FanSided

3 major implications the James Paxton signing has on the Mariners rotation

By Willie Keeler |
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 29: Starter James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners delivers a pitch (Sodo Mojo All-Star). (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 29: Starter James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners delivers a pitch (Sodo Mojo All-Star). (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
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The Seattle Mariners have brought back the fan-favorite lefty James Paxton. The Big Maple has been signed for a reported $8.5 million with incentives of $750,000 for making 10 starts and another $750,000 for making 20 starts.

The signing of Paxton obviously helps the rotation and satisfies a need that the Mariners had for a top half of the rotation starter. But, it also has three major implications for Seattle’s rotation asks some questions that will have to be answered before and during the season.

Implication #1: Mariners have a very lefty-heavy rotation

James Paxton‘s addition to the 6 man rotation means that the Mariners will probably have 4 lefties in the rotation and could even have 5. The other lefties are Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield, and Yusei Kikuchi, and the potential 5th lefty starter would be Nick Margevicius.

That leaves Chris Flexen as the only righty that will 100% be in the rotation and the righty Justin Dunn will be competing with the lefty Nick Margevicius in spring training and throughout the season.

This is also the most lefties in a rotation in the league, as no one else has 4 lefties in their rotation, and Kansas City, Toronto, and the Dodgers all have 3 according to Fangraphs depth chart projections.

However, there could be a method to Jerry Dipoto’s madness as this is how the AL West teams ranked in 2020 for OPS vs left-handed pitching: Rangers 28th, A’s 23rd, Astros 22nd, Angels 15th. So only one of the teams in the AL West ranked in the top half for OPS vs lefties and they were 15th.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – SEPTEMBER 21: Justin Dunn #35 of the Seattle Mariners looks on after the bottom of the eighth inning against the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park on September 21, 2020 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – SEPTEMBER 21: Justin Dunn #35 of the Seattle Mariners looks on after the bottom of the eighth inning against the Houston Astros at T-Mobile Park on September 21, 2020 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

There is now only one spot open in the rotation

Jerry Dipoto said that there are 4 pitchers who will undoubtedly be in the Mariners rotation: Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield, Yusei Kikuchi, and Chris Flexen. Now with the addition of James Paxton the 6 man rotation now only has 1 spot open for someone to claim.

The main competition will be between Justin Dunn and Nick Margevicius with Ljay Newsome having a small chance to sneak into the 6th spot. Dipoto also said that the most MLB-ready prospect of the group of Seattle’s top prospects is Logan Gilbert, and while we would assume that Gilbert won’t start the year in the majors so that Seattle has another year of team control, he could take that final spot just a few months into the season.

While it seems unlikely, there is also the possibility that another starter is signed. What I would not be surprised by is if the Mariners signed someone on a minor league deal, like Julio Teheran for example, who would also compete for that final spot.

I would assume that he is safe, but Paxton’s signing could also mean that Nick Margevicius is DFA’d in favor of Justin Dunn and Ljay Newsome competing for the 6th spot to start the season with Logan Gilbert taking the spot during the season.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – JULY 18: Logan Gilbert of the Seattle Mariners watches an intrasquad game. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – JULY 18: Logan Gilbert of the Seattle Mariners watches an intrasquad game. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

Every starter will be on a shorter leash

As I just mentioned, Jerry Dipoto said recently in a Q&A session with the media and fans that of the group of top prospects that the Mariners have, Logan Gilbert is the most MLB-ready. Yes, that means Jerry believes he is more MLB-ready than Jarred Kelenic. Because of this Logan Gilbert is a lock to be up in the Majors this season.

If there is an injury early on in the season and someone has to miss a start or two, one of the odd men out from the group of Dunn, Margevicius, and Newsome will be called up. But as we get deeper into the season if there are injuries Gilbert will be called up.

Next. What will Paxton bring to the Mariners in 2021?. dark

If there are no injuries and it is clear that Gilbert needs to be in the MLB rotation, that will mean that every single pitcher will be on a short leash with the exception of Gonzales. If Sheffield, Kikuchi, Flexen, and yes even Paxton have some poor performances then they could be taken out of the rotation in favor of Gilbert or the two pitchers who won’t start the year in the rotation from the aforementioned group of Dunn, Margevicius, and Newsome.

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