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3 reasons why the Seattle Mariners should not pursue Kirby Yates
The former San Diego Padres closer is on the free-agent market. The Seattle Mariners are looking to bolster the bullpen, but there are 3 reasons to avoid Kirby Yates.
There is no denying that Kirby Yates was one of the best closers in 2019. Since joining the Padres in 2017, Yates has transformed himself into a reliable asset in relief. Yates was drafted by the Boston Red Sox in 2005, in the 26th round. He bounced around with a few times and finally settled in with the Padres.
Yates has a tremendous splitter and low-mid 90s fastball. He was an All-Star in 2019 and finished ninth in Cy Young Award voting. He owns a career 3.54 ERA with 400 strikeouts in 282.1 innings pitched. Despite Yates’ solid career numbers, there are three reasons the Mariners should avoid signing Yates this offseason.
Reason No. 1: Kirby Yates had an injury-riddled 2020
After his career-best 2019 season, Yates pitched just 4.1 innings in 2020. To say the least, it was not the best season for him. Yates would be diagnosed with bone chips in the elbow which sidelined him for the rest of the season and could have been the last time pitching for the Padres.
#Padres free agent profiles:
— Jeff Sanders (@sdutSanders) November 4, 2020
Kirby Yates was among the top relievers in game at the end of 2019. Bone chips in his elbow cost him almost all of his walk-year after the #Padres did not give him a long-term deal.
So nearly a worst-case deal for Yates.https://t.co/PYEABCMJkl pic.twitter.com/LT0iEGTyVk
Yates had surgery on his throwing elbow in late August. Any type of injuries to the throwing arm for pitchers is a big concern. Yates dealt with minor injuries throughout the 2020 season prior to the elbow problem, which hindered his ability to stay on the field. Yates gave up six runs in just 4.1 innings.
Yates is 33-years-old, and I wish him a speedy recovery, but there is a lot of risk with signing Yates. Who knows what his stuff will look like in 2021 after his rehab. Yates does rely on a mid 90s fastball and a splitter which can both be impeded with elbow problems.
I want Yates to prove me wrong and pitch as he did in 2019 next season, but I just do not see it happening. This is very similar to the Corey Kluber situation, and whether the Mariners take the risk on Kluber.
Kirby Yates does not have a long track record of success
As mentioned before, Yates was unhittable in 2019 with the Padres. But his other years are not so impressive as you may think. Before joining the Padres, he was a subpar reliever for the Rays, Yankees, and Angels. Although Yates does have a pretty good career 3.54 ERA, that is heavily skewed by his 2019 ERA (1.19).
Credit to Yates for making adjustments and transforming himself into one of the best from 2018-2019, but his numbers from 2014-2017 are a little worrisome. According to FanGraphs, Yates struggled to induce ground balls early in his career. In his 2019 season, he had a 47.9% GB%. In 2014 and 2015, Yates posted a 32.3% and 27.0% GB%.
Yates’ strikeouts per nine innings have trended upwards ever since his MLB debut with the Rays. But again, there are concerns about whether he will have the same stuff after his rehabilitation. In 2019, his K/9 was 14.98. Yates was also able to increase his fastball velocity after joining the Padres, but that remains a big question mark after elbow surgery.
All in all, Yates does have decent career numbers. But if you leave out his 2018 or 2019 season, the numbers tell a very different story. There are many looming questions about how Yates will return in 2021 after rehabbing his elbow. This just adds to the high risk of a player like Yates when you combine it with his 2020 injury-riddled season.
Kirby Yates is a high-risk free-agent and the Mariners have other options to choose from
The free-agent market is filled with many talented veteran relievers and Yates is not worth the risk. Yates’ surgery is a major red flag and the free-agent market is filled with relievers who pitched the entire 2020 season with success.
At the moment, Spotrac projects Yates’ market value to be $8.6million per year. So, Yates is still projected to be paid well despite his high risk. There will be lots of movement in the bullpens around the league and Yates has some leverage to bargain after his All-Star season in 2019.
Due to the pandemic, the expectation is that teams will be very cautious in spending money due to lost revenues. The Mariners have created lots of salary room by rebuilding the past five seasons, but signing a high risk, high reward player does not seem to be a smart move.
Jerry Dipoto did make it a point to bolster the bullpen as the Mariners look to come out of the rebuild, but safer options exist. There are pitchers like Mark Melancon, Joakim Soria, and Alex Colome who have better track records on the market. I would think they would be cheaper than Yates as well.
dark. Next. Seattle Mariners free agent target: Pitcher Marcus Stroman
If Yates is asking for a large contract, it would be best for the Mariners to not pursue him and put the focus elsewhere. But, if the whole league is skeptical about Yates’ injury, and the values of players drop due to the pandemic, Yates might be worth an incentive-based contract for 2021. My main concern is offering Yates a $10million per year contract after barely pitching in 2020 when we could offer that type of money to Blake Treinen or others.