all-in move in Seattle Mariners history.
From an offensive standpoint, Jose Ramirez is the best 3rd baseman in the American League. He has all the tools, plus a great glove, speed and flexibility to play 2nd base. Seattle can slot him into the #2 or #3 hole and watch the offense grow under his leadership for the next two years. With a bargain of a contract at only 12 million this year and 14 million next year, Seattle doesn’t have to stop with just Ramirez offensively.
With the money being saved from a deal like this, there is no excuse for the Mariners to not continue to go all in, signing either Kris Bryant or Trevor Story, as well as Japanese star OF Seiya Suzuki. Take a look at the projected lineup.
1. J.P Crawford – SS
2. Ty France – 1B
3. Jose Ramirez – 3B/2B
4. Bryant/Story – 3B/2B
5. Mitch Haniger – DH
6. Jared Kelenic – OF
7. Seiya Suzuki – OF
8. Julio Rodriguez – OF
9. Cal Raliegh – C
That is a lineup that is young, athletic, and powerful. The bench may be one of the best in baseball, now with Adam Frazier and Abraham Toro providing incredible flexibility. This is an offense that can get to October… and win in October.
While the trade for Ramirez and subsequent additions offensively are fantastic, it’s the pitching that I think puts this team over the top. With the deal done, the Mariners would have arguably the two most dominant pitchers in the American League and maybe all of baseball. A 1-2 punch of Robbie Ray and Shane Bieber will suffocate opposing teams’ offenses.
The 2019 Houston Astros had a similar staff with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. The Astros knew throughout their whole season they were winning, at worst, 2 of every 5 games, all the way through as they steamrolled to 107 wins and Game 7 of the World Series. This dominance can be replicated by Ray and Bieber. They can put a stranglehold on any playoff series and would be a nightmare for opposing hitters.
They also can help the rotation’s depth by pushing players like Marco Gonzalez and Chris Flexen to be some of the best #3 level pitchers in the game, not to mention Logan Gilbert will continue to develop into a stud.
1. Robbie Ray
2. Shane Bieber
3. Marco Gonzalez
4. Chris Flexen
5. Logan Gilbert
I believe this rotation is the best in baseball, allowing the dominant bullpen to have less stressful innings, as they march to the postseason. The bullpen is already strong, and limiting its usage would make it even better.
This is what a team looks like that believes it is time and is willing to go all-in, full measure. This is a team that is not only the favorite in the AL West but the favorite in the American League for multiple seasons.
No more half-measures Seattle Mariners, go all in.