Seattle Mariners and their chase of the Dodgers ROY record

Many out there are too young to know or even remember, but the Los Angeles Dodgers won an incredible five straight Rookie of the Year awards from 1992-1996. The Seattle Mariners could look to match that number, and it isn’t that ridiculous to believe.

Yes, the Mariners only have the start of it right now, with Kyle Lewis taking home the award for the 2020 shortened season. They also have an insanely strong farm system, arguably the strongest it has been, which makes them strong candidates to take home the award in the years to come.

This isn’t just about listing who I think is going to win the award for the Mariners over the next four years. I want to go a bit deeper.

Let’s take a look at who won the corresponding award for the Dodgers, and compare the Mariner that I think is going to win the award that year. For example, Kyle Lewis won the first one for the M’s, so we would compare him to Eric Karros. What would it take for them to not just win the ROY, but what would they need to accomplish in order to pass their Dodgers counterpart?

Also, it should be noted that the LAD are the gold standard for winning Rookie of the Year. During a conversation about this topic with a friend of mine, I had in my head that they won four straight. It’s because they did… from 1979-1982. Over an 18 year period, they took home half of the ROY Awards. Props to Rick Sutcliffe, Steve Howe, Fernando Valenzuela, and Steve Sax, but that’s not the streak of winners we are going to be looking at today.

We start off by looking at the most recent winner of the award in the American League, Lewis, and his Dodgers counterpart, Karros. To note, all WAR references and stats come from the fine folks over at Baseball-Reference.

Kyle Lewis and Eric Karros

Kyle Lewis: 25 years old, already has ROY, .264/.347/.477 (projected to 31 HR, 14 SB, 8 2B, 78 RBI, 103 R, 198 K)

Eric Karros: 14 years, One Silver Slugger, .268/.325/.454, 324 2B, 284 HR, 1027 RBI, 11.8 oWAR, -11.2 dWAR, 10.4 WAR

There’s a popular trope when looking at a retired player and asking… too soon, just right, too late? Or, to put it simpler, was their skill set best utilized when they played, or could they have benefited more from a different period of time?

With Eric Karros, he was just right. He played just before analytics started coming into play, and there wasn’t much thought into defense other than “oh, he had 11 errors in 1997”. Any later, and he likely would’ve moved to the AL to be a DH. oWAR and dWAR can’t just be added up though, as they aren’t weighted equally, as Karros finished with a total WAR of 10.4.

For Lewis to better what Karros was able to accomplish, he doesn’t need to do much, at least if we are going off of WAR comparisons (for the backbone of the article is the measuring stick). A lot of these Dodgers players weren’t as good as we remember, in large part to the success that the team had as a whole.

Lewis has a 2.0 WAR, and he hasn’t even played a full season. If he can continue to grow, seeing him put together seasons in the .270’s, with a decent eye, homers around the ’20s, a bit of speed, and better defense once he moves out of centerfield and into leftfield, Lewis projects to provide 2.0-3.0 WAR per year.

Say we get ten seasons around that rate (trying to stay level-headed, and not talk about their ceilings), he would end up in the high 20’s for WAR. To compare, that would mean he had the same type of impact as Justin Turner (29.5), Asdrubal Cabrera (29.1), or Matt Carpenter (28.3). Each of those guys played over ten years, and are currently 35, 34, and 34, respectively.

Can Lewis be better than Karros? Yes, definitely, and I think he does just that, buy a solid margin. We will also end each of these comparisons with a reasonable ceiling… and I give his comparison as Andrew McCutchen, who has amassed a 44.6 WAR over 12 years.

Jarred Kelenic and Mike Piazza

Jarred Kelenic: Projected Rookie Stats: .288/.361/.556, 25 HR, 22 SB, 84 RBI, 80 R

Mike Piazza: 16 years, 10 Silver Sluggers, 12-time All-Star, .308/.377/.545, 344 2b, 427 HR, 1335 RBI, 1048 Runs, 17 SB, 66.4 oWAR, 1.5 dWAR, 59.6 WAR (125th all-time, 5th among catchers)

Good luck on passing Piazza. If Jarred Kelenic is able to, then we have a Hall of Famer on our hands. He likely won’t pass Piazza’s stats during his first five full seasons as a Dodger. Check this average season stat line out.

.337/.401/.583, 21 2B, 33 HR, 105 RBI, ROY, five Silver Sluggers, and top ten MVP in each season.

His rookie year? .318/.370/.561, 35 HR, 112 RBI, 81 R, All-Star, and Silver Slugger. 7.0 WAR

It’s almost unheard of to see someone put up numbers like that to start their career. Especially as a catcher. Going into this, we all knew that this was going to be the hardest guy to beat. Luckily, it looks like we are putting our top prospect up against him.

What kind of numbers would Jarred Kelenic need to put up, not just as a rookie, but overall to beat Piazza? By WAR, Piazza put together an all-time rookie season. Aaron Judge (7.9), Mike Trout (10.5!!!), and Ichiro Suzuki (7.7) are the only ones to better that WAR number since Piazza in 1993, in either league.

Jarred Kelenic would need to play above-average defense, and approach a .300 30/30 statline to get into the range. Judge hit about .280 with over 50 homers, leading the league in runs. Trout led the league in runs (129) and steals (49) while hitting .326 with 30 homers. Ichiro led the league at .350, with 56 steals and 242 hits.

The more realistic option is having a long and consistent career to get past Piazza. This is where he could actually pass Piazza’s WAR of 59.6. Could we see a career like Gary Sheffield? A mix of power and steals, with a good average to boot? If the speed is real, it’s not hard to imagine a lot of borderline 20-20 seasons, with an average in the higher 200s. Again, this would project Jarred Kelenic on a Hall of Fame path; the tools and athleticism are there.

20/20, .275/.340/.510, 80 R, 80 RBI, and slightly above-average defense. Doing that for a lengthy career, somewhere around 13-15 years, would get him past Piazza. Possible? Yes. Likely… I don’t think so. Then again, Kelenic might be up before we know it, meaning he only needs to play into his mid-’30s instead of late-’30s. I’d say only a 15% chance Jarred Kelenic passes Piazza.

Emerson Hancock and Raul Mondesi

Emerson Hancock: 21-year-old RHP. 31st ranked prospect in baseball.

Raul Mondesi: 13 years, One-time All-Star, Two Gold Gloves, .273/.331.485, 319 2B, 271 HR, 860 RBI, 909 Runs, 229 SB, oWAR 28.1, dWAR -3.4, WAR 29.5.

You start to see a theme when looking through baseball players from the ’90s. There were a lot of players who were valued for their offense as compared to their defense. If a guy could hit and throw, teams were going to value him. The media was too, and I think that is what happened with Raul Mondesi.

Don’t get me wrong, he still had a great career and the arm strength is what people saw, highlighted by 16 assists in 1995. But, that negative WAR stands out.

Emerson Hancock should have a good chance to earn ROY in 2022. Unless that is, the Mariners pull him up too early and he loses eligibility. Or, he loses it to his more-highly rated teammates like Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby, or Logan Gilbert.

If he makes it in 2022, as all indicators point to, he is going to have a full season of pitching to show what he can do. It’s going to be interesting to see how he performs in 2021, as it is going to be his first taste of pro ball. With just four starts in 2020 in college, it’s a bit better to look at his 2019 numbers, when he DOMINATED! 8-3 with a 1.99 ERA, an 0.841 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9.

Of course, I don’t expect him to do that in the majors. If he did, that would be Pedro-esque. High strikeouts and low walk rates are a great combo for a pitcher. After all, there is a reason that he is one of the best pitching prospects.

What about a solid pitcher comp so we can get an understanding of what to expect from Hancock, and predict from a ~30 WAR career. How about…

Jose Quintana. Just nine years so far, and a WAR of 25.7. A couple more seasons in the majors and he will equal or pass Mondesi. Could Hancock get there?

200 IP, 1.2 WHIP, 3.50 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9… gives you a WAR of around 4.0. This seems reasonable for Hancock, based on his college numbers, what could be a great and young defense behind him, and a park more suited to pitchers. I’d put the chances as pretty high that we see Hancock put up a better career than Mondesi. His ceiling could even be something in the range of Jon Lester’s 45.0 WAR.

Staling Aguilar and Todd Hollandsworth

Starlin Aguilar: Recent International signee for Mariners from 2021 signings. Third Baseman, 16 years old.

Todd Hollandsworth: 12 years, .273/.328/.439, 192 2B, 98 HR, 401 RBI, 451 Runs, 75 SB, oWAR 7.0, dWAR -3.5, WAR 6.5

Why not. Let’s go with the Mariner’s top signee from the most recent round of International players that signed.

It can be hard to predict that far out. Especially when you are taking a look at the expected major league debuts for a bunch of the prospects… and none of them happen later than 2023.

Why not go with Aguilar a.k.a. Baby Devers. The Mariners may find a new third baseman by then, but it’s entirely possible that they won’t. Maybe they keep Seager throughout the rest of his contract, he re-signs for and then rides off into the sunset. A guy can dream, right?

When it comes to “defeating” Hollandsworth, it shouldn’t be that tough for Aguilar to have a better career. Here’s a list of some players you might be familiar with that have amassed a career WAR near 6.5 so far.

Dustin Ackley – 7.7

Hector Neris – 6.4

Mike Zunino – 7.1 as a Mariner

David Bell – 5.9 as a Mariner

You’re telling me that the top international prospect that the M’s just signed can’t be better than any of them?

Do you know who else has a career WAR of about 6.5? The guy that Aguilar is compared to, Rafael Devers. He sits at 6.3 currently. Only 23, that number is sure to grow. It would be fantastic to see Aguilar turn into Devers though.

Here’s a question I want to ask, and I want you to be honest. Would you be happy if Aguilar turned in a level of production similar to Kyle Seager? 33.4 WAR currently, and that ranks him 62nd all-time among third baseman. Another decent season of 3.0 WAR and he gets into the top 50. I know we all want HOFers, but getting a repeat of Seager production starting in 2024 and lasting till 2033? I would definitely be fine with that.

Do the Mariners have any chance at catching the Dodger’s incredible run of five straight Rookie of the Year awards? Time will tell, but I like their chances. For the first time in a while, the future is looking bright in Seattle thanks to their loaded farm system and we might see Jarred Kelenic and others soon.