Potential Seattle Mariners Trade Partner: Chicago Cubs

The Seattle Mariners are coming off a two-game series split against the Rockies, thanks in large part to yet another blown bullpen start. If the Mariners miss the postseason yet again, it’ll largely be because of their use of bullpen starts.

The current standings have the Mariners as 3.5 games behind the A’s, with the Yankees (3.5G), Blue Jays (4.5G), and Indians (5.0G) hot on their heels. With a huge 7-game homestand against the A’s (25-18 away) and Astros (27-19 away) starting today, the Mariners have possibly their most difficult stretch of games to date coming right before the deadline.

It’s common knowledge that the Chicago Cubs are sellers, given that they’re 47-49 and currently have a 5.3% chance of playing baseball in October. The Cubs wouldn’t necessarily want prospects, given that they’re attempting to extend Javier Baez and Kris Bryant before putting them on the trade block. Their starting rotation has not been publicly discussed, but there are a few intriguing options that the Mariners could look at for bolstering our rotation.

Kyle Hendricks (3.65 ERA, 109 ERA+, 1.4 WAR)

It would be impossible to discuss Chicago’s rotation without mentioning Kyle Hendricks. He’s 31 years old, so he isn’t exactly young, but he’s a former Cy Young pitcher with postseason success – something the Mariners desperately need. His ERA+ of 109 is one of his lowest in his career (2015 ERA+ of 96), but would rank him as third in the Mariners rotation behind only Chris Flexen (122) and Logan Gilbert (117).

A couple of statistical concerns: he’s currently allowing the highest number of hits per 9 innings (9.5) and the highest ERA (3.65) in his 8-year career. His strikeouts per 9 innings have also steadily declined since 2015 to below 7.0, contributing to his second-lowest SO/W rate in his career. These are real concerns when paired with his age and the financial burden the Mariners would have to take on to bring him over to the west coast.

FYI: Hendricks is currently under contract until 2023 at 4yr/$55.5M. He’d be a splashy signing, but all signs point to this being not worthwhile. Dipoto should look to other options in their rotation.

Zach Davies (4.35 ERA, 92 ERA+, 0.9 WAR)

Zach Davies is a much better-suited candidate for the Mariners. He’s 28 years old, is a free agent at the end of the 2021 season, and is actually from Puyallup. His career ERA+ of 110 suggests that he’s underperforming in Chicago and would welcome a relocation, particularly one to a more pitcher-friendly park, like T-Mobile Park. His walks per 9 innings are at a career-high, lowering his SO/W rate to the lowest of his career (5.7).

According to Baseball Trade Value, the following is a trade that would be accepted by both parties: Zach Davies (-$1.3M mean trade value) for Jake Bauers ($0.6 MTV). Given the recent trade of Joc Pederson to the Braves, Bauers would be a welcome addition to the Cubs. Since shifting to the Mariners, Bauers has posted .248/.290/.297 along with an OPS+ of 68.

He’s never been considered a long-term solution in either the outfield or at first base, especially considering Luis Torrens has begun to play at 1B, and his OPS+ is comparable to Ian Happ (69) and Jason Heyward (74).

Bottom Line

The bottom line is simple: the Mariners simply cannot afford to continue to throw away games via bullpen starts and maintain relevance in the chase for the wild card. While a good second baseman is something the Mariners desperately need, starting pitching must be the position that we address first to put an end to these bullpen starts.

I’m sure all Mariners fans are sick and tired of seeing us toss away every 5th game. This isn’t to say that Darren McCaughan wasn’t good against the Rockies (5IP, 1ER, 0H, 1.8 ERA) – he’s likely a great long-relief option and an excellent stand-in starting candidate, should Marco’s struggles return. The fact remains that the Mariners need a strong, viable starting pitcher to truly compete down the stretch – and the Cubs just might hold the key in Davies.