Three Seattle Mariners Trades for Zach Davies

Arguably the best part about the MLB trade deadline is speculating what players could move and what players actually will move. There are likely 15 teams currently in the market for starting pitching, among them our beloved Seattle Mariners (55-46, 1.0G behind Oakland). It’s easy to list off the household names that could be on the move before July 30th (Scherzer, Berrios, Gibson, Means, Marquez, etc.), but a lesser-known name that is potentially a perfect fit for the Mariners is Zach Davies of the Chicago Cubs.

Davies (4.30 ERA, 94 ERA+, 1.0 WAR) is a 28-year-old born currently in his 7th year as a major league pitcher. His 2021 ERA is misleading – his April ERA was 9.47, which means he’s settled into the season after a few rough outings. Since May 1, he’s posted the following monthly ERA values: 1.72 (May), 3.82 (June), and 4.30 (July).

It is worth noting the downside: he is tied for the most walks surrendered in the majors (54 BB’s). Even given his high walk rate, he’s consistently a top-3 starting pitcher in terms of games started – this type of consistency and health has been a huge issue for the Mariners rotation and is something we’re dying to have on our pitching staff.

Considering his ERA+, he’d fit in nicely as a number 4 pitcher and wouldn’t disrupt the three-headed monster we currently deploy at the top of our rotation. Making trades can be a tricky thing, and clubhouse cohesion is incredibly important to maintain – a single trade can derail a clubhouse’s mojo.

An important detail in the Zach Davies trade frenzy was announced a few days ago via John Heyman:

While it’s unsurprising that Davies has attracted interest from other organizations, it does highlight the need so many contenders have for starting pitching. It’s safe to assume that, given where the Cubs stand with their roster, they’ll likely look to acquire youth in any trade they make for Davies to retool an organization only a few years removed from a World Series title.

With Baez and Bryant potentially on the move, Kyle Hendricks on the last year of his deal, and Joc Pederson already in Atlanta (for now), it’s safe to say the Cubs need young talent and they need it fast. Here are some potential trade offers the Mariners could make.

Mariners First Trade Offer to Cubs for Zach Davies

The first trade the Mariners could propose to the Cubs: Zach Davies for Luis Torrens ($3.7M MTV). Torrens currently flexes between catcher and first base, but it’s likely the Cubs would be interested in playing him at 1B in the event Rizzo gets dealt. Torrens currently has a slash line of .223/.291/.462 and has an OPS+ of 110. This slash line is a noticeable decline from Rizzo’s (.248/.346/.441, 115 OPS+), but does fall in line with the rest of the Cubs’ infield.

In fact, Torrens would offer the second-highest OPS+ in the Cubs infield, behind only Contreras (115). On paper, this is an overpay by the Mariners for a number 4 who leads the league in walks – the Mariners would need the Cubs to handle the financial commitments made to Davies through the end of 2021.

It’s a perfect example of how convoluted the starting pitching market is right now, and how competition only drives up asking prices. This really boils down to whether the Mariners can make a lesser trade stick, or if they can find an arm from another team. If they’re desperate, they might push this through.

Mariners Third Trade Offer to Cubs for Zach Davies

One final trade proposal that the Mariners could send to the Cubs: Zach Davies for Taylor Dollard (Everett Aquasox SP, 4.52 ERA, $0.7M MTV) and Keegan McGovern (Arkansas Travelers OF, $0.7M MTV). Dollard was the Mariners’ 5th round pick in last year’s draft, and his first year with the Aquasox has yielded some promising statistics: 67% pitches for strikes and a 5.40 K/BB rate to accompany his 7-2 record.

He’s poised for a promotion to Double-A and could be viewed by the Cubs as a great pitching prospect to add to their farm system. McGovern was a 9th round draft pick in the 2018 draft and has played the entire 2021 season with the Arkansas Travelers. While his Double-A slash line (.182/.317/.292) doesn’t jump off the page as incredible, his BABIP of .309 does. According to Baseball Trade Values, this is another example of the Mariners overpaying for Davies.

I view this trade as the Mariners offering non-critical prospects for a pitcher who we could re-sign after this season if he puts together quality starts down the stretch. Dipoto’s been clear that rentals are of no interest to the organization (thank goodness), but Davies is far from a rental – he’s a 28-year-old with the potential to bring the Mariners to the postseason for the first time since 2002.

Given that the Mariners just won 3 out of 4 against Oakland, and took the first game against Houston, the Mariners are in a position to really make a strong push to win in 2021. They’re 1.0g back from the second Wild Card spot, and they’ve proven that they are capable of beating both teams in front of them in the AL West with their current roster. Imagine how this team performs if we’re able to stop treating every fifth game as a throwaway start.

One intangible advantage that the Mariners have over other teams: Davies was born and raised in Puyallup, WA. Nothing better than making a trade to bring a local boy back to the PNW to bring Seattle its first playoff appearance since 2002.