2021 Seattle Mariners fantasy baseball advice recap
Opening Day is right around the corner, and I hope you have drafted your fantasy baseball team already. If not, here is a short recap of all the Mariners fantasy breakdowns we have written this month. Let’s start with the players that with pitchers.
Mariners fantasy advice recap – pitchers
Marco Gonzales
Marco just gets better every year, just like red wine. We recommend drafting Marco once you see pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr., Dylan Bundy, and Patrick Corbin start to come off the board. Marco is a special talent that is still overlooked around the MLB. So, don’t be afraid to take Marco instead of some mainstream names like McCullers Jr. and Corbin. Plus, Marco will have a better team behind him which will help on defense (directly impact Marco’s stats), a better bullpen (more wins), and a better offense (more wins).
James Paxton
The Big Maple is another valuable fantasy baseball asset in the Mariners rotation. But with Paxton, there is always the worry about injuries. Going into the season, he doesn’t have any health issues and looked great in his Spring Training debut which is both green lights. For James, we recommend taking him a little after Marco. Once you see pitchers like Triston McKenzie, and Andrew Heaney starts to come off the board, that’s the time to look for Paxton. If you are worried about Paxton’s ability to bounce back from a bad 2020, keep in mind that it will be the first time Paxton is a part of a six-man rotation (additional rest) and is back in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Justus Sheffield
Justus Sheffield had a fantastic 2020 season as a rookie and his offseason adjustments paid off. Now, can he continue trending in the right direction? Chris says yes. Sheffield is your ideal sleeper pick and would be a great late-round selection to add depth to your staff. Sheff is low in the rankings and you could wait until pitchers like Matthew Boyd and Drew Smyly get selected. If you have worries about Sheff, he is just 24-years-old and was once a highly-touted prospect. He should only get better from here on out.
Chris Flexen
I haven’t been very high on Chris Flexen yet. Obviously, Spring Training is a small sample size and doesn’t always translate to how one will pitch during the season but it’s hard to not make assumptions. Up until yesterday, his Spring stats weren’t all that good. But in yesterday’s game, Flexen bounced back and brought his ERA down to 6.23. Flexen has struck out 14 batters in 13 innings but has allowed nine runs and two home runs. It’s a very mixed bag. That being said, I don’t think anyone plans on drafting Flexen and neither should you. Let him go undrafted and keep an eye on him during the season.
Yusei Kikuchi
Analytical baseball fans love Kikuchi, and for good reason. His advanced statistics made a big leap from 2019 to 2020 and it seems like he’s continuing to improve based on Spring Training numbers. Kikuchi has a 3.24 ERA in three starts and has struck out nine batters in 8.1 innings. Walks remain an issue for him but I think he’s worth gambling on this year for fantasy baseball. Andrew Simon even thinks that Kikuchi is a darkhorse candidate to win the Cy Young this season. We recommend drafting Kikuchi pretty late in the draft, probably in the same area as Justus Sheffield. Once you see names like Taijuan Walker and Mike Minor get selected, you should take a look at Kikuchi but you don’t need to take action immediately. There should be a few betters options around that time.
Justin Dunn
I am a huge fan of Justin Dunn’s changes this offseason. Control and consistency seem to still be an issue for the young pitcher but I think it’s worth the gamble. First things first, we still don’t know if Justin Dunn will be the sixth starting pitcher or not, so there is a risk. Additionally, Logan Gilbert is expected to debut this year which makes Dunn’s situation even more complicated. But, I think it makes sense to take Justin Dunn with your last pick in the draft because I don’t think anyone will take him. That being said, you could also just hit free agency and monitor him.
Nick Margevicius
You might have the temptation to draft Nick Margevicius but you shouldn’t. He has been even better than Justin Dunn in Spring Training, but I don’t think he’s going to be the sixth starting pitcher. Not only do we have so many left-handed pitchers in the rotation already, I think Dunn has a higher ceiling based on the changes he made. Still, I have a lot of respect for Nick and I think he would be utilized in the bullpen this season, which means he practically has no fantasy value. But you never know, Dunn has three minor league options while Nick has two more left. Maybe Marge will be the sixth starting pitcher, we will have to see.
Logan Gilbert
You won’t see Logan Gilbert until later in the season, so you shouldn’t draft the Mariners prospect. But, you need to keep an eye on the news so you can pick him up off free agency as soon as he is called up. Gilbert is a highly-touted prospect so even non-Mariners fans will be eager to pick him up once he is called up. I also don’t think Gilbert is as valuable as a player like Jarred Kelenic and isn’t worth stashing on your bench until he gets called up. However, if you are in a dynasty or keeper league, Gilbert should be drafted in the late rounds.
Rafael Montero
Montero only has value if he is named the Mariners closer. There is a bit of risk with Montero because we still don’t know what the Mariners will do in the ninth inning. It could be a committee, it could be Montero, it could be someone else. The former Rangers closer hasn’t had the greatest Spring Training which makes me a little worried because some other relievers have been amazing. So, I wouldn’t count on Montero as you would normally. I would much rather have closers who have a guaranteed job like Ryan Pressly and Trevor Rosenthal. But, once the closers become thin, Montero is a good pick.
Now, onto fantasy advice for Mariners infielders.
Mariners fantasy advice recap – infielders
Tom Murphy
We recommend passing on Tom Murphy. The Mariners catcher has had a slow Spring Training and currently owns a .212 batting average against subpar pitchers. Not only has he struggled in Arizona, but I am also a little worried about his playtime this season. I am almost 100% certain that Murphy will be the Opening Day starter, but Luis Torrens has been getting rave reviews from the staff. I wouldn’t be surprised if Torrens and Murphy split a good amount of the games. Additionally, Cal Raleigh may be a September call up which takes away even more time from Murphy. I think there are other catchers you should draft in the league.
Evan White
I wouldn’t recommend drafting the Gold Glove first baseman unless you had to, or you are a huge Evan White hopeful. He had a bad offensive season last year in terms of fantasy baseball. His advanced metrics give fans a reason to be hopeful but those numbers don’t mean anything for fantasy baseball. Evan hasn’t also had a great Spring Training either. He’s hit two big home runs and leads the team in RBI but his batting average is below .200. He has made improvements with his plate discipline though. He has only struck out nine-time in 40 at-bats compared to Jake Fraley’s 14 strikeouts in 35 at-bats. So, if you want to take a gamble on Evan White, it’s not a bad idea. But he shouldn’t be your starting first baseman in your lineup.
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Dylan Moore
D-Moore is one of the more valuable Mariners players in fantasy baseball this season. A big reason for that is his position eligibility. It may differ based on what platform you are using, but D-Moore is a 2B, 3B, SS, and OF on Fantasy Pros. We recommend drafting Moore once Max Kepler, Tommy Edman, and Ian Happ get selected in the draft. I personally think D-Moore could be drafted before these guys, but I don’t think many are aware of how good Dylan was in 2020, so you should be able to wait a bit.
J.P. Crawford
If fantasy baseball incorporated a player’s WAR, Crawford would be an excellent pick. Unfortunately, fantasy baseball-only looks at the basic offensive stats (as far as I know) which makes Crawford a below-average fantasy asset. There is too much depth at shortstop around the league and Crawford should be left on the waiver wire unless he proves us wrong. He did have a decent 2020 season offensively which is great to see, but he doesn’t provide too much support. The only category where I see Crawford having an impact is OBP and SB. Both are important, but I am not sure if it’s enough for a spot on your team.
Kyle Seager
The Mariners third baseman is the model of consistency and belongs on a fantasy baseball team again this year. He had a solid 2020 offensive season and although his ceiling may be low, Seager would still be a great third baseman for your team. You wouldn’t want Kyle Seager to be your best offensive player, but he would be a solid middle-round pick. Once you see Ke’Bryan Hayes, Alec Bohm, and Kris Bryant get selected, that’s a good time to pick Seager if you don’t have a star third baseman already.
Ty France
If you have been watching Mariners Spring Training, you know the answer. France should be at the top of your list of sleepers this year. France is still ranked very low despite his amazing Spring. That being said, I think many people will pass on France until the late rounds, which gives you a great opportunity to have the steal of the century. But, if there are a lot of Mariners fans in your league, you might not have that luxury. Honestly, I would consider Ty France a middle-round draft pick just like Kyle Seager. Just don’t wait too long on France, who I think could be an All-Star this year.
Last but not least, let’s talk about Mariners outfielders.
Mariners fantasy advice recap – outfielders
Jarred Kelenic
Yes, you should draft Jarred Kelenic. But, I still don’t have a clear answer for when you should draft him. At the minimum, he should be drafted in the last five rounds of your draft if he starts the season in the minor leagues. Kelenic is too good of a prospect to let sit around in free agency because it gives every fantasy owner an equal chance of picking him up. Don’t let that happen. Draft him so you don’t have to worry about losing out on him. But, if we find out that Kelenic will be on the Opening Day roster in the next few days, Kelenic should be a middle-round pick. I would probably draft him in a similar area as Marco Gonzales, so in the 150-175 rank area.
Jake Fraley
Fraley has struggled in Spring Training and doesn’t belong on your fantasy team. He has had a great minor league career, but he just hasn’t been able to figure out big-league pitching yet. I hope Jake Fraley can become a viable fantasy player, but we might have to wait a couple more years.
Mitch Haniger
Mitch was once called the best player on the team, and I think that is still true. Haniger is having a great Spring Training and is hitting .297 with three home runs and a 1.030 OPS. The outfielder had to take the tough road back to the field and looks 100% for the season. Since he has missed so much time, he is ranked relatively low and will probably be overlooked. This is great news for you because you could get a player like Mitch Haniger in the late rounds when Austin Riley and David Peralta get drafted. I would be a little hesitant to wait that long just because I think Mitch will have an incredible season, but it gives you an idea of how he is viewed. Don’t miss out on Mitch!
Kyle Lewis
Like Haniger, Kyle Lewis is another player you probably don’t want to miss out on. I regretted not drafting Kyle Lewis last year, so don’t make the same mistake as me. Unlike last year, Kyle will be gone a lot earlier than last season. Based on where he is ranked, you should be looking to draft the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year when outfielders like Dominic Smith, Ramon Laureano, Joey Gallo, and Jorge Soler come off the draft board. Personally, I will take Lewis over most of the players I just listed above, but that is the general area.
Taylor Trammell
Last but not least, we have Mariners outfield prospect Taylor Trammell. Similar to Jarred Kelenic, it really depends on whether he is on the Opening Day roster or not. At the moment, he still has a chance to be the starting left fielder. If the speedy outfielder is sent to the minor leagues, you should not draft him. Trammell isn’t on the same level as Jarred Kelenic so it isn’t worth stashing him on your bench until he gets called up. However, if Taylor is the starting left fielder you should draft him with one of your last five picks of the draft.
We hope our last-minute recap of all the players we covered was helpful and wish you a successful 2021 fantasy baseball season.