Breaking down FanGraphs’ Seattle Mariners prospect rankings

It’s no secret that the Seattle Mariners have one of the top farm systems in the league but different websites have their own rankings. Many people, including me, gravitate towards MLB.com’s prospect rankings but let’s break down FanGraphs’ prospect list.

MLB.com has five Seattle Mariners prospects in the Top 100

On MLB.com, the Seattle Mariners have just five prospects in the Top 100:

• Jarred Kelenic #4
• Julio Rodriguez #5
• Emerson Hancock #23
• George Kirby #72
• Noelvi Marte #83

The Seattle Mariners have six prospects on the FanGraphs Top 100

On FanGraphs, the M’s have six players in the Top 100 list and the order may surprise you a bit:

• Jarred Kelenic #3
• Julio Rodriguez #9
• Noelvi Marte #11
• Emerson Hancock #45
• George Kirby #49
• Cal Raleigh #92

The one thing that caught me a little by surprise is how high Noelvi Marte is ranked on FanGraphs. Marte started to get national attention this year after entering MLB.com’s Top 100 as the 83rd prospect but he clearly has impressed the people at FanGraphs.

Noelvi Marte is given a future value of 60, compared to his 55 overall on MLB.com. Kelenic, Rodriguez, and Marte are the only players to have a future value of 60 within the Seattle Mariners farm system.

Emerson Hancock also took a significant hit on FanGraphs, dropping 22 spots. On MLB.com, Hancock is a 55 overall prospect while FanGraphs has him at a 50 future value. A big reason why he could have taken a significant dip on FanGraphs is his limited time on the field.

George Kirby is also rated higher on FanGraphs by quite a bit. He is at #49 compared to his #72 on MLB.com. And in even more recent news, George Kirby became the #14 ranked prospect on Baseball America, which is a huge difference.

The #7-10 Seattle Mariners prospects

• Harry Ford
• Adam Macko
• Matt Brash
• Juan Then

Our 2021 first-round pick, Harry Ford is #7 in the Mariners farm system right behind Cal Raleigh. Shouldn’t be too much of a surprise since he was one of the top-catching draft prospects.

After Ford, we have Adam Macko, who is #13 on MLB.com’s list. The 20-year-old has struggled in Modesto so far but he still has a long way to go.

At #9, we have Matt Brash who has climbed the rankings very quickly. Brash came over from the San Diego Padres in exchange for Taylor Williams and not many expected him to be this good. He is barely in MLB.com’s Top 30, but I am speculating that the list just isn’t updated.

Juan Then has been a huge mystery for me. He has struggled in Everett this year but he is still highly ranked on both sites. He is only 21-years-old but it seems like other pitchers have outperformed him within our organization.

The #11-20 Seattle Mariners prospects

• Brandon Williamson
• Wyatt Mills
• Edwin Arroyo
• Michael Morales
• Zach DeLoach
• Connor Phillips
• Kaden Polcovich
• Taylor Dollard
• Bryce Miller
• Isaiah Campbell

This part of the rankings has quite a bit of discrepancy compared to MLB.com. Wyatt Mills, Taylor Dollard, and Kaden Polcovich are ranked quite a bit higher on FanGraphs. Polcovich’s ranking does not stun me, but where Mills and Dollard sit do a bit. Mills has been great in Tacoma this year, but he struggled during his short time in Seattle.

Dollard is still new to the organization but so far, he’s been just alright. He posted a 3.35 ERA in Modesto, but currently owns a 5.34 in Everett.

Isaiah Campbell is the #10 prospect in the Seattle Mariners organization according to MLB.com, but is all the way down to #20 on FanGraphs. He did have surgery on his elbow which may be the reason why there is a 10 spot difference.

We also have our draft picks Edwin Arroyo, Michael Morales, and Bryce Miller sitting in pretty high spots on an already packed farm system

The #21-30 Seattle Mariners prospects

• Jonatan Clase
• Milkar Perez
• Sam Carlson
• Levi Stoudt
• Ljay Newsome
• Josias De Los Santos
• Alberto Rodriguez
• Carter Bins
• Austin Shenton
• Devin Sweet

This section might be the most shocking for fans that pay attention to the MLB.com rankings often. In the list shown above, only six of them are in MLB.com’s Seattle Mariners prospect rankings. Newsome, De Los Santos, Bins, and Sweet are left off the MLB list but warrant enough value for FanGraphs.

I was also surprised to see Austin Shenton as #29 on FanGraphs considering how well he has been hitting this year.

So, what does this all tell us? Besides the top of the list, there isn’t much to read into it honestly. I think the biggest takeaway is Noelvi Marte almost being a Top 10 prospect according to FanGraphs.