Should the Seattle Mariners replicate the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen?

The Tampa Bay Rays have an unorthodox bullpen, but one of the most successful bullpens. As the Seattle Mariners bolsters its bullpen, should it look to replicate the Rays?

Rays manager, Kevin Cash has been operating an unorthodox bullpen for quite some time. And when I say unorthodox, I really am only referring to not having a single closer and using his bullpen guys in different situations instead of just the ninth inning. Baseball teams have traditionally had a go-to closer that always pitches in the ninth inning of close games. But, Cash and the Rays have been operating without an official closer the past few seasons. The Rays have found great success through its system and it raises the question, should the Seattle Mariners attempt a similar system?

The Seattle Mariners are almost finished with the Jerry Dipoto rebuild process, and now is the time to sign some free-agents to bolster the team. Dipoto has discussed the bullpen as one area of focus in this offseason and now would be the perfect time to decide what type of system the bullpen will operate in before bringing players onto the team. Also keep in mind that the MLB Rule 5 Draft is right around the corner, which could provide another bullpen arm. A closer by committee system has its pros and cons, but will it work for Seattle? Let’s start with the reasons to operate a closer by committee like the Rays.

Reason No. 1: The Rays have proved it can work while being cost-effective

In this past shortened season, the Tampa Bay Rays relievers were tied in first for most wins above replacements. The Rays and Twins relievers had a combined 3.6 wins above replacements. Tampa Bay was third in bullpen ERA with a 3.37 ERA. The Athletics and Dodgers were the only teams ahead of the Rays in ERA. In 2019, the Rays led the league in wins above replacements and ERA among all MLB bullpens. In 2018, the Rays finished in fifth place for bullpen WAR and 12th in ERA.

The other teams who have had bullpen success since 2018 include the Yankees, Athletics, Padres, and Dodgers. The four teams have had a main closer but they have great supporting relievers, who were comfortable enough to step in as the closer at any given time. For example, the Yankees have relied on Aroldis Chapman, but Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino have been used when Chapman was injured, or unavailable. But the main difference between the Yankees bullpen and the Rays bullpen is the amount spent on each bullpen.

The Yankees have always been a big-spending team and that is no secret. Just with Chapman and Britton combined, their annual salaries equal $28million in 2020. The Rays on the other hand had the 28th ranked payroll in 2020. The Rays top relief pitchers, Nick Anderson and Diego Castillo had a combined annual salary of just over $1million.

The Rays may have gotten lucky, or the general manager just did an incredible job putting together a bunch of different relief pitchers, or the system is just cheaper and effective. There is potential for the last option because when relief pitchers are dubbed “closers” they can be more expensive to sign. Like Chapman and Britton, they are both former All-Star closers who can leverage a large contract as they did with the Yankees.

Although the Seattle Mariners have some room to spend, they should not go on a complete shopping spree and sign Blake Treinen, Liam Hendriks, Shane Greene, Kirby Yates, and Brad Hand all in one offseason. But, a mix of solid lower end relief pitchers and a star relief pitcher could be very realistic. This would offer a great foundation for an excellent bullpen in the future and would fit as a closer by committee.

Reason No. 3: Ability to create favorable matchups and is less predictable

One of the main reasons why the Rays do what they do is to create favorable matchups by relying on analytics. When the opposing team has three lefties up to bat in the ninth inning, it might be better to bring in your lefty specialist, or a pitcher with a great right-handed changeup. It does not make sense to bring in a right-handed pitcher that is hittable by left-handed batters in a high leverage situation as such.

For example, Yohan Ramirez pitched very well for the Mariners in 2020 as a young flame thrower but the numbers show that against lefties he is more hittable. Right-handed batters had a .071 batting average, while left-handed batters had a .222 average. That is a major split and it would make sense to bring in a left-handed specialist like Aaron Fletcher, who did not allow a hit against lefties last season.

Although the three batters minimum rule is not favorable so much for pitching to matchups, the closer by committee is a very realistic system for the young Mariners bullpen. Even if it does not perform as well as we want in 2021, it will help foster pitching in different situations which takes experience to learn. The Rays struggled at first under the unorthodox bullpen system, but after a while of experience and bringing in the right pieces, it was one of the best.

Like the Rays early on, the Seattle Mariners had a pilot 2020 season and 2021 could be similar. So why not try the Rays bullpen system and bring in the best arms at the high leverage situations in a game whether that be the fourth inning, seventh inning, or ninth inning? The Mariners practically did that in 2020 already.

The closer by committee also helps create confusion, and or unpredictability. When teams used to face the San Diego Padres, they knew Trevor Hoffman was pitching the ninth. Or the Yankees, Mariano Rivera is taking the mound in the ninth. Yes, these guys were outstanding closers but it is rare to find gems like them and bringing them in costs money. But, when you have four pitchers that could potentially pitch in the ninth inning, it makes preparation much more difficult for the opposing team in terms of who to pinch-hit and who to scout. It becomes a game of chess where the pitching team can have an advantage in secrecy and game plan in high leverage situations.

But of course, with any good thing, there are always downsides. Here are some negative consequences of operating a Rays bullpen system.

Downsides of operating a closer by committee like the Rays

One of the most evident issues of using a Tampa Bay Rays bullpen system for the Seattle Mariners is the need for a lot of quality relievers. The Mariners can operate a closer by committee at any time, but it will not be nearly as effective without the right pieces. The Rays have done a great job finding affordable bullpen pitchers who all provide a different look. Aaron Loup a left-handed three-quarter release pitcher, Pete Fairbanks touched triple digits over the top, Oliver Drake has a funky over the top motion, and Ryan Thompson throws sidearm.

The Seattle Mariners have a few pieces in the pen right now that offer different looks, but they need to add onto it heavily this offseason. At the moment, the Mariners have a hard-throwing Ramirez, a funky motion pitcher in Joey Gerber, a veteran Kendall Graveman, a curveball specialist Anthony Misiewicz, lefty specialist Aaron Fletcher, and a few others. This already looks a little like the array of Rays bullpen pitchers. The Mariners also have some relief pitchers in the farm system that are almost MLB ready like Wyatt Mills who throws from a low 3/4 delivery from the right side.

The team does need to be careful though because adding the top free-agent relievers cost money, and the Mariners should not sign five of the top free-agent pitchers to create a successful bullpen. Rather the team should look into the analytics and find affordable pitchers that allow us to sign more than five relievers for example. To sum it up, creating a closer by committee is difficult, or just creating a good bullpen as well.

Another downside of a Rays bullpen system is the blame goes towards the manager, and the manager has a lot more work to do. Because the coaches make the decisions on who pitches when and the blame for failure goes to the coaches. Kevin Cash took the blame for game six of the World Series, bringing in Nick Anderson which was a move based on analytics. Traditionally, the closer always came in the ninth inning and that was it, clean and simple. And if the closer fails, the blame goes towards them. Operating a closer by committee becomes a whole new can of worms and becomes the manager job much more difficult in terms of strategy.

Having a great staff of bullpen pitchers can also lead to the elimination of routine. When the game is tight, closers sometimes have a routine and schedule of when to warm up. Same with setup pitchers, and middle relievers. But when a bullpen operates like the Rays, that all goes away because anyone could come in at any time. This can be difficult for some pitchers who are so routine based.

Another consequence is if the manager is wrong in choosing the highest leverage situation in a game, the best bullpen option will not be available later. This is a little hard to put together, but if Scott Servais decides to bring in Ramirez during the sixth inning in a bases-loaded situation, he will not be available in the ninth inning where it could be a one-run save situation for example. Again there is the hypothetical that if Ramirez did not come in a finish the bases-loaded mess, the ninth inning one-run lead might not have existed, so the argument could go on and on.

Lastly, closers by committees are a mess for fantasy baseball owners to navigate. We have already seen several teams go to a closer by committee, which reduces the supply of viable closer candidates for fantasy baseball teams. I would not be surprised if more teams operate like the Rays did, because the Seattle Mariners should. That would make official closers for teams a lot more valuable earlier in fantasy drafts if the supply continues to reduce. Another smaller consequence is the closer walk-up introduction would be gone. Safeco Field used to have a special introduction for J.J Putz, Fernando Rodney, and Edwin Diaz. A closer by committee would eliminate the chilling introduction for the closer.

Even with the negative internal and external consequences, the Seattle Mariners should replicate the Rays bullpen because it has proven effective. Again, the Mariners might be competitors in 2021, but the focus is on 2022 and beyond. Closers by committee take time to develop as shown by the Rays, but the Mariners have time to learn and try different things. It already seems like Dipoto is attempting to copy the Rays system so it could look more like it in 2021. The team just needs to add a few free-agent relievers and the Mariners are well on their way.