Mariners: Possible trades in dealing away Jake Fraley

Every year, you have to expect that Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto is going to make a handful of deals and be rumored in even more. He has already made a few trades this year. Most of them are minor, but he did net Jake Bauers, who has looked interesting so far and is slowly proving he should have some time in the lineup.

There are going to be a handful of players who get mentioned in those rumors this year. We already talked a bit about Kyle Seager, and will likely do that a bit more as the season goes on. Same with Mitch Haniger. There will be others as well. For now, let’s look at the bearded wonder in Jake Fraley.

I previously wrote about the fact that the Mariners could look to trade away Jake Fraley if the price is right. Again, don’t just give him away, but take the offer if something is strong and helps the team out. Last year, when they gave up Nola, they got a replacement catcher, a bullpen guy who throws 100, a crazy good hitter, and a highly touted and highly traveled, outfield prospect.

The trade seemed like a strong win for the Mariners last year when it happened and still does, if not more so. In fact, according to baseballtradevalues.com, the Mariners received 53.2 compared to 27.1 in trade value. Does this mean that I will only be looking at trades where we are getting twice the value back? Well… yeah, it sort of does. We are just giving away Fraley, after all.

One of the metrics that we are using here to figure out who could need an outfielder is Weighted Runs Created Plus (WRC+). It comes from Fangraphs, and gives you an idea of production so far compared to league average, and includes park factors. We will also be looking at where those teams compare to the rest of the league in outfield WAR on the season. Finally, it’s not just any team we will be making trades with, but ones with high ceilings/strong playoff odds.

Remember, these are similar value-wise to what happened last year in the Nola trade. Am I saying they will happen? No. Could they? Possibly. If you would’ve asked me last year about the Nola deal, I don’t think I would have believed that the Mariners could’ve gotten that much in return.

Let’s start off with the AL East, and take a look at the first of two teams from that division that we could possibly create a trade surrounding Jake Fraley.

• Toronto: 33-33 – 24th in outfield WAR via Fangraphs – WRC of 95
• Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Teoscar Hernandez is their best-performing outfielder of the year. Lourdes is the most variable but is doing better after a slow start. He does have an abysmal walk rate taking first just seven times in 238 plate appearances. Grichuk is having a decent year, and like Lourdes, doesn’t take walks either. He is normally a below-average defender, even though he is a 0.0 in dWAR so far this year.

This leaves a lot of room for someone like Fraley to come in and provide a solid bat, an on-base threat, and more defensive stability in the outfield. Here’s what trading with Toronto could look like.

As we go through these, you’ll notice a bit of a trend in that I go after other teams’ second baseman to try and fill that spot for the Mariners. Things have looked better since Shed Long came back healthy, but Biggio would still be a great get. Oddly enough, his power somehow translates better to T-Mobile than almost any other park in baseball, at least according to the tracker at baseball savant.

Swanson was dominant earlier this year, and Dipoto has shown the ability to trade away relievers at their peak. It may be a little early to deal Swanson, but the Blue Jays are still in the market for a closer with Kirby Yates sidelined for the entire season.

They need a catcher as well, with both Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk on the IL. Reese McGuire has been filling in admirably, but Murphy would provide a good mix of depth and veteran leadership to a thin backstop for Toronto.

Fraley is the highlight, who would bolster the Jays OBP. He could take a spot in front of their big hitters, as we know Baby Vlad can drive in runs with the best of them. I’m sure Jays fans can picture it in their heads already, watching Fraley take a walk, and seeing Vlad smoke one into the gap while watching Fraley fly around the bases to score.

• Mets: 35-25 – 22nd in outfield WAR via Fangraphs – WRC of 97
• Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, Kevin Pillar

I’m not going to be the one to tell Kevin Pillar he might have to sit. The dude broke his face, then took his bloodied bat back up to the plate once they let him play again, and hit two home runs with it. Michael Conforto is supposed to be their outfielder of the future, so I don’t see him moving either.

However, this team has far and away been the most injured outfield in all of baseball. They need talent, and the Mariners can give them some, even though they are going to have to give up a bit in return.

The trade is highlighted by Jeff McNeil. He is an instant upgrade for the Mariners, and would be an incredible piece to add to the team. He is having a bit of a down year this year, but had a slash line of .319/.383/.501 over the three prior years. Getting McNeil would make the Mariners offense a top ten in the majors, and provide a formidable challenge to anyone facing them.

Coming along with him would be Khalil Lee. He struggled in a recent call-up with the Mets, but is a former top prospect, and would be a nice addition to the team. In fact, he would likely take a place in the outfield in a limited role with the departure of Fraley and Trammell.

We are trading away two good outfielders, but getting an all-star level second baseman back. We also clear up the catcher log jam, and for the second trade in a row, are moving Sheffield.

• Brewers: 38-30 – 20th in outfield WAR via Fangraphs – WRC of 87
• Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Avisail Garcia, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Yelich is hurt but will play if healthy. Garcia playing well enough so far this season to stick in the lineup. Bradley can’t hit the broad side of a barn. Cain is slowing down but is playing okay so far. This is the least likely one because of the combo of potential talent (Yelich) and money, as Cain, Bradley, and Garcia have $71.5 or so over the next two years. Still, it could look something like this.

Taking back one of the outfielders may seem like it defeats the purpose of dealing Fraley, but you have to look at what else they would get here to make it worth it. Having a vet bat near the end of their career can help stability both on the field and in the clubhouse as well. Plus, if he plays well, they could trade him away again to a contender with those same reasons in mind. The team doesn’t need to worry about salary, as they hardly have any on the books through the 2022 season.

They would also get a potential answer at second base in Keston Huira. After an incredible rookie season, it’s been a bit of a struggle for Huira in 2020/21. He is still just 24, and a change of scenery could be the answer to help him regain his confidence. This would let the Mariners keep Moore in a utility position, and give Huira rests more often than you would to a starting second baseman.

With the recent emergence of Shed Long Jr, it might complicate things in getting another young guy to play that role of second base/utility. If the team really does like Shed Long that much, and trust him enough, then it would make something like this a lot more difficult to put through.

Time will tell if Jake Fraley sticks around with the Mariners, or if Dipoto deals him away at more than market/perceived value. For now, let’s enjoy how exciting Jake Fraley has been for the Mariners.