5 bold predictions for the Mariners in the 2021 season

Following a 27-33 2020 season with a third-place finish in the AL West, The Mariners look to take advantage of a wide-open division battle. With the Rangers in the first stages of a rebuild, the Angels still being the Angels, the A’s losing multiple key contributors to free agency, and the Springer and Verlander-less Astros, the Mariners have more of a shot at the division than they have in years.

So, here are 5 bold predictions for the Mariners in the 2021 season. Some would help the team this year, and some are more geared towards the future. Regardless, I would not be surprised if any, or even all of these happened.

Mariners win back to back Rookie of the Year’s, but it’s not Kelenic

The Mariners’ top prospect Jarred Kelenic will debut at some point this season (barring injury), but so will their most MLB ready pitching prospect Logan Gilbert. While Kelenic has been in the headlines this offseason, Gilbert will be the one stealing the headlines during the season and my first bold prediction is that he wins the 2021 AL Rookie of the Year.

This would mean Seattle goes back to back, as Kyle Lewis won the award last season. This prediction comes partially from the fact that Gilbert looked excellent in his lone start this spring, striking out David Fletcher and Mike Trout, while Kelenic may miss the rest of Spring Training due to suffering a knee injury.

Jerry Dipoto was also recently asked who he thinks the most MLB-ready player is from the Mariners’ top prospects, and surprisingly he said Gilbert, not Kelenic. Gilbert has some insane minor league statistics like a 2.13 ERA in 26 games started in the minors, and after he spends some time at the alternate training site and maybe AAA, he will be called up and could be the best rookie pitcher.

Mariners lead the league in stolen bases, Moore finishes top 3 in the league

Seattle went crazy on the basepaths last season finishing 3rd in the league in steals with 50 while finishing 26th in OBP. This means that when the Mariners got on base, manager Scott Servais was sending his guys much more than the league average.

It also is clear that Servais wants to keep that going in 2021, if not more. Servais said recently that the Mariners are going to be very active on the basepaths due to some advanced analytical findings and their base-stealing talent. Because of this, I see the Mariners trying to take advantage of their likely scarce on-base opportunities and leading the league in steals.

Their leader last season, Dylan Moore, had 12 in just 38 games played. The math on that pace is that if he got on base and stole like he did last year, he would have around 45 stolen bases. As his hitting statistics from last year will likely regress, I could see Moore having 40 stolen bases which would most likely put him in the top 3 in the American League for steals.

Also, what’s interesting about Seattle’s stolen base numbers from last season is that Dee Strange-Gordon and Mallex Smith only combined for 5 stolen bases so their departures will not actually affect their numbers as much as some might think.

Cal Raleigh is the Mariners starting catcher by August

Cal Raleigh has looked great in Spring Traning so far and had a great Instructional League. All signs currently point towards Raliegh making his debut in 2021 as he’s the third-string catcher and looks MLB ready. If either Tom Murphy or Luis Torrens get injured then Raleigh will be the next man up.

So chances are in the first few months of the season either Murphy or Torrens will have to be sent down due to poor performance or will end up on the injured list. This opens the door for Raleigh to be called up and I see his impressive stats from the minors, Instructional League, and Spring Training carrying over.

Then after just a few weeks in the bigs, Raleigh will be the everyday starting catcher as the Mariners continue to commit to the youth movement. As is the case with many things that we wonder about the team, former team president Kevin Mather did say that Cal Raleigh is the future for Seattle at the catcher spot. So, if he’s right then the Mariners will want to make Raleigh their starting catcher at the first chance they get.

Mitch Haniger returns to 2018 Mitch Haniger form but gets traded

In a recent sit down with the press, General Manager Jerry Dipoto said that Mitch Haniger is the Mariners best offensive player when he is healthy, and so far this Spring Haniger has looked perfectly healthy. The last full season that Haniger played was 2018 and he was fantastic, hitting a line of .285/.366/.493 with an .859 OPS, 26 home runs, a 6.2 WAR, and receiving his only All-Star Game selection.

With Haniger fully healthy, I see him replicating his 2018 season or getting close to it statically. However, this means that with every other general manager, knowing that the Mariners are committed to the youth movement and the 30-year-old Haniger hitting free agency in 2022, will come calling if they are competing and interested in an All-Star caliber right fielder.

The Mariners could also have a bidding war and receive some hefty offers that are too good to pass up, and the player that at one time looked like the young future of the franchise and seemed like the only player jersey you could get at the team store for about two years will be out the door.