Is Marco Gonzales the ace of the future for the Seattle Mariners?

Seattle Mariners pitcher Marco Gonzales had a fantastic 2020 season but is he the ace of the future?

If there was an All-Star game in 2020, I would bet that Marco Gonzales would have made his first All-Star team. The current Seattle Mariners ace posted some incredible stats and almost led the Mariners to a late postseason run.

Marco posted a 7-2 record, with a 3.10 ERA and 136 ERA+. He struck out 64 batters, posted a 0.947 WHIP, 0.9 BB/9, 9.14 SO/BB, and 1.5 WAR.

The former St. Louis Cardinals first-round pick who the Mariners acquired in 2017 began to show promise in 2018, but he certainly turned it up a notch in 2020. The 28-year-old Gonzales is trending in the right direction and is nearing the peak age for MLB pitchers, but is it enough?

If you compare Marco Gonzales to the 2020 AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, Gonzales is not nearly on the same level as Bieber who had a 3.3 WAR, and 1.63 ERA in 2020. Or if you compare the Seattle Mariners ace to Trevor Bauer, who I think would be a great fit for Seattle, had a much better 2020 season. The free agent and NL Cy Young winner posted a 2.7 WAR with a 1.73 ERA.

I will first say that I love Marco Gonzales, and I am not in any way trying to say he is not good enough. But, if the Seattle Mariners want to take the next step forward in 2021 and beyond, adding a pitcher who is better than Marco is necessary. Here are three reasons why I think Gonzales will not remain as the Mariners ace.

Reason No. 1: Stats show that Marco’s offspeed pitches are very hittable

Marco Gonzales’ sinker and cutter were nearly untouchable according to Baseball Savant. In 2020, opposing batters had a batting average of .195 against his sinker. Against his cutter, batters only hit .188. These are extremely impressive numbers, and those two pitches accounted for roughly 70% of all the pitches he threw.

The other 30% of pitches include his changeup and curveball which are my sources of worry. In 2020, opposing batters had a .310 average against Marco’s changeup. As far as his curveball, the batters posted a .262 average. The easy answer might be to throw those pitches less or throw a different type of curveball or changeup, but that is a tall task.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1121742971756523522?s=20

What makes Gonzales so effective is his ability to change the timing of hitters by mixing in a variety of pitches so he still needs his curveball and changeup despite their low effectiveness. His curveball had the highest K% out of his pitches in 2020, so it is not entirely a bad pitch to finish off batters. As a big leaguer, it can be hard to re-learn a pitch or change the grip and have it be immediately effective so that is not a viable solution either.

2019 was a similar story where batters hit .324 against his curveball. In 2020, batters slugged .571 against his changeup and slugged .405 against his curveball which is also a big number. The highest hard-hit % came off his curveball at 41.4%, compared to his sinker which was 32.2%.

There are some other statistics that are concerning in terms of how his stuff plays out. Part of these numbers are a result of his pitching style but are important to still consider. Marco’s whiff percentage is in the 9th percentile in the 2020 MLB rankings (the higher the better). His barrel percentage is in the 31st percentile. Marco’s fastball spin rate is in the 25th percentile, and his curveball spin rate is in the 23rd percentile.

Gonzales was still a very effective pitcher in 2020 and is trending in the right direction. But I do not think the numbers I listed above will improve dramatically over the next couple of years. Thus, I think Marco is not the BEST answer to lead the rotation. And I put an emphasis on best because he still would be a good ace in the MLB, but my point is the Seattle Mariners could do better. Moving on to reason No. 2.

Reason No. 2: I don’t think Marco Gonzales can take his game to an elite level

As much as I want to see Marco Gonzales succeed, I am also a realistic person. When you do not throw an upper 90s fastball with a wicked changeup and slider, it is difficult to take your pitching to an elite level in just one offseason. Take, for example, Trevor Bauer, who struggled in 2019. But in the blink of an eye, he comes back in 2020 and wins a Cy Young Award. Or Shane Bieber who posted a 3.28 ERA in 2019, made his first All-Star game and came into 2020 dominating batters.

The difference between those two Cy Young winners and the Mariners’ Marco Gonzales is obvious, an electric fastball and crazy breaking pitches. That is not Marco’s game and that is okay, but I do not think his game can translate into a sub 2.00 ERA. Some pitchers that come to mind are Kyle Hendricks and Hyun Jin Ryu. Both of them throw a fastball in the 88-92 mph range like Marco and rely on precision and deception.

The best Kyle Hendricks has done is a 2.13 ERA in 2016 with the Cubs, and Hyun Jin Ryu posted a 1.97 ERA in 2018 with the Dodgers. Both Hendricks and Ryu have been solid pitchers in their respective starting rotations but they are fringe aces. The Cubs ace is clearly Yu Darvish and Hendricks follows him right now.

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Similar to when Ryu was in Los Angeles, he was always behind Clayton Kershaw. Even though Ryu joined the Blue Jays and became their front of the rotation leader, he was unable to propel the Blue Jays on a long playoff run. To me, no matter how good Hendricks and Ryu are, they will always be seen as fringe aces and as No. 2 pitchers, just like Gonzales. At the same time, players like Hendricks, Ryu, and Gonzales succeeding in the MLB seems like a once in a lifetime scenario.

The reason I brought up Hendricks and Ryu’s successes is that it gives me hope that Marco can continue to trend in the right direction and join the Cy Young conversation in the next couple of years. But at the same time, Gonzales will not become a player that will win multiple Cy Young Awards. That is why I think the Seattle Mariners need to bring in an ace whether via a trade or a free agent signing.

This is the exact reason why I think signing someone like Trevor Bauer would provide the Seattle Mariners with an elite ace, while Marco Gonzales could follow Bauer as a really good No. 2 pitcher. Another idea is trading with the Chicago Cubs to bring in Yu Darvish to provide a foundation for a future playoff team. Last but not least, the third reason.