Seattle Mariners MLB Mock Draft 3.0

With the sixth pick, Mariners select Max Meyer, RHP Minnesota

If you’ve been paying close attention to my draft content this month, you probably know two things. First, I don’t want Seattle to take Reid Detmers. And second, I might be the highest on Max Meyer in the state of Washington. Ranked fourth in my initial Top 10 ranks, Meyer is a small RHP from the University of Minnesota with big stuff.

Listed at 6’0″, 180 lbs, Meyer possess arguably the best fastball and slider in the class. Despite his size, Meyer has touched 100 MPH with the fastball and sits comfortably 94-96 MPH with little effort in his delivery. He has a plus slider, which he can manipulate to look like three different offerings. Meyer has good feel for a changeup and the offering is already above-average with the chance to become a third plus pitch.

On top of the great stuff, Meyer throws a ton of strikes and attacks hitters with precision and advanced game plans. The only knock against Meyer is his size, which will leave some scouts and organizations to knock him out of the Top 10. This would be a critical mistake.

Assuming he stays healthy, Meyer has a floor of an Edwin Diaz style high-leverage reliever. At his best, Meyer could be the next Tim Lincecum, a pitcher who Seattle famously passed on to select Brandon Morrow.

Meyer has a chance to be the best pitcher in this draft class and with the success of Lincecum, Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman, Pedro Martinez, and Roy Oswalt, using his size as a reason not to draft him is absolutely foolish. Meyer is an elite talent and if he is on the board at six, it would be a mistake for Dipoto and Hunter to pass him up.

Pick 43: Mariners select Nick Loftin, SS Baylor

There are some players that just ooze upside. There are some that just ooze safety. Nick Loftin is closer to the latter, but anybody who profiles as every day, up-the-middle player is interesting. Loftin has a fundamentally sound shortstop, who makes all the routine plays with soft hands and a strong arm. He isn’t going to make many “flash” plays, but his solid defense plays just about anywhere.

Loftin played multiple positions for Team USA last summer, including getting some time in the outfield and possess the skills to be a solid utility option if the bat doesn’t prove to be an everyday trait. However, there are reasons to like Loftin at the plate. He has a simple swing and a sound approach at the plate.

He hits line drives from the foul line to foul line and has some surprising pop at times. The swing itself isn’t designed to generate much in-game power, but the bat speed and strength suggest a small tweak to generate more loft and backspin could unlock average in-game power.

Loftin’s best chance to play every day with the Mariners may be at second base, where he would provide above-average defense and a solid bat-to-ball skillset with a fair amount of walks.

Pick 64: Mariners select  Justin Lange, RHP  Llano (Texas)

In order to get Lange at 64, Seattle might need to promise an over-slot deal, similar to what they did with Sam Carlson back in 2017. But the 6’4″, 210 lbs righty from Texas carries the upside to make it worth it. Lange features one of the best fastballs in the class, a burning heater that sits in the mid to upper 90s.

The slider shows real promise as well and has all the makings of an above-average offering now and in the future. This issue with Lange is two-fold. First, he lacks a third, average offering, and his changeup still needs a lot of work. Second, Lange needs to throw more strikes and clean up a bit of effort in his delivery.

Lange is one of the best athletes in the class and actually shows plus raw-power and speed when he’s not on the mound. The athleticism will help him clean up his delivery and throw more strikes, which could unlock some of his massive upside. But if the command and delivery issues can’t be cleaned up, he may be nothing more than a middle reliever, which may scare some teams off him in the second round.

Pick 78: Mariners select Mason Erla, RHP Michigan State

Mason Erla is a player who was helped a lot by having a 2020 season. Though he was a weekend starter for Michigan State as a freshman and sophomore, he wasn’t on many scouts radar. He had mediocre stuff and control and appeared to be just another college arm who may be drafted to fill out a roster.

But Erla made a decision to forgo summer ball and decided instead to train and build his arm and the decision has made him a legitimate prospect. He returned this spring with new life on his fastball. Instead of sitting in the upper 80s and occasionally hitting 91 MPH, he was sitting 92-94 and topped out at 98 MPH with life up in the zone.

His program also improved the slider, which sits in the mid-80s that he can firm up and use as a cutter as well. The changeup needs work and is currently a fringe-average offering, but the pitch has shown good sink and is thrown with good arm action, giving Erla a shot at a third offering.

Erla’s newfound “stuff” leads to an increase in his strikeout rate (from 6.7 to 14.2) and allowed Erla to attack hitter rather than nibble.

If Erla had shown this ability in 2019, he’d likely be in the conversation for the backend of round one. But thanks to a microscopic track record and a labrum injury in his past, Erla will now go in the back half of the Top 100.

A good athlete with prototypical size and smooth delivery, Erla has a shot to be a #3 starter if the changeup develops and he maintains his 2020 stuff.

Pick 107: Mariners select Tyler McDonough, UTIL NC State

Tyler McDonough played his high school ball at Moeller High in Cincinnati, a school that knows a thing or two about producing major leaguers. The school is the alma mater of Hall of Famers Barry Larkin and Ken Griffey Jr. McDonough is set to become the 15th player from the school to play professional baseball.

A switch-hitter with good bat to ball skills and pitch recognition, McDonough is one of the more versatile players in the draft. He came to NC State as a catcher but started as a freshman at second base and was splitting time at second and in centerfield when the season was shut down.

He runs well and shows real OBP skills and is as solid as they come defensively. He has not made an error in 78 games at NC State. He’s more quick than fast and he takes good routes in the outfield, making him a solid defender in center. He also plays a good second base.

If he had a bit more power, he would likely go in the third round. While he has some pop, it isn’t enough to play a corner, so McDonough will need to get on base regularly to become an everyday option.

But there is a little Ben Zobrist to McDonough and he might remind some Mariners fans of Nick Franklin at the plate. A draft-eligible sophomore, McDonough has plenty of leverage, so Seattle will need to be sure they can sign him if they are going to spend one of their six selections on him.

Pick 137: Mariners select Max Carlson, Burnsville High (MN)

If he falls this low, Max Carlson will likely honor his commitment to North Carolina and re-enter the draft in 2023. But the Mariners have three big advantages that other teams don’t that could tempt the talented Minnesota prepster to sign with the Mariners.

First, Seattle is quickly garnering a reputation as a pitcher development program that is one of the games best. Second, Seattle may have a little extra cash to spend, thanks to the extra draft pick acquired from the Brewers in the Omar Narvaez trade. And finally, the Seattle Mariners are quite familiar with Max’s older brother, Sam Carlson, whom the team selected in the second round of the 2017 draft and gave a $2 million signing bonus.

The lure of playing with his brother may be enough to temp Carlson, who is himself a talented young arm. Max lacks the size and upside that made Sam a first-round talent, but even at 6’1″, 175 lbs, Carlson has some serious stuff.

Carlson’s heater sits in the 92-93 range and he touched 97 MPH before his season was ended. He backs up the buzzsaw fastball with a strong curveball and changeup and both pitches flash as plus offerings. While his command is solidly average now, Carlson is a good athlete and has shown flashes of plus command.

While he doesn’t carry the upside of his older brother, he is a polished arm who may not need much time in the minors to help out of the bullpen or in the back-end of a big-league rotation.

There we have it. Mock Draft 3.0 is in the books. We selected two diminutive RHPs, two up-the-middle bats with solid hit tools and versatility, and two hard-throwing righties who may have just scratched the surface of their potential. Not a bad haul for a five-round draft.