Mariners Preview: They’ll need to find a way to hit Jake Odorizzi

After losing the first game of the series to the Houston Astros, the Mariners will face a foe that has caused them fits the last two times they have seen him pitch. Jake Odorizzi takes the mound, and the Mariners will look to solve the man who has dominated them his last two starts.

Back in April, Odorizzi was struggling. He got shelled in his opener against Detroit. Then, the Mariners got to him for four runs in 4.1 innings. Since then, he has been a much better pitcher, with a 3.73 ERA in 82 innings. The Mariners actually hit him decent in their second matchup with him, scoring three runs in 5.1 innings.

Since then, Jake Odorizzi has had the Mariners number

Two starts. 10.2 innings. Six hits. Six walks (promising). Two runs. 15 Ks. The strikeout part is concerning, as outside of those last two starts, he has a K rate of just 7.41 in every other start, and a 12.66 against the Mariners in those two starts.

If the Mariners are going to even up the series, it’s going to be incredibly important for them to figure out a way to get to Odorizzi. The first way that pops out is taking pitches and seeing if the high walk rate continues. Get on base, use speed and small ball to move around and cause problems, raise that pitch count, and get him out in 4/5 innings once again. Only, this time, it’s with more than one run scored.

There’s also the high strikeout rate. Either he’s being effectively wild, or the Mariners are chasing too many pitches and getting impatient. Knowing the Mariners of this season (5th most strikeouts), it could definitely be a chase/impatient combo. If he is throwing enough pitches in the zone to get strikeouts, being aggressive early could be the way to go.

I understand that I’m providing two completely different arguments here. “Be patient or be aggressive… duh”. The Mariners know how many first-pitch strikes he is throwing though, since, you know, that’s part of their job. If he is constantly putting them behind in the count, they should expect early strikes. Looking at the stats, you can see that 57.6% of his first pitches to a batter have gone for strikes this year.

Overall, just 48.8% of his pitches are in the zone. To me, the Mariners should be aggressive early, looking for that first-pitch strike. Then, if they don’t get it, wait for a strike. It’s sort of like Marco. If he is ahead in the count, you’re in trouble. If he’s behind, you can wait for your pitch and take advantage.

Regardless of the approach that the Mariners take, they are going to need to change something up in order to get to Jake Odorizzi. If not, they are going to fall behind in the series 2-0, which would hurt a lot with only a few weeks left in the season.