Mariners Prospects: Julio Rodriguez is the next Frank Robinson

Floor player comp for Seattle Mariners Julio Rodriguez: Delmon Young

Delmon Young was on the fast track to being the next big thing for the Tampa Bay Rays. Called up at the age of 20, he was supposed to have strong power, fair defense, and a good bat to go alongside that power. It looked like the skills would play as well, as he finished 2nd in the American League Rookie of the Year voting back in 2007. 13 home runs, 93 RBI, 10 SB, and a .288 BA was quite a line for Young and worthy of the second-place finish.

He never gained a good eye at the plate, with a paltry walk rate of 4.1%, half the league average. After the 2010 season, a breakout seemed on its way after he finished 10th in MVP voting for the Twins. Young would notch his first (and only) 20+ homer season, hitting .298 with 113 RBI.

Young never really improved as his career progressed, turning into a serviceable outfielder, but no more than that. He still hit .283 for his career but managed just 109 homers. Although he played ten total seasons, he would only amass a career WAR of 3.2, in large part to a -9.5 dWAR. What makes it worse is that half of his WAR came in 2010, when he finished the year with a 1.9 WAR.

This should be the realistic floor for Julio Rodriguez. He never gains enough speed to steal more than a handful of bases, is a bit of a liability in the field, and puts together a couple of decent seasons. A ten-year career is nothing to scoff at. For the potential and expectations surrounding him, it would be a disappointment.

Median player comp for Seattle Mariners Julio Rodriguez: Jermaine Dye

I was torn here in trying to figure out who to compare Julio to for his median player comp. There were a handful of guys with some former Mariners falling into this pile of comparable players. With Julio’s strong arm and a power bat, I could’ve gone with either Jay Buhner or Jose Guillen.

Neither of them quite fit what I wanted though. Neither of them started making an impact till later in their careers and in turn, didn’t have the length of career I was looking for. Plus, why not go with someone who didn’t play for the Mariners.

That’s why the median player comp for Julio is Jermaine Dye. He didn’t come up as early as Julio is going to (or Young, for that matter), but he did make his debut at 22, finishing 6th in Rookie of the Year voting. With 12 homers in half a season and a .281 average, you could see the potential for a great hitter.

It would take a couple of seasons for Dye to come into his own after a disappointing stretch in his second and third years. Then, from 1999 to 2008, Dye would hit at least 25 home runs in nine of his ten seasons. His greatest season came at age 32 with the White Sox when he would make his second All-Star game, win his first Silver Slugger, and finish fifth in MVP voting. They were all worthy accomplishments from his line of .315/.385/.622 with 44 home runs, 120 RBI, and 103 runs scored.

If Julio ends up with a career like Dye we should be happy as Mariners fans. 325 home runs, a career .274/.338/.488 slash line and a couple of All-Star appearances. With the way baseball has changed since Dye played, if Julio can provide those numbers, he is likely going to make 5-6 All-Star games instead of the two that Dye made.

Ceiling player comp for Seattle Mariners Julio Rodriguez: Frank Robinson

Whenever you see someone provide a Hall of Fame comp for a prospect, there are usually two thoughts that go through your mind. That person is crazy… or hmmm, I could see that possibility.

With Julio Rodriguez, I honestly think it falls more in the second category. Yeah, it’s quite the comparison to ask to see a career as good as Frank Robinson, but we are looking at a ceiling here. Julio is 20 years old and already ranked as the 5th best prospect in all of baseball.

Taking a look at his toolset, you can see why lofty expectations are placed on Julio. Cannon arm… check. Monster bat… check. Hit tool… check. Oh, and we all know the kid has an incredible personality.

If not for the postponement of last year’s season, it was possible that Julio could’ve had the same start the Frank Robinson did. Making his debut for the Reds in 1956 at the age of 20, Frank would hit 38 home runs, bat .290, lead the league in runs with 122 on his way to winning Rookie of the Year, an All-Star appearance, and finishing 7th in MVP-voting.

The power was there for Robinson, and other than a blip in his 13th and 17th seasons, he would hit for at least 21 home runs in 17 of 19 seasons to start his career. It led to him being one of the greatest power hitters of all time, finishing with 586 home runs over a 21-year career. Oh, he had 528 doubles as well. 10th all-time in homers and 44th in doubles is incredibly impressive.

Check out the averages from the twelve-year stretch that Robinson had to start his career. He would win one Gold Glove, making eight All-Star games, and win two MVP’s to go alongside the Rookie of the year award I already mentioned

.304/.392/.563. 149 games. 34 home runs. 14 steals. 31 doubles. 104 runs. 102 RBI.

You’re going to be hard-pressed to find many players in the history of baseball that had that kind of a stretch for that long to start their career.

Do you know what’s crazy? Julio might be able to put together the modern-day version of that. Batting average has gone down, so if Julio was able to hit that well, he would get into another level of conversation past the Hall of Fame. I’m not ready to go there yet. My main point is that Julio is a special hitter with a rare power/hit combo. Seasons of 35+ homers and an average of around .285 shouldn’t shock you.

They are lofty expectations to place on Julio Rodriguez. It’s a comparison to an icon from the world of baseball who was one of the best hitters the game has ever seen. When it comes to a ceiling for Julio, the Frank Robinson comparison is within reach.