Mariners Prospects: Jarred Kelenic is the next Carlos Beltran

The Seattle Mariners have one of the most exciting farm systems in all of baseball. The group is headed by one of the top five prospects in baseball, Jarred Kelenic.

We all know that he is supposed to be good. Possibly even special. Players who end up at the top of the prospect lists are supposed to be long-time major leaguers. Just how good can Jarred Kelenic be though? It’s a spot that we don’t always think about when looking at prospects. Yeah, we hope that they are good, and good for a long time. What kind of career numbers are they going to put up, though?

Before you start looking at comps, you need to look at the type of player that Kelenic could be. Knocking on wood, but he is sort of everything you want in a center fielder. Good defense, a high average, solid power, and good speed as well. He’s feisty as well, ready to get up into the Show and prove himself.

Well, let’s try and get a better handle on it by looking at some realistic player comps for him, both for ceiling, median, and floor comps. We are tossing out the possibility that he ends up as a bust, because no one wants to think about that, and it just isn’t that fun to write or read about either. What’s a realistic floor to think about, career-wise? If things go decent for him, where could he end up? Finally, if he ends up being everything we want, how good could he actually be?

Median Player comp for Seattle Mariners Jarred Kelenic: Grady Sizemore

For the first few years of his career, there were not too many players in baseball that were more exciting than Grady Sizemore. After growing up and playing high school ball in Everett, Sizemore was taken in the third round by the Expos. It didn’t take too long before he was called up to the majors either.

His rookie year was 2004, as he was called up at 21. After getting the hang of major league ball his first year, he was thrust into the lineup for his sophomore season, and came out with a bang. He would receive well-earned MVP votes that year, hitting .289/.348/.484 with 22 homers, 22 steals, 37 doubles, and 11 triples. It sounds like quite the year, but would actually be his worst of an incredible four-year stretch.

Over the next three years, Sizemore would average .279/.380/.499, with 28 homers, 31 steals, 42 doubles, and seven triples. Oh, and he won Gold Gloves in both 2007 and 2008 at the ages of 24 and 25, respectively.

After a disappointing age-26 season, Sizemore was essentially done from that point on. He would only reach double digits in homers or steals one more time and saw more than 300 plate appearances just once in four more seasons.

Kelenic seems to have the tools to put together similar seasons to what Sizemore did. Multiple 20/20 years, good average, MVP votes, and some Gold Gloves.

Ceiling Player comp for Seattle Mariners Jarred Kelenic: Carlos Beltran

Carlos Beltran? Do you mean that old slow guy who puttered around for nearly a decade that pretty much only had power? Yeah, that guy. The one who started his career with 11 straight seasons of double-digit steals.

Many people forget just how good Beltran was for the first decade of his career before making the adjustment to a power hitter for the latter half of his playing days. From 1999-2009, an 11 season stretch, Beltran averaged .283/.360/.497 with 25 homers, 26 steals, and 30 doubles a season. He won the Rookie of the Year all the way back in 1999 as he kicked off an incredible career in Kansas City.

If we can get the type of career that Beltran had, we are going to have an incredible career and an extremely fun player to watch in center field for years to come. It wasn’t just that Beltran could hit or run, it was that he could do both, all the while still playing good defense. He ended his career with nine All-Star game appearances, three Gold Gloves, and finished with 70.1 WAR. It’s at the edge of being worthy of the Hall of Fame.

Here’s the thing, though. With the dropping league-wide batting average we are seeing, if Kelenic can produce those types of numbers, which definitely seem possible, he is going to be worth even more.

A career like Beltran’s would be a lot of fun. The good defense played primarily in center field, the multi-faceted threat of power, speed, and average all paired with a guy who seems uber-competitive and plays with a bit of a chip on his shoulder. When it comes to player comps and a realistic ceiling, Jarred Kelenic is going to provide a lot of excitement in his career as a Seattle Mariner.