Seattle Mariners and their chase of the Dodgers ROY record

Many out there are too young to know or even remember, but the Los Angeles Dodgers won an incredible five straight Rookie of the Year awards from 1992-1996. The Seattle Mariners could look to match that number, and it isn’t that ridiculous to believe.

Yes, the Mariners only have the start of it right now, with Kyle Lewis taking home the award for the 2020 shortened season. They also have an insanely strong farm system, arguably the strongest it has been, which makes them strong candidates to take home the award in the years to come.

This isn’t just about listing who I think is going to win the award for the Mariners over the next four years. I want to go a bit deeper.

Let’s take a look at who won the corresponding award for the Dodgers, and compare the Mariner that I think is going to win the award that year. For example, Kyle Lewis won the first one for the M’s, so we would compare him to Eric Karros. What would it take for them to not just win the ROY, but what would they need to accomplish in order to pass their Dodgers counterpart?

Also, it should be noted that the LAD are the gold standard for winning Rookie of the Year. During a conversation about this topic with a friend of mine, I had in my head that they won four straight. It’s because they did… from 1979-1982. Over an 18 year period, they took home half of the ROY Awards. Props to Rick Sutcliffe, Steve Howe, Fernando Valenzuela, and Steve Sax, but that’s not the streak of winners we are going to be looking at today.

We start off by looking at the most recent winner of the award in the American League, Lewis, and his Dodgers counterpart, Karros. To note, all WAR references and stats come from the fine folks over at Baseball-Reference.

Jarred Kelenic and Mike Piazza

Jarred Kelenic: Projected Rookie Stats: .288/.361/.556, 25 HR, 22 SB, 84 RBI, 80 R

Mike Piazza: 16 years, 10 Silver Sluggers, 12-time All-Star, .308/.377/.545, 344 2b, 427 HR, 1335 RBI, 1048 Runs, 17 SB, 66.4 oWAR, 1.5 dWAR, 59.6 WAR (125th all-time, 5th among catchers)

Good luck on passing Piazza. If Jarred Kelenic is able to, then we have a Hall of Famer on our hands. He likely won’t pass Piazza’s stats during his first five full seasons as a Dodger. Check this average season stat line out.

.337/.401/.583, 21 2B, 33 HR, 105 RBI, ROY, five Silver Sluggers, and top ten MVP in each season.

His rookie year? .318/.370/.561, 35 HR, 112 RBI, 81 R, All-Star, and Silver Slugger. 7.0 WAR

It’s almost unheard of to see someone put up numbers like that to start their career. Especially as a catcher. Going into this, we all knew that this was going to be the hardest guy to beat. Luckily, it looks like we are putting our top prospect up against him.

What kind of numbers would Jarred Kelenic need to put up, not just as a rookie, but overall to beat Piazza? By WAR, Piazza put together an all-time rookie season. Aaron Judge (7.9), Mike Trout (10.5!!!), and Ichiro Suzuki (7.7) are the only ones to better that WAR number since Piazza in 1993, in either league.

Jarred Kelenic would need to play above-average defense, and approach a .300 30/30 statline to get into the range. Judge hit about .280 with over 50 homers, leading the league in runs. Trout led the league in runs (129) and steals (49) while hitting .326 with 30 homers. Ichiro led the league at .350, with 56 steals and 242 hits.

The more realistic option is having a long and consistent career to get past Piazza. This is where he could actually pass Piazza’s WAR of 59.6. Could we see a career like Gary Sheffield? A mix of power and steals, with a good average to boot? If the speed is real, it’s not hard to imagine a lot of borderline 20-20 seasons, with an average in the higher 200s. Again, this would project Jarred Kelenic on a Hall of Fame path; the tools and athleticism are there.

20/20, .275/.340/.510, 80 R, 80 RBI, and slightly above-average defense. Doing that for a lengthy career, somewhere around 13-15 years, would get him past Piazza. Possible? Yes. Likely… I don’t think so. Then again, Kelenic might be up before we know it, meaning he only needs to play into his mid-’30s instead of late-’30s. I’d say only a 15% chance Jarred Kelenic passes Piazza.

Emerson Hancock and Raul Mondesi

Emerson Hancock: 21-year-old RHP. 31st ranked prospect in baseball.

Raul Mondesi: 13 years, One-time All-Star, Two Gold Gloves, .273/.331.485, 319 2B, 271 HR, 860 RBI, 909 Runs, 229 SB, oWAR 28.1, dWAR -3.4, WAR 29.5.

You start to see a theme when looking through baseball players from the ’90s. There were a lot of players who were valued for their offense as compared to their defense. If a guy could hit and throw, teams were going to value him. The media was too, and I think that is what happened with Raul Mondesi.

Don’t get me wrong, he still had a great career and the arm strength is what people saw, highlighted by 16 assists in 1995. But, that negative WAR stands out.

Emerson Hancock should have a good chance to earn ROY in 2022. Unless that is, the Mariners pull him up too early and he loses eligibility. Or, he loses it to his more-highly rated teammates like Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby, or Logan Gilbert.

If he makes it in 2022, as all indicators point to, he is going to have a full season of pitching to show what he can do. It’s going to be interesting to see how he performs in 2021, as it is going to be his first taste of pro ball. With just four starts in 2020 in college, it’s a bit better to look at his 2019 numbers, when he DOMINATED! 8-3 with a 1.99 ERA, an 0.841 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9.

Of course, I don’t expect him to do that in the majors. If he did, that would be Pedro-esque. High strikeouts and low walk rates are a great combo for a pitcher. After all, there is a reason that he is one of the best pitching prospects.

What about a solid pitcher comp so we can get an understanding of what to expect from Hancock, and predict from a ~30 WAR career. How about…

Jose Quintana. Just nine years so far, and a WAR of 25.7. A couple more seasons in the majors and he will equal or pass Mondesi. Could Hancock get there?

200 IP, 1.2 WHIP, 3.50 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9… gives you a WAR of around 4.0. This seems reasonable for Hancock, based on his college numbers, what could be a great and young defense behind him, and a park more suited to pitchers. I’d put the chances as pretty high that we see Hancock put up a better career than Mondesi. His ceiling could even be something in the range of Jon Lester’s 45.0 WAR.

Noelvi Marte and Hideo Nomo

Noelvi Marte: 19-year-old shortstop. Just outside the top 100, likely at 101 in MLB.com prospect rankings for 2021.

Hideo Nomo: 12 years, One-time All-Star, Finished fourth in Cy Young voting twice, 1976.1 Innings, 1918 K’s, 4.24 ERA, 4.23 FIP, 1.354 WHIP, 21.8 WAR

Nomo burst onto the scene in 1995, not just winning ROY, but also making the All-Star game and finishing 4th in Cy Young voting. No argument there, as Greg Maddux put together one of the best seasons you will ever see from a player in 1995.

Nomo followed it up with an equally valuable second season, posting 4.7 WAR in each of them, as well as 4th in Cy Young voting once again. That would make up about half of his career total. He still put together a solid career, but the numbers are a bit skewed from those first two seasons.

Marte is an incredibly exciting young player in the Mariners organization and has slowly been climbing the prospect ladder. Many thought that he was going to break into the top 100 this year, but both the Mariners and MLB shortstop prospects are packed with top prospects.

He was a top ten international prospect when he signed in 2018, and the Mariners dished out over $1.5 million to the then 17-year-old. Between 50-60 everywhere for his tools, Marte has an impressive toolset. Good power and the ability to be a plus-runner leads to a comparison of, and I’ll say this quietly… Hanley Ramirez.

Don’t forget, Marlins Hanley was one of the most feared players in baseball. Over a five-year stretch, he averaged .313/.385/.521, with 40 doubles, 25 HR, 39 SB, 112 R, and 78 RBI. You can hope for numbers like that, but it isn’t realistic.

Instead, I think we should compare him more to Jason Kipnis. Early Kipnis, that is. During his first six years, he averaged .272/.345/.423, with 13 HR, 19 SB, 29 2B, 72 R, and 59 RBI. Kipnis wasn’t a great defender, you could argue he wasn’t even a good one, but the offensive numbers would be ones to be happy with.

Here’s the prediction for Marte. He puts together similar numbers to those by Kipnis, but for around 10-12 years instead of six. He plays slightly above-average defense during that time, possibly moving around the infield a bit depending on who the team has around him. He ends up having a career very similar to Edgar Renteria, who finished with a career 32.4 WAR during his 16-year career.

Staling Aguilar and Todd Hollandsworth

Starlin Aguilar: Recent International signee for Mariners from 2021 signings. Third Baseman, 16 years old.

Todd Hollandsworth: 12 years, .273/.328/.439, 192 2B, 98 HR, 401 RBI, 451 Runs, 75 SB, oWAR 7.0, dWAR -3.5, WAR 6.5

Why not. Let’s go with the Mariner’s top signee from the most recent round of International players that signed.

It can be hard to predict that far out. Especially when you are taking a look at the expected major league debuts for a bunch of the prospects… and none of them happen later than 2023.

Why not go with Aguilar a.k.a. Baby Devers. The Mariners may find a new third baseman by then, but it’s entirely possible that they won’t. Maybe they keep Seager throughout the rest of his contract, he re-signs for and then rides off into the sunset. A guy can dream, right?

When it comes to “defeating” Hollandsworth, it shouldn’t be that tough for Aguilar to have a better career. Here’s a list of some players you might be familiar with that have amassed a career WAR near 6.5 so far.

Dustin Ackley – 7.7

Hector Neris – 6.4

Mike Zunino – 7.1 as a Mariner

David Bell – 5.9 as a Mariner

You’re telling me that the top international prospect that the M’s just signed can’t be better than any of them?

Do you know who else has a career WAR of about 6.5? The guy that Aguilar is compared to, Rafael Devers. He sits at 6.3 currently. Only 23, that number is sure to grow. It would be fantastic to see Aguilar turn into Devers though.

Here’s a question I want to ask, and I want you to be honest. Would you be happy if Aguilar turned in a level of production similar to Kyle Seager? 33.4 WAR currently, and that ranks him 62nd all-time among third baseman. Another decent season of 3.0 WAR and he gets into the top 50. I know we all want HOFers, but getting a repeat of Seager production starting in 2024 and lasting till 2033? I would definitely be fine with that.

Do the Mariners have any chance at catching the Dodger’s incredible run of five straight Rookie of the Year awards? Time will tell, but I like their chances. For the first time in a while, the future is looking bright in Seattle thanks to their loaded farm system and we might see Jarred Kelenic and others soon.