Kyle Seager and the $20MM Dilemma

The Seattle Mariners’ front office has their biggest offseason in years rapidly approaching, both in terms of managing existing personnel and handling free agency.  One massive decision that likely serves as the first domino in subsequent player decisions: how to handle Kyle Seager’s 2022 option.

Given that Seager reached the 4,375 total plate appearances required to unlock the highest level of his pay escalator, his 2022 option is worth $20MM with a $2MM buyout.  I’ll dive into what type of player he is right now, and how his current value should drive what the Mariners decide to do with his 2022 option.

Current Picture

To adequately assess Seager’s current market value, it’s important to first understand his historical statistics.  He has a career slash line (BA/OBP/SLG) of .251/.322/.443, and his career BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .271.  Defensively, he’s been an absolute rock for the Mariners with a career fielding percentage of .966 and an average games per season played of 154.

His 2021 offensive statistics would suggest a noticeable decline in productivity; his 2021 slash line is .208/.288/.443, with his batting average being the lowest he’s posted in his career. He’s also seen a steady and consistent decline in BABIP from .295 posted in 2016 to .215 posted in 2021. Finally, his wRC+ (Runs per PA adjusted for both league and park, where 100 is the average) of 100 further proves that he is an average hitter.

Defensively, Seager currently is and always has been known for being an above-average third baseman.  His current and career fielding percentages are exactly the same (.966).  He’s also participated in a career high number of double plays (39).  His defensive runs saved (DRS) in 2020 and 2021 are identical (-3) but do show a decline from his positive output from 2014-2017 and 2019, where his DRS ranged from 7-15.

2022 Option: $20MM ($2MM buyout)

Using 2021 salaries, $20MM would put Kyle Seager tied for Alex Bregman (HOU, $20MM, 2.1 fWAR) for 5th highest paid third baseman.  Other players in this salary range include Josh Donaldson (MIN, $23MM, 1.9 fWAR), Matt Carpenter (STL, $19.5MM, -0.2 fWAR), and Kris Bryant (SF, $19.5MM, 3.9 fWAR).  Given Kyle Seager’s fWAR of 2.6, it becomes increasingly clear that $20MM is too steep for the Mariners to pay out.

Before everyone goes screaming “Kyle Seager was done dirty by the Mariners after committing 10 years to this team and city”, the following is how I think the Mariners front office should handle Seager’s option:

The front office should go to Seager and inform him that they do not intend to pick up his option, but that they’d like to extend him a 2-year, $26MM contract.  This type of offer demonstrates a continued commitment to him and his family, and allows the Mariners fan base to enjoy what would likely be his final contract.  If he were to decline and look for higher pay elsewhere, the Mariners could then take that $20MM and go after a Kris Bryant.

Bottom Line: Do the Seattle Mariners bring Kyle Seager back in 2022?

I think Kyle Seager has proven his loyalty to the Mariners and the city of Seattle, and deserves to be shown respect for his efforts over the last 10 years. While the team almost certainly knew he would reach the required number of plate appearances to unlock the $20MM option, it’s a borderline guarantee that the Mariners front office does not pick him up at that price.

While he’s a defensive stalwart, his offensive decline (particularly the decline in BABIP) makes me afraid that Father Time is catching up to him.  I’d love (and hope) to see Kyle Seager return for his last contract so this city can give him the proper send off that he deserves (via a 2022 postseason appearance), but he isn’t worth the $20MM price tag that comes with his 2022 option.