Ranking the 5 best contracts in Seattle Mariners Recent History

Whenever you think about the best of something a team has done, you are inevitably drawn to the worst as well, or vice versa. So, when I wrote about the worst contracts that the Mariners have ever handed out, I knew that I was going to want to write about the best ones as well.

I’m trying to keep it semi-recent, as going too far back into the past can get a bit confusing for value. Yeah, some guy might’ve signed on a $500,000 deal, but when people aren’t making a lot of money, it just makes it a good value contract instead of a steal at the league minimum.

Let’s first look at some honorable mentions for the greatest contracts in Mariners history

Sorry, but the guys from the ’90s are just too long ago. We are gonna keep it to this millennia. There is also one other group that gets kicked out. Anyone playing under team control. Yeah, Haniger was a big-time value last year. He was only being paid $3.01 million and was worth 3.1 WAR. Doesn’t count. Sorry.

If you are curious about any free-agent deals that the Mariners have ever signed, check out Cot’s contracts. You can look at anything since 1991. It’s an amazing source but only shows FA deals. Not every single deal. Still amazing!

I’m also using $/WAR based on how much a win costs. It changes year by year, but I personally use what it cost when the deal was signed, as opposed to finding the average over the life of the deal. The only time I do that is when there are drastic changes, as you will see later on.

I could’ve done this 100% analytical. Find the cost per WAR per year, assign that to each deal based on the year it was signed, and then calculate a player’s surplus value they provided to the team, and average it out over the length of the contract. It definitely played a part in this, but the value a player can bring to a team isn’t just in cost, it can be in culture, attitude, and likeability. For the golfers out there, it’s why you’d take nearly anyone over Sergio Garcia or Patrick Reed.

There are some tough cuts right off the bat. Sorry soft-tossing lefty fans, but Moyer doesn’t make it. He signed back in 99 through 2002, but was awesome. He had a 15.4 WAR for just over $21 million. I said no 90s deals though, and I’m sticking to it. He was good from 03-05, but the 7.5 WAR just doesn’t cut it for best recent deals in Mariners history.

Recent retiree Kyle Seager is a darn good choice, and he actually almost makes the list as well. He signed a 7-100 that started in the 2015 season. If you give it between $7-8 million per WAR, which was the accepted rate back when he signed it, he actually signed for ~$72 million cheaper than he was worth (23 WAR * 7.5 = $172.5 – $100 = $72.5 surplus for the team). It was a great deal, and if you don’t think so… you’re wrong. If not for a rough finish, he would’ve easily made the list.

Then, there are the one-year guys. Franklin Gutierrez in 2015 ($507,500 for a 2.6 WAR) and Jason Vargas in 2012 ($4.85 million for a 3.5 WAR). It was tough keeping Vargas off the list, but he was traded after that season and made a lot more every season after.

Next up is Chris Flexen. He could definitely make the list if it was re-done in a year or two, depending on how he does for the next two years. His contract is funky because it’s pre-arb, but I’m giving the Mariners credit for signing a guy who was in Korea playing baseball. He had a 3.5 WAR in 2021 for only a couple million. If he can put up two more seasons in the same mold, that will be a 10.5 WAR for about $13 million. That’s a massive win for the team.

The last spot was really tough to figure out. Honestly, it ended up coming down to personal preference. I could’ve made it a top 8… but decided to just make some tough cuts instead. It could’ve been Raul Ibanez, as he was so much fun to have on the team. Plus, all the RAAAUUUUUUUUULLLL chants were amazing. 3-$13.25 and a 10.4 WAR was a great job by the team.

I really wanted to put Adrian Beltre in, but couldn’t bring myself to do it. He was a great player, but wins didn’t cost as much back in 05. A 21.2 WAR is awesome, and the consistency he provided (3.2, 5.4, 3.8, 5.6, 3.3) made it fun. The fact that he was a 9.6 the year before Seattle, and averaged 6.2 the next seven years hurts though. His surplus isn’t as high because wins didn’t cost as much in 05, and he barely misses the list.

The last guy to miss was Hiashi Iwakuma. He was so close to making it, and had one of the best seasons by a Mariners pitcher… ever. It was actually the 4th best all-time. That was his first full season as a starter, and he went 7.0, 2.4, 2.6 WAR while making $21 million. A great run, but he barely gets edged out by the guy who comes in at #5. It’s my favorite first baseman of all-time for the Mariners (until Ty France supplants him)…

#5: John Olerud: 2000-2002: 3yrs/$20 million, 14.0 WAR, $30.26m Surplus, $10.09m surplus per season

You could get into a tremendous deep dive on the “what-if” surrounding Olerud. For those who don’t know, Olerud may have been a better pitcher than a hitter. As a true sophomore at Washington State University, Olerud went 15-0 on the mound with a 2.49 ERA and 113 strikeouts. Everything that happened in college is a story for another day.

Olerud had opened up his career with the Blue Jays and instantly showed his hitting talent, with a slash line of .293/.395/.471. That was highlighted by a 3rd-place MVP finish in 1993 when he hit .363/.473/.599, with 186 OPS+, 200 hits, and 54 2Bs. He had a much better season than the two who finished ahead of him, but he still should’ve lost the MVP that year to Griffey (who had an 8.8 WAR!)

Olerud would then go to the Mets, where he would hit .315/.425/.501 over a three-year stretch, highlighted by a .354/.447/.551 slash line in 1998. So, when the Mariners signed Olerud to a 3yr/$20m deal to start the 2000 season, they were getting a career .301 hitter who could drive it into the gaps and was good for 20 HRs a season.

They got that from him, as Olerud would compile a .296/.399/.467 stat line over his first three years in Seattle, hitting 57 homers. For those worried he wasn’t going to drive in runs as he did with the Mets, those fears were quickly extinguished. He would have at least 84 R and 95 RBI each season, averaging 19 HR, 87 R, and 100 RBI for the Mariners, to go along with 39 2B per season.

OH! We can’t forget the cycle. On June 16th, 2001, Olerud became the third Mariners player to hit for the cycle. It was actually the second time in his career that he had done it, previously accomplishing the achievement with the Mets on September 11th, 1997.

It was an incredible run for the fan favorite, and good enough to get him into the top five of best contracts in Mariners history.

#4: Nelson Cruz: 2015-2018: 4yrs/$57 million, 17.1 WAR, $74.67m Surplus, $18.67m surplus per season

It seems crazy, right? That Cruz may have been worth $32 million a season? Well, higher WAR players are actually underpaid, as you can see by something the FiveThirtyEight published that same offseason when Bryce Harper had a staggering surplus value of $72.9 million… in just that season.

Everyone around the league knew that Cruz had power, and the potential for a good average as well. He had a 45 HR season in 2012 with the Rangers, and a .318 BA in 2010 with them as well. He just hadn’t combined them at any point. There were also some worries after Cruz had been suspended in 2013, although the legitimacy of the Biogenesis case is one that’s still questioned.

With the assorted concerns (albeit mild ones) around Cruz, the Mariners were able to ink the then 33-year-old to a 4yr/$57m deal. He had just finished 7th in the MVP voting the year before and was coming off a one-year deal with the Orioles where he went .271/.333/.525 with 40 HR and 108 RBI.

The Mariners would end up getting three of the four best seasons in Cruz’s career during his first three years of the contract. A slash line of .292/.368/.557, where he would average 42 HR, 106 RBI, 92 R, and 26 2B per season. His worst HR season over that stretch was 2017 with 39, but he led the league in RBI with 119, which isn’t too shabby of a trade-off.

The Mariners decided not to re-sign him, and Cruz would go onto the Twins where he would continue to rake. Maybe Cruz would’ve had a second entrance on best contracts, as he easily would’ve been worth the 2yr/$26m the Twins paid him. For now, he takes the #4 spot on best contracts for the Mariners.

#3: Bret Boone: 2001-2005: 5yrs/$36.25 million, 18.3 WAR, $31.83m Surplus, $6.37m surplus per season

Yeah, I know that’s a lot lower than the other two guys on the list so far for Surplus Value. Shoot, it’s lower than some of the honorable mention guys in the opener. However, I wanted to put Boone here to highlight the original deal that he signed with the Mariners in 2001, which was actually just a one-year deal for $3.25 million.

Boone had a WAR of 8.8 that season. That would be a Surplus on its own of $29.49m. He was great in 02 and 03, the first two years of his new deal, with a 10.1 WAR while making $16 million. The last two years were bad… but it’s my article, so I’m just gonna mention them, and then go back to focusing on the magical 2001 season by Boone.

2001 would be Boone’s age-32 season. Up until then, he had two good seasons but had never posted a WAR better than 1.9. He would sign that one-year deal, and it ended up being one of the most amazing deals the Mariners had ever signed.

Boone would put together the 6th strongest season, by WAR, in the history of the Mariners. It wasn’t just the offense, either. It would be the highest dWAR season of his career, as he would earn a 1.7 there, far and away his best season.

The offense is what we think of though. .331/.372/.578 (!), 37 2B, 37 HR, 141 RBI, 118 R, 153 OPS+. Every single one of those was a career-high for Boone, and his 141 RBI was the best in the American League. It helps to have guys like Ichiro, Edgar, and Olerud on the team. Boone put together one of the best offensive seasons Mariners fans have ever seen, and it gets him to #3 on the best contracts of all-time for the M’s.

#1: Ichiro Suzuki: 2001-2007: 7yrs/$71.125 million, 41.1 WAR, $78.86m Surplus, $11.27 surplus per season

I combined the first two contracts Ichiro signed, as well as added in the negotiation fee. I did it on the bad contracts for Kikuchi, so I’m doing it here as well. The player may not make the money, but the team pays it in order to get them, so I’m including it for consistency’s sake.

There’s something else important here. Cost per win really started to increase during Ichiro’s second contract. If you want to go by the actual value per year, his surplus goes all the way up to $97.91m, which is $13.99m per season.

It goes to show you how it changes over the years, especially as more money comes into baseball. From 06 to 07, the $/WAR jumped from $4.545m to $6.284m. With the higher $/War, it’s why Ichiro’s contract was still a minor win for the Mariners from 2008-2012 when he was traded to the Yankees. Despite having a 15.9 WAR in 4.5 seasons with the team, he still was worth about $6 million more than they paid him.

Throughout Ichiro’s negotiating history with the team, he took less each time than you would think he was worth. Part of that was getting extra incentives (housing, car, travel) as well as deferred payments with interest attached. It’s why they are actually paying him till at least 2032.

Ichiro may not have been the highest surplus per season while he was with the team, but a big part of that is the ERA that he played in. Yes, the Mariners would have had to pay him more if he came around a decade later, but the value per win increased by a ton, and I think the surplus he brought to the table would’ve been insanely high.

It’s why I listed him as the best contract in Mariners history. Not to mention the culture, attention, and leadership that he brought to the team, as well as the occasional comedy gold. I don’t like putting links to paywalls, so if you don’t have access to the Atheltic, take the time to search out some of his gems, like this one. It’s always been my favorite…

“One morning in spring training, 2017, he was in the coaches’ room looking at his cell phone text messages. Ichiro told the coaches about one message he had just received from a number he didn’t recognize. The guy said he’d gotten Ichiro’s number from Alex Rodriguez, and that he wanted to come meet him and study his stretching system. “What’s the guy’s name?” asked one of the coaches. Ichiro strolled to the end of the text. “Some guy named Tom Brady. Who the f- is Tom Brady?”

What do you think? Was there someone else that should have been included on the list? Do you think I whiffed bigtime somewhere? Let me know, and until then, enjoy your time thinking about these Mariners who were such a big help to the organization, and made it more fun as a fan!