Seattle Mariners 2021 Wild Card Chase Breakdown, Pt. 2

The Seattle Mariners are currently in the middle of a massive 4-game series against the team tied with us in the Wild Card standings: the Oakland Athletics.  ESPN currently gives both us and Oakland a 1.5% chance at making the playoffs, so a lot needs to break our way.

First, a brief snapshot of where the Wild Card race is.  With 1.5 weeks left in the season, the Boston Red Sox currently lead the Wild Card race with a 1.5G lead over the Toronto Blue Jays.  The New York Yankees find themselves 0.5G behind Toronto, with the Oakland A’s and our beloved Seattle Mariners tied at 3G back from the second Wild Card spot.  Let’s take a look at what each team faces down the final stretch of the 2021 season.

Boston Red Sox (87-65, Last 10: 7-3; Playoff Probability: 92.1%)

A few weeks ago, the Red Sox were 80-62 and were in the middle of a COVID outbreak.  With a lot of uncertainty swirling around this organization, and a difficult upcoming schedule, it would have been easy to assume this team would hand back some games and potentially fall back into the pack of teams chasing the second Wild Card spot.

Instead, Boston went on to lose the series to the White Sox before taking the series here in Seattle and completing a series sweep over the Orioles.  They’re now a virtual lock for one of the Wild Card spots, and Red Sox fans can expect to win well over 90 games this year.  Below is their upcoming schedule:

1.      1G vs. NYM: The Mets are clinging to their lives in the NL Wild Card race, but are virtually eliminated when considering their playoff probability is currently 0.1%.  The Red Sox are also throwing Chris Sale today, tilting this game heavily in favor of Boston.
Prediction: 1 win.

2.      3G vs. NYY: The Red Sox throw the core of their rotation (Eovaldi, Pivetta, and Rodriguez) in arguably the most difficult three games left of their season.  Both of these teams are heating up at the right time, making this series a must-watch.  I’d tilt this series in favor of Boston simply because they’re playing at Fenway, but this series could get crazy in a hurry.
Prediction: 2 wins.

3.      3G @ BAL: Sale, Eovaldi, and Pivetta are scheduled to throw in this series, which to me means two pitchers throwing on short rest before the playoffs.  If the Red Sox clinch the top Wild Card spot by this series, expect them to switch into cruise control and give guys rest to ensure fresh legs and arms entering the postseason.
Prediction: 2 wins (could very easily become a sweep).

4.      3G @ WAS: This series involves one of the best teams in the AL versus one of the worst teams in all of the majors.  Not a tough series, but resting players becomes a reality at this stage.  Still seems like a series lock for the Red Sox to carry them into hosting the AL Wild Card game.
Prediction: 2 wins (could sweep here, but back-to-back sweeps are rare).

I think it’s clear that we aren’t catching the Red Sox – if I’m right on these predictions, the Red Sox would finish the season with 94 wins and would host the AL Wild Card game.  Needless to say it’d be an unfavorable setting for our young Mariners squad…but…crazier things have happened in winner-take-all games.

Toronto Blue Jays (85-66, Last 10: 7-3; Playoff Probability: 65.7%)

As of now, it seems likely that Toronto is the second Wild Card team.  I had guessed that Toronto would be at 84 games after the wrap of the Tampa Bay series, and they currently sit at 85.  Their only difficult games are against the Yankees, which makes their road to the second Wild Card spot theirs to win (or lose).  Below is their remaining schedule:

1.      4G @ MIN: The Twins are struggling to produce wins right now, no question about it.  They haven’t won a series in two weeks, dropping their last 3 to KC, CLE, and TOR.  I’d say TOR likely wins this 4-game stint in Minnesota, but the Mariners realistically need a series split.
Prediction: 2 wins.

2.      3G vs. NYY: I previously wrote that the Yankees win this series, given the previous series loss to the Red Sox.  I stand by that, but also recognize that we could find ourselves in a scenario where we need Toronto to win here, depending on where the Yankees stand.  Basically, whichever team is higher in the standings needs to lose this series 1-2.
Prediction: 1 win.

3.      3G vs. BAL: Baltimore is playing poor baseball right now, but John Means is throwing in the series opener.  We’ve fallen victim to a couple of Means gems, so it’s possible he produces one here.  It’s almost a lock for Toronto to win two games, with a series sweep not being outside the realm of possibility.
Prediction: 2 wins (could turn into a sweep).

If their remaining ten games go how we can expect them to go, the Blue Jays would end the season with…90 wins.  That’d mean a tie between the Yankees and Blue Jays for that final playoff spot, and would be a ton of fun to watch.  As I’ll get into later, this would be exactly what the Mariners need to see to remain competitive.

Oakland A’s (82-69, Last 10: 5-5; Playoff Probability: 1.4%)

My Uncle is from Oakland, and I recall getting a text from him one year ago last week: “See that green and gold in your rear view?”  As much as Oakland has historically been a thorn in our Mariners’ side, I am relishing in the fact that we have caused them so much grief this year.  We’re 10-4 against the A’s this year, which sets this team up to miss the playoffs.  Let’s dive into how badly they’ll miss the cut by (spoiler: it won’t be close):

1.      2G vs SEA: The Mariners have already won 2 of this 4 game series, and look poised to finish them off with Flexen coming off the mound tonight.  I have my doubts about Kikuchi in the series closer tomorrow, but that’s tomorrow’s problem.
Prediction: 1 win.

2.      3G vs. HOU: Houston looks red-hot right now, winning 8 of their last 10.  They look poised to make another deep playoff run…yay.  As Bernie Mac once said in Ocean’s Thirteen: “’Nough said.”
Prediction: 1 win (might get swept)

3.      3G @ SEA: Seattle throws Flexen, Kikuchi, and Gilbert in this series.  That’s huge.  I love us winning the first and third games, with potentially a second game W.  I’d put 1 win here for Oakland, but don’t be surprised if we pull out a sweep.
Prediction: 1 win (might get swept)

4.      3G @ HOU: Oakland finishes their season in Houston.  Ouch.  I’d say they win 2 games, if only because Oakland will be eliminated at this point and Houston will be resting players for the playoffs.
Prediction: 1 win

Given these predictions, Oakland would end the season with 86 wins and would be eliminated from the postseason by…the Seattle Mariners.  How poetic is that.  Goodnight, Oakland.  Hopefully you figure out your stadium woes.

Seattle Mariners (82-69, Last 10: 5-5; Playoff Probability: 1.4%)

Now that we’ve gone through every other team in the playoff hunt, let’s look at what the Mariners need to do (hint: they can’t dump a series to the Angels).  In 2021, our records against Oakland and Los Angeles are 10-4 and 8-5, respectively.  It feels like this offense is heating up at just the right time, and our remaining schedule is incredibly favorable.

1.      2G @ OAK: We’re throwing Flexen and Kikuchi tonight.  Realistically, we need every game we can get.  I have all the confidence that we pick up tonight’s game and go into tomorrow looking for the sweep.  If we find ourselves up in Kikuchi’s start, we have to win.
Prediction: 1 win.

2.      3G @ LAA: We’re throwing 3 reliable, consistent pitchers in this series.  Gilbert looks to have rediscovered his early season form, Anderson is rock solid, and Marco hasn’t lost a start since the All Star game.  I’d say we sweep here – it’s the home stretch, and we need every W we can get.
Prediction: 2 wins (might need a sweep).

3.      3G vs. OAK: Flexen, Kikuchi, and Gilbert throw in this series.  Given Kikuchi’s recent form, it’s difficult to know how he’ll fare.  I’ll take Logan and Chris in must-win games purely for their competitive natures.  This needs to be a series win.
Prediction: 2 wins.

4.      3G vs. LAA: At this point, we’ll be at 87 wins and would put us 3 wins short of where I’m projecting both the Blue Jays and Yankees to be.  It’s fair to say that anything can happen, and teams can inexplicably drop games to anyone, but sweeping the Angels in either series would appear to be a must.
Prediction: 2 wins (might need a sweep)

The morale of the story here is clear: the Mariners have no margin for error the rest of the season.  They cannot lose a series, and might even find themselves in need of a sweep.  There have been a few managerial errors in bullpen use (keeping pitchers out too long, making late subs, etc.) as of late, but zero margin of error extends to all facets of the organization.

For the Mariners to break the playoff drought and reach 90 wins, we need a sweep somewhere.  My thinking is…it could come in the series down in Anaheim.  If we can hit 90 wins, it’s very possible we enter some sort of crazy three-way-tie for the second Wild Card spot where the explanation for solving such a scenario is murky at best.  The chaos ball continues…