Mariners: Buy or Don’t Buy these Free Agent Starting Pitchers

At the onset of the 2021 season, the Mariners announced their starting rotation: Marco Gonzalez (2020: 7-2, 3.10 ERA), Big Maple (James Paxton, 2020: 1-1, 6.64 ERA), Justus Sheffield (4-3, 3.58 ERA), Chris Flexen (2020 w/ Doosan Bears: 8-4, 3.01 ERA), Yusei Kikuchi (2020: 2-4, 5.17 ERA), and Justin Dunn (2020: 4-1, 4.34 ERA).

I don’t think many Mariners fans would have expected Kikuchi and Dunn to be our strongest starting pitchers going into mid-June.  As a result, starting pitching is likely going to be an area where the organization commits to spending a large amount in the upcoming offseason.

The 2021 free agency class for starting pitching is incredibly strong.  Some notable names include Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance Lynn, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Corey Kluber, Dylan Bundy, and our very own Big Maple (James Paxton).  In total, this class features 5 Cy Young winners (Kershaw 3x, Scherzer 3x, Verlander 2x, Kluber x2, Greinke x1) and provides the Mariners with a plethora of targets in the upcoming offseason.

With the low payroll that the Mariners currently employ, it’s not unreasonable to expect that they’ll make a move for a significant pitcher to lead the rotation next year.

While some of these names are intriguing, there are a few names that are unrealistic.  Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery last year and scouts were reporting a loss of velocity before his rehab assignment was cut short.  Kershaw, Verlander, and Greinke don’t fit the mold of starting pitchers that the Mariners would go after.

As much as Mariners fans love the Big Maple, it’s likely that the front office would require a significant salary decrease before an agreement could be made.  There are a handful of names on this list that could fit the mold of a splashy ace to lead this rotation and will be judged on a buy/don’t buy basis – especially at the right price.

Let’s start off with pitchers that I don’t think the Mariners should go for a.k.a. Don’t Buy.

Corey Kluber, Texas Rangers (35 years old) – Don’t Buy for Mariners

Corey Kluber is another intriguing name, especially when you consider that he sat out almost all of 2019 due to injury (right arm fracture due to line drive) and only threw one start in 2020 (shoulder tightness).  The shoulder tightness is worth noting, but he’s a name to keep an eye on.  He’s an older arm, so the signing would likely be 2-3 years at most, but he’s a three-time All-Star and two-time Cy Young winner.

His statistics are all in line with his averages, but his SO/W has declined from his 2011-2018 average of 4.67 to a 2021 value of 2.39.  This is largely due to the increase in walks per nine innings.  It’s hard to know if this is the result of not throwing consistently since 2018, or if it’s indicative of a larger health concern.  He’s had a few starts, so my inclination is to relate his SO/W decline to his age and injuries which makes him someone Jerry Dipoto should stay away from.

Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants (30 years old) – Don’t Buy for Mariners

Kevin Gausman is currently pitching the best he’s ever thrown in his 8-year career.  He’s 7-0 with an ERA of 1.27 and a 2021 WAR of 3.7, and he has experience pitching in the American League (2013-2018 seasons with Baltimore).  His 2021 stats are impressive, but they appear to be more of a statistical outlier when you consider that his career ERA is 4.04.  In fact, his best ERAs are 3.61 in 2016 with Baltimore and 3.62 with the SF Giants.

The issue the Mariners are going to run into is that Gausman’s price will be steep because of the year he’s currently having down in SF.  Considering what will likely be his price point, and the likely regression he will see back to his career average stats, this is likely a Don’t Buy for Seattle.

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (Turns 37 in July) – Buy for Mariners (for the right price)

My initial reaction when considering Scherzer as a potential FA target for Seattle was the same as everyone else’s – every major market team will go after this guy, and his price is going to be sky-high which would detract from spending in other areas.  I hear you.  Is it likely that he goes to St. Louis, Boston, NYY, or LAD?  Sure.

I think this is one of those times where the franchise demonstrates to the fanbase that, after years of refusal to commit to the spend, the front office inquires and makes an offer.  Maybe it doesn’t land.  Maybe STL throws him an otherworldly sum of cash, and he gets to go home to Missouri to finish his career in his home state.

He is turning 37, so there is a chance that these major teams decide his age and the number of games started (380) will finally catch up to him.  This is where the Mariners fit in – they make an aggressive offer and get a three-time Cy Young winner who could lead this rotation for the next 3 years while we make a run for the Wild Card.

Dylan Bundy, Los Angeles Angels (Turns  29 in November) – Buy for Mariners (for the right price)

Dylan Bundy’s season is off to a rocky start, producing a 1-6 record with a 6.16 ERA in 11 starts.  He’s an interesting free agency target for Seattle for a few reasons: he’s currently in the AL West, he finished ninth in the 2020 AL Cy Young race, has a high ground ball rate of 40.4% – 41.1% in the past three seasons, and historically has proven to produce an ERA+ of between 78 (2018) and 143 (2020).

His career ERA+ of 95 would put him as one of the best pitchers in the Mariners starting rotation, behind only Kikuchi (98) and Dunn (126).  If the Mariners were to make a move, they’d be looking at his progressive improvements made over the past few years.

His ceiling as a Cy Young contender makes him an intriguing target, even if the Mariners only see him produce an ERA+ of >100.  The Mariners could get lucky and end up signing him for a bargain, given his current woes.  He’s worth making a move for, particularly if the price is right.