Mariners Prospects: Jarred Kelenic is the next Carlos Beltran

The Seattle Mariners have one of the most exciting farm systems in all of baseball. The group is headed by one of the top five prospects in baseball, Jarred Kelenic.

We all know that he is supposed to be good. Possibly even special. Players who end up at the top of the prospect lists are supposed to be long-time major leaguers. Just how good can Jarred Kelenic be though? It’s a spot that we don’t always think about when looking at prospects. Yeah, we hope that they are good, and good for a long time. What kind of career numbers are they going to put up, though?

Before you start looking at comps, you need to look at the type of player that Kelenic could be. Knocking on wood, but he is sort of everything you want in a center fielder. Good defense, a high average, solid power, and good speed as well. He’s feisty as well, ready to get up into the Show and prove himself.

Well, let’s try and get a better handle on it by looking at some realistic player comps for him, both for ceiling, median, and floor comps. We are tossing out the possibility that he ends up as a bust, because no one wants to think about that, and it just isn’t that fun to write or read about either. What’s a realistic floor to think about, career-wise? If things go decent for him, where could he end up? Finally, if he ends up being everything we want, how good could he actually be?

Floor Player comp for Seattle Mariners Jarred Kelenic: Randy Winn

Randy Winn still had a pretty good career when you look at the length of it and all he accomplished. When you compare it to what people are expecting from Kelenic, it’s fair to see that it could be a realistic floor for the Mariners’ young outfielder.

Winn accumulated seven straight seasons with double-digit home runs and double-digit steals, all the while hitting for an impressive .294 clip. The key difference here is that it took a while for Winn to transform from solely a speedy outfielder, to becoming one that could provide a bit of pop.

Kelenic is likely to showcase power earlier than that and is expected to provide more of it than Winn ever did. He only broke the 15 home run mark once in his career, doing it during the 2005 season which he split between Seattle and San Francisco. If the power just doesn’t translate to playing against major league pitching, Kelenic still has the rest of the tools to stay in the lineup, and make a lengthy career.

Like Winn, you could see him playing into his mid-30’s, sticking around because of an ability to put the ball in play, stealing a good amount of bases, and playing solid defense. Winn had double-digit steals for nine straight years and would’ve for 12 if he played more in his second and third seasons.

Median Player comp for Seattle Mariners Jarred Kelenic: Grady Sizemore

For the first few years of his career, there were not too many players in baseball that were more exciting than Grady Sizemore. After growing up and playing high school ball in Everett, Sizemore was taken in the third round by the Expos. It didn’t take too long before he was called up to the majors either.

His rookie year was 2004, as he was called up at 21. After getting the hang of major league ball his first year, he was thrust into the lineup for his sophomore season, and came out with a bang. He would receive well-earned MVP votes that year, hitting .289/.348/.484 with 22 homers, 22 steals, 37 doubles, and 11 triples. It sounds like quite the year, but would actually be his worst of an incredible four-year stretch.

Over the next three years, Sizemore would average .279/.380/.499, with 28 homers, 31 steals, 42 doubles, and seven triples. Oh, and he won Gold Gloves in both 2007 and 2008 at the ages of 24 and 25, respectively.

After a disappointing age-26 season, Sizemore was essentially done from that point on. He would only reach double digits in homers or steals one more time and saw more than 300 plate appearances just once in four more seasons.

Kelenic seems to have the tools to put together similar seasons to what Sizemore did. Multiple 20/20 years, good average, MVP votes, and some Gold Gloves.