Ranking the 5 worst Seattle Mariners contracts in recent history

There’s always a worry, regardless of the sport, the player, or the size of deal, that the contract is going to be a bust. Maybe the player will get hurt. Maybe they just won’t be good. Maybe it was a straight overpay that the team never should have handed out. The Mariners haven’t had a ton of awful contracts in their history, but they’ve had their fair share.

It’s why I thought it would be fun/interesting/sad to take a look at the five worst contracts that the Mariners have handed out in recent history. Take note that I say recent history. I’m trying to keep this to the last 10-15 years. It can be hard to track numbers accurately before then, and guys making $1 million and having a bad season make it a bad deal, but not an all-time awful one. Before I get to the top 5 though, I wanted to go through some of the honorable mentions.

Let’s look at some of the worst contracts ever signed by the Seattle Mariners

The one that first came to mind was Evan White. He won a gold glove his first year, but the bat just hasn’t been there at all. He’s hit .165/.235/.308 so far in his career, but it’s only through 279 ABs. He’s got plenty of time to figure it out, and if he does, not only could his contract be worth it, but it would still be a fantastic deal.

Richie Sexson came to mind as well. However, he still had a pretty darn good two seasons to start his time in a Mariners jersey. He had a combined 6.6 WAR those first two years with 73 HR and 76 2B.

I almost put Miguel Batista in, as his 3-24 was pretty bad. However, his first season was good, and he racked up a 2.8 WAR season. He would go -2 and -0.1 after that, so it was still pretty bad. If i had to put one more person on the list, it would probably be him. Marc Rzepczynski almost made the list too with a 2-11, but he was decent his first year, and hardly pitched the second (7.1 innings).

Lastly, there is Paxton. I couldn’t take putting Big Maple on here, despite the $8.5 million the team had to pay him for 1.1 innings, but i’ll give him a pass since he had surgery, and it’s not like he was bad… he just got hurt.

For those who wanted Cano on here, prepare to be disappointed. He was actually pretty good for the Mariners, with a 23.5 WAR in 4.5 seasons. They paid him $108 million during that time, which comes in at $4.6 million per win, much better than the market rate of around $7 million per win.

Those are who I have as honorable mentions. Whether they just weren’t quite bad enough, had good stretches, or didn’t hurt the payroll enough to make the list, they still all deserve recognition as a (dis)honorable mention. Here is the real list. Coming in hot at #5 is…

#5: Felix Hernandez: 2013-2019: 7 years/$175 million

Was I happy when they signed Felix to that deal back when it happened? 100% no doubt about it. I was ecstatic that they were keeping the King. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball, and seeing the team commit to keeping him was a welcome surprise. There was definitely a worry that they weren’t going to sign him, or would possibly trade him.

Little did we know, that the contract would actually end up being a bad thing in the end.

Through the 2012 season, Felix had amassed quite the stat line. A Cy Young, a second-place finish, and a fourth-place finish. A career ERA of 3.22, a FIP of 3.30, a 1.212 WHIP, and a WAR of 33.9. Plus, he just ate innings, averaging 219 from 2006-2012.

Unfortunately, Felix’s arm started to fall apart about halfway through the deal, possibly due to all those innings. I know WAR isn’t everything, but it’s still a pretty good indicator of how someone is doing. Here are his ERA, FIP, and WAR for each season.

• 2013: 3.04 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 5.1 WAR
• 2014: 2.14 ERA, 2.56 FIP, 6.4 WAR
• 2015: 3.53 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 4.6 WAR
• 2016: 3.82 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 1.3 WAR
• 2017: 4.36 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 0.7 WAR
• 2018: 5.55 ERA, 5.18 FIP, -1.0 WAR
• 2019: 6.40 ERA, 6.00 FIP, -0.6 WAR

When you take into account that a win in WAR costs about $7 million. Felix’s WAR over that time was a paltry 16.5. That’s only worth $115 million. He was on such a good pace over those first three years and was only 30 years old in 2016. He was on pace for 37.57 WAR after the first three seasons, which means the team would’ve “saved” $87.97 million if he kept it up.

I love Felix, and was really saddened to see his career fall apart so early. I was hoping that he would keep up with Verlander, re-discover his velocity, and pitch into his mid/late 30’s. He didn’t, and it earns him a spot as the 5th worst contract in Mariners history.

#4: Yusei Kikuchi: 2019-2021: 3 years/$51.775 million (includes posting fee)

I know that Yusei Kikuchi was an All-Star for the Mariners in 2021. He was having a great season too. Here’s his stat line for 2021 through his first 15 starts.

• 3.18 ERA, 93.1 innings, .195/265/.353, 93 Ks

I leave it there because there were worrying signs that it wouldn’t last. A 4.30 FIP. 31 BBs. 15 HRs. .221 BABIP. None of those are good indicators of continued success. Yes, it seemed like if he could get rid of the darn poorly timed home runs, he would be having an incredible season. Instead, here is what he posted over his next 14 starts.

• 6.22 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 63.2 innings, .304/.385/.532, .374 BABIP, 12 HR, 31 BB

It was ugly, and it was often. If you think that maybe I’m over-reacting because of a bad stretch, why don’t we take a look at his career numbers for the Mariners.

• 4.97 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 1.403 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9, .267/.332/.474, 90.2 Exit Velo, 2.3 WAR

Do you know what’s even worse? You could argue and make a case that in his first 15 starts, he provided more than a 2.3 WAR. If anything, it was around that number. This means that when you take up the remainder of his Mariners career, he was a negative overall.

You could see the talent there. Kikuchi would be amazing sometimes. When you weigh it all together, though, what the Mariners paid for Yusei mixed with the production that they received from him makes it one of the worst contracts that the Mariners have ever signed.

#3: Jeff Weaver: 2007: One year/$8.325 million

Like the top player on the list, it doesn’t really make sense as to why the Mariners spent the amount of money they did to get Jeff Weaver on the team. He had up-and-down seasons over the prior four to signing with the Mariners, with ERAs of 5.99, 4.01, 4.22, and 5.76. The most recent season before signing with the Mariners wasn’t just bad, it was awful.

• 172 IP, 5.76 ERA, 5.47 FIP, 1.512 WHIP, 1.8 HR/9, 11.1 H/9, 2.5 BB/9, .303/.354/.523

I see nothing there that is deserving of an $8.325 contract, even though it was just for one season. However, if you think “hey, maybe he would do a bit better with the Mariners, he did have some good seasons recently and still could eat innings” well, you would be sorely mistaken.

• 146.2 IP, 6.20 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 1.534 WHIP, 1.4 HR/9, 11.7 H/9, 2.1 BB/9, .315/.357/.519

Also, it’s even crazier when you realize that Weaver threw two complete-game shutouts that season. The first came in the 9th start of the season for Weaver, and dropped his ERA from 10.97 to 8.56. The second came in the middle of August, a 6-0 win against the White Sox. That means that outside of those two games, his season ERA was actually 7.06 on the season!

You know what, let’s go even further. There were two other starts on the season where he went eight innings and gave up one run. To me, there were two Weavers we got on the season. The good one showed up for four starts with a 0.53 ERA in 34 innings, and the one who threw 23 starts with a 7.91 ERA. That’s awful. It’s essentially going 5.2 innings every start and giving up five runs.

His WAR was only -0.5 on the season, but that’s because he had the two complete-game shutout wins. If not for those, he would be higher up on the list. For now, he earns the #3 spot for worst contracts in Mariners history.

#2: Chone Figgins: 2010-2012: 4 years/$36 million (paid final year of deal)

I wanted Figgins to be good so badly. I’ve always had a soft spot for the little speedy/scrappy guy who can play defense. I’m 6’6″, but still like watching those little guys. I have to admit, I was really excited when he got signed. I’d long been a fan of his while he was on the Angels, and was ecstatic when he came to the Mariners.

The first year with Seattle wasn’t even that bad. It wasn’t great, but he still hit .259/.340/.306 with 42 steals. We all hoped it was a blip, and that he would improve for the rest of the contract. I never expected that he would put up a statline like he did his final year in LA (.298/.395/.393, 114 R, 42 SB, 7 3Bs, 101 BBs, 4.8 oWAR, 3.3 dWAR, 7.7 WAR), but getting seasons in the 3.0 WAR range seemed reasonable, and that contract had the potential to be a steal if he did.

Instead, his career was pretty much over after that first season in Seattle. In the next two seasons, he would tally 147 Games Played, a slash line of .185/.249/.253, an OPS+ of 45, and just 15/22 on SB attempts. The fact that they had to pay out the final year of the deal made it worse, meaning they paid all $36 million for a player that gave them -0.9 WAR in three seasons.