Mariners: Buy or Don’t Buy these Free Agent Starting Pitchers

At the onset of the 2021 season, the Mariners announced their starting rotation: Marco Gonzalez (2020: 7-2, 3.10 ERA), Big Maple (James Paxton, 2020: 1-1, 6.64 ERA), Justus Sheffield (4-3, 3.58 ERA), Chris Flexen (2020 w/ Doosan Bears: 8-4, 3.01 ERA), Yusei Kikuchi (2020: 2-4, 5.17 ERA), and Justin Dunn (2020: 4-1, 4.34 ERA).

I don’t think many Mariners fans would have expected Kikuchi and Dunn to be our strongest starting pitchers going into mid-June.  As a result, starting pitching is likely going to be an area where the organization commits to spending a large amount in the upcoming offseason.

The 2021 free agency class for starting pitching is incredibly strong.  Some notable names include Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance Lynn, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Corey Kluber, Dylan Bundy, and our very own Big Maple (James Paxton).  In total, this class features 5 Cy Young winners (Kershaw 3x, Scherzer 3x, Verlander 2x, Kluber x2, Greinke x1) and provides the Mariners with a plethora of targets in the upcoming offseason.

With the low payroll that the Mariners currently employ, it’s not unreasonable to expect that they’ll make a move for a significant pitcher to lead the rotation next year.

While some of these names are intriguing, there are a few names that are unrealistic.  Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery last year and scouts were reporting a loss of velocity before his rehab assignment was cut short.  Kershaw, Verlander, and Greinke don’t fit the mold of starting pitchers that the Mariners would go after.

As much as Mariners fans love the Big Maple, it’s likely that the front office would require a significant salary decrease before an agreement could be made.  There are a handful of names on this list that could fit the mold of a splashy ace to lead this rotation and will be judged on a buy/don’t buy basis – especially at the right price.

Let’s start off with pitchers that I don’t think the Mariners should go for a.k.a. Don’t Buy.

Corey Kluber, Texas Rangers (35 years old) – Don’t Buy for Mariners

Corey Kluber is another intriguing name, especially when you consider that he sat out almost all of 2019 due to injury (right arm fracture due to line drive) and only threw one start in 2020 (shoulder tightness).  The shoulder tightness is worth noting, but he’s a name to keep an eye on.  He’s an older arm, so the signing would likely be 2-3 years at most, but he’s a three-time All-Star and two-time Cy Young winner.

His statistics are all in line with his averages, but his SO/W has declined from his 2011-2018 average of 4.67 to a 2021 value of 2.39.  This is largely due to the increase in walks per nine innings.  It’s hard to know if this is the result of not throwing consistently since 2018, or if it’s indicative of a larger health concern.  He’s had a few starts, so my inclination is to relate his SO/W decline to his age and injuries which makes him someone Jerry Dipoto should stay away from.

Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants (30 years old) – Don’t Buy for Mariners

Kevin Gausman is currently pitching the best he’s ever thrown in his 8-year career.  He’s 7-0 with an ERA of 1.27 and a 2021 WAR of 3.7, and he has experience pitching in the American League (2013-2018 seasons with Baltimore).  His 2021 stats are impressive, but they appear to be more of a statistical outlier when you consider that his career ERA is 4.04.  In fact, his best ERAs are 3.61 in 2016 with Baltimore and 3.62 with the SF Giants.

The issue the Mariners are going to run into is that Gausman’s price will be steep because of the year he’s currently having down in SF.  Considering what will likely be his price point, and the likely regression he will see back to his career average stats, this is likely a Don’t Buy for Seattle.

Marcus Stroman, NY Mets (30 years old) – Strong Buy for Mariners

Marcus Stroman is another pitcher having a good start to the 2021 season (12 starts, 5-4, 2.41 ERA, 1.3 WAR).  It’s difficult to take his winning percentage into account, as Mariners fans can sympathize with when reminiscing about the days of King Felix.  Unlike Gausman, this ERA is not as significant of an abnormality and is a number that he’s reached in the past.  He also spent most of his career in Toronto, so he too has experience in the AL.

It’s worth noting that, although he turned 30 only a few weeks ago, he opted out of the 2020 season and has the arm of a 29-year-old.  This could be a factor in his price, but the Mariners would be smart to target a starting pitcher deemed an All-Star in his last season (2019).  Mariners front office: please go after this guy – he’s a great fit.

Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox (34 years old) – Strong Buy for Mariners

Lance Lynn is likely going to be a popular name among Mariners fans as someone the franchise should target.  He checks every box: playoff success in St. Louis, experience in the AL West with the Rangers, a solid career ERA (3.48), and is likely going to be receptive to a 2-year deal when considering the number of games started (246).

He would also help to balance out our rotation, as three of our active starting pitchers are left-handed.  The primary issue with Lynn’s pitching style is his recent dependence on fly balls, as approximately 10% of what used to be line drives have converted to fly balls in his 2021 campaign.

T-Mobile Park is a cavern in the outfield, so this trend is worth tracking.  The Mariners would likely look to use him for the same role that the White Sox brought him in for in 2021: be a veteran presence, teach the younger arms how to win in August/September, and provide the franchise with its first playoff appearance in decades.  He’s shown he can do it, so I say we go out and get him.  He’ll also likely be cheap enough so we can potentially spend a lot on other free agents. Strong buy.

Once the Mariners get to the 2021 offseason, it will be interesting to see who, if anyone, they go after.