Seattle Mariners 2021 Wild Card Chase Breakdown, Pt. 1

Boston Red Sox (80-62, Last 10: 5-5)

Simply put: Boston is in the midst of a brutal stretch of games, which works out incredibly well for us Seattle fans.  Their last 13 games have involved alternating between playing Cleveland (4-2) and Tampa Bay (3-4), and they now go on the road to play 3 against the White Sox before a pivotal 3-game series here in Seattle.  They’ll then head back to Boston to play 3 games against Baltimore and 2 against the Mets.  A final wrinkle in Boston’s playoff plans: a COVID outbreak currently sidelining a large chunk of their bullpen, plus Xander Bogaerts and Nick Pivella.  While most of the impacted players will likely be available to play against Chicago, it’ll be interesting to see which players are activated and if Nick Pivella can even make his next start given that he tested positive on September 5th.

Below is Boston’s upcoming schedule and what the Mariners can realistically expect:

1. 3G @ CWS: The White Sox are a tough team to play at home (46-24 home record).  It’s likely the Red Sox walk away with only one win from this series, and it’ll be thanks in large part to Chris Sale’s start for the series finale.
   Prediction: 1 win.
2. 3G @ SEA: Mark your calendars, because this is going to look and feel like a playoff game.  While I’d like to tell myself we’ll sweep these guys and all will be great, I think Boston gets 1 win off Gilbert while Anderson and Gonzo lock things down to solidify a series win for the good guys.
   Prediction: 1 win.
3.  3G vs. BAL: Likely a series sweep, but a lockdown 2 games in the W column.  Unfortunately for Mariners fans, no possible John Means gem for us to bank on.
   Prediction: 2 wins (possible sweep).
4. 2G vs. NYM: Likely a series split, given that the NYM are still playing for a playoff spot and will be looking to battle.
   Prediction: 1 win.

All told, I think Mariners fans would be elated with a series win against a team like the Red Sox.  It’s also not unrealistic to expect that, come 9/22 and with 9 games remaining, the Red Sox would find themselves at 85 wins.  This is the stretch where the Mariners need to pick up ground, considering the Red Sox last 9 games are as follows: 3G vs. NYY, 3G @ BAL, and 3G @ WAS.  Those last six games make me nervous and are an easy way for the Red Sox to get hot and finish the season between 90-91 wins.

New York Yankees (78-61, Last 10: 2-8)

The Yankees were the hottest team in baseball only a short time ago, but have since gone the other direction.  They’re currently staring down the barrel of a 4-game sweep by the red-hot Blue Jays, and haven’t won a series since August 24th against Atlanta.  Losing to the Angels (1-2) and the Orioles (1-2) is shocking, considering the talent this roster has particularly in the middle of the lineup.  It was also reported yesterday that Gerrit Cole is currently out with a hamstring injury, which simply makes things that much more difficult for the Yankees coming into the final few weeks of the season.

Below is New York’s upcoming schedule and what the Mariners can realistically expect:

1. Final game against TOR: Given the amount on the line for both teams, it’s hard to imagine the Yankees being gifted this game.  Their recent form also suggests this is potentially a 4-game sweep for the Blue Jays.  I’m going to lean the way of the Jay and say…down go the Pinstripes.
   Prediction: 0W
2. 1G vs. MIN: The Twins are not having one of their better seasons, but might catch a lucky break as this was scheduled to be Cole’s next start.  If the Yankees have to trot out a bullpen start, things get really interesting from a Mariners fan’s perspective.  We know all too well how tricky bullpen starts are, both for that day and the ramifications on following games.  Prediction: 0W
3. 3G @ BAL: This series feels like a get-right series for the Yankees.  Let’s face it: they’re not going to continue to lose like they have been.  John Means does have a start in this series, so that likely prevents a series sweep.  I’ll certainly be rooting for the Orioles, since they just took a series in the Bronx a few weeks back, but it’s hard to predict that happening again.  Prediction: 2 wins
4. 3G vs. CLE: Plesac starting in Game 2 gives us Mariners fans hope of a potentially pivotal rubber match, as the Yankees currently have Kluber slated to throw in Game 1.
   Prediction: 2 wins
5. 3G vs. TEX: How poetic would it be for the Rangers to claim so many close games from us earlier in the season, only to have them provide us with a series win against the Yankees when we need it most?  That’s baseball, baby.
   Prediction: 1 win.  Go…Rangers?

The Yankees have a brutal closing schedule, with their final 9 games equally split among Boston, Toronto, and Tampa Bay.  Given the predictions above, the Yankees would be at 83 wins and likely out of the second Wild Card spot.  It’s possible the Yankees don’t clear 90 wins this season, which I think every Yankee fan would consider an epic failure.

Toronto Blue Jays (76-62, Last 10: 9-1)

The Blue Jays are playing like one of the best teams in baseball right now.  They’re on the verge of a 4-game sweep against the Yankees in the Bronx, which I would’ve thought was inconceivable if someone told me that a few weeks back.  They also benefit from having 4 games in Baltimore on deck to further pad that win column.  At 1.5G behind NYY for the second Wild Card spot, Toronto is a team that could really open up a lead in the Wild Card standings.

Below is New York’s upcoming schedule and what the Mariners can realistically expect:

1. Final game @ NYY: I think this team’s too hot to lose right now.  Series sweep, and another game gained on the second Wild Card spot.
   Prediction: 1 win
2. 4G @ BAL: Back-to-back 4 game sweeps feels improbable.  It does feel like the Blue Jays have to cool off at some point, given the emotional toll that such a pivotal series against the Yankees can have.
   Prediction: 2 wins
3. 3G vs. TB: The Blue Jays aren’t necessarily dominant at home (39-29), and the Rays are the best team in the American League.  I think the cooling period from the Orioles series lingers, and Tampa Bay snags the series win on the road.
   Prediction: 1 win
4. 3G vs. MIN: Getting to play a team like the Twins after a tough loss to the Rays allows the Blue Jays to correct themselves and get back on track.  They’re last in the American League, and the Blue Jays have Ryu and Matz assigned for Games 1 and 2.  Definitely, 2 wins here, I’d even say likely a sweep.
   Prediction: 3 wins
5. 3G @ TB: What I’ve realized from Toronto’s schedule is a fluctuation between playing teams at the top and bottom of the AL standings.  Going into Tampa Bay and expecting a series win is tough (unless you’re the Seattle Mariners), so it’s fair to assume the Rays take care of business at home.
   Prediction: 1 win

Tampa Bay’s schedule down the stretch is a continuation of this fluctuation, as they play 4 games in Minnesota before a 6-game homestand against the Yankees and Orioles.  With 10 games left, Toronto could find themselves well-positioned in the Wild Card standings with 84 wins and 7 games left against two teams at the bottom of the American League.

Similar to the Red Sox, Toronto could end the season with between 90-91 wins – and that’s assuming they don’t win the series against the Orioles in a few days.

Oakland A’s (75-64, Last 10: 5-5)

Oakland has the potential to pick up some momentum over the course of the next two weeks.  They’re currently 3G behind the Yankees, and 0.5G behind our Mariners.  They’re playing a rubber match today at home against the White Sox, with Manaea on the mound.  Given Oakland’s upcoming schedule, they could put some pressure on teams above them in the next two weeks.  Their end-of-season schedule is…brutal.  More on that below.

Below is New York’s upcoming schedule and what the Mariners can realistically expect:

1. Final game against CWS: Both teams are throwing stud pitchers, so it’ll be a battle.  I always tend to slightly lean towards the home team (even if the A’s only draw ~6,000 fans per game), so this series tilts in favor of the A’s.
   Prediction: 1 win
2. 3G vs. TEX: The Rangers are a difficult team to play.  Texas won the previous series in Arlington, while the A’s took care of business the last time the Rangers came to the Coliseum.  This series tilts towards the A’s, but I don’t see a sweep in play.
   Prediction: 2 wins
3. 3G @ KC: The A’s are throwing their studs in the first two games of this series (Manaea and Montas), so another series win seems likely.  This would mean a 3-series win streak for Oakland, which is not something to get excited about as a Mariners fan.
   Prediction: 2 wins
4. 3G @ LAA: The Angels have a few players looking to come off the IL right around this series, including players like Dylan Bundy and…Mike Trout.  If they start to get their studs back, they could be a team that looks to ruin at least one team’s playoff hopes.  Dear Baseball gods, please don’t pick us.  Take Oakland, instead.
   Prediction: 2 wins
5. 4G vs. SEA: This is the start of a brutal stretch for the A’s.  We play the A’s incredibly well lately, as we’re 5-1 against Oakland during the second half of the season.  If we can keep that going, it’s going to be hard to stop us down the stretch (Oakland and Seattle play each other 7 times down the stretch).
   Prediction: 2 wins (cautiously optimistic for 1 win here)

If Oakland can keep their winning streak alive, they’ll be a dangerous team and in contention by mid-month.  Given the above predictions, Oakland would find itself at 84 wins by 9/23 and would be tied with Toronto.  Oakland’s big problem is their remaining 9 games: they have 6 games left against Houston and 3 games left against Seattle.  Clearing 90 wins seems highly improbable, thus likely eliminating them from contention.

Seattle Mariners (76-64, Last 10: 7-3)

As it stands, we’re 2.5G behind the Yankees and 1G back from the Blue Jays.  The travel/rest day today is well-deserved after winning 4 of 7 against Arizona and Houston.  Yes, we should’ve won the series against Houston.  We didn’t – be a goldfish.  We have some massive games on the horizon, so let’s get down to it.

Here’s who we play, and how we need to do:

1. 3G vs. ARI: We get the team we just swept a few days ago as a perfect setup series for what lies ahead.  As long as our guys can stay focused and not get caught looking ahead, we’ll take care of business.  If this turns into a trap series, and we get caught not paying attention to the series at hand, we’ll find ourselves in must-win situations a few days later.
   Prediction: 2 wins
2. 3G vs. BOS: This is going to be a playoff series.  Get tickets, because this is a series we have to win.  I previously predicted that the Mariners would win this series 2-1, thanks to quality starts from Anderson and Gonzalez.  I stand by that.  I also think that we’re two missed pitches from a 3-series win streak heading into this game.
   Prediction: 2 wins
3. 3G @ KC: We handed away a 4-game series at home against the Royals in late August, and you can bet the players will remember that for these games.  It helps to have Flexen scheduled for Game 1, but my eyes are on Kikuchi’s form for Game 2.  If Kikuchi continues his struggles, is it worth swapping him out for Sheffield?  The Mariners can’t fork over two series losses to the Royals and claim to be a playoff-caliber team, so I have to call this for the Mariners.
   Prediction: 2 wins
4. 4G @ OAK: I predicted previously that we’d split the series against Oakland, but this feels like a series we can steal.  We play Oakland tough, and we’ll be on a serious heater if the previous predictions hold true.  As a Mariner fan, I’m rooting for a sweep.  Cautious optimism, friends.
   Prediction: 2 wins (don’t be surprised if we win this series)

I maintain that Seattle is one of the most underrated and underappreciated teams in baseball.  I’m fine with that.  If we can wrap this stretch of games as predicted above, we’ll be at between 84-85 wins and either in a 3-way tie with NYY and OAK or slightly ahead (this boils down to the series win in Oakland).  Our schedule down the stretch is as follows:  3G @ LAA, 3G vs. OAK, 3G vs. LAA.  Those are all seriously winnable games, as 2 series wins and no sweeps would put us at 89-90 wins and on the verge – then all we need is a little chaos.

I’m not going to say the usual “I could be wrong, we could fold and be irrelevant by mid-month” because I don’t believe it.  As a Mariners fan, I believe in this team and its ability to win series after series.  We held Houston to 3 runs in a 3-game series, with two shutouts.  We’ve won 2 of our last 3 series, and look poised to go on a run.  To hit 90 wins, we need to win that 4G series against Oakland to put us at the same win total as Boston and Toronto – it’s attainable.