2020 MLB Mock Draft, Seattle Mariners Edition 2.0

We are back with our second, five-round MLB Mock Draft, to try and figure out what the Seattle Mariners will do less than one month from today.

Before we dive into the draft talk, let’s just get our standard disclaimers out of the way. First and foremost, we don’t get to watch a lot of these prospects we are discussing as a potential future Mariners. College baseball games are hard to find and trying to judge a player off of 1 or 2 games and some highlights I can find online. So most of what we are writing comes from reading and listening to those who do get to watch a lot of these player’s games.

We also don’t know whether or not a team will like or value a player the same way I, the individual ranked, does. Draft boards fluctuate wildly from team to team and from week to week, so I have to insert some of my own preferences into these mock drafts to be able to write them.

Finally, I write these mock drafts because they are fun to write. The goal isn’t to be accurate, it is just to present you with some realistic options for what is going to be an important draft for the Mariners.

So, with all that in mind, let’s go ahead and remind everybody that the Mariners will select at picks number six, 43, 64, 78, 107, and 137. Last time around, our mock draft looked like this:

1. Nick Gonzales (6)
2. Cole Henry (43)
3. Clayton Beeter (65)
4. Tyler Gentry (78)
5. Anthony Servideo (107)
6. Coby Mayo (137)

For a full breakdown of every prospect, click here. But today, we are going to try something a little different. Instead of a straight draft like we did in version 1.0, we are going to go over-slot in round two, but not by going under-slot in round 1. The Mariners have done this once under Jerry Dipoto and Scott Hunter, in 2017 when they selected Evan White for slot and gave Sam Carlson $2 million as a second-round pick. So we are going to try something similar.

With all that in mind, let’s do this.

Pick 43: Carson Tucker, SS Mountain Pointe (AZ)

It would be a lot of fun to mock guys like Nick Bitsko, Mick Abel, or Pete Crow-Armstrong here, but if any of them actually fell to the second, they would almost surely be scooped up by Baltimore, who has the highest pool and two picks between the Mariners selections at 6 and 43. But that doesn’t mean Seattle can’t get a good prep prospect in the second by promising a slight overpay.

Carson Tucker, younger brother of Pirates shortstop Cole Tucker, is a fast-rising prospect who currently has enough helium to land himself into the Top 35 of this draft. The 6’2″, 180 lbs shortstop has average or better tools across the board with the exception of power. But Tucker has shown above-average raw power and has impressive bat speed.

There is room to add strength to his wiry frame, which could push his game power into a solid 50-grade. There are some swing adjustments that will need to be made, but Tucker shows an ability to pepper the gaps with line drives, giving him a good chance to be an average bat with the possibility for more offense down the line.

Though he has just average speed, Tucker has soft hands and quick feet with enough arm to stick at shortstop, though a change to second could be on the table. A good athlete who was getting better as the spring went on, it now appears unlikely that he’ll make it to the University of Texas, though the Mariners may have to go slightly over-slot to land him, likely somewhere in the $2 million range (pick 43 slot value is $1.73 million).

64. Bryce Elder, RHP Texas

If Seattle is going to go over slot with their second pick, they’ll need to save money somewhere down the line. However, if they only need to save around $300,000 to sign Tucker, they don’t necessarily have to find that money with their Competitive Balance B pick. They could spread the savings over several picks, or spend one of their last two picks on a college senior they like.

But we are going to keep things simple here and have them save the money they need by selecting a fringe fourth-round talent as a top 65 pick. Bryce Elder has been the Friday Night Starter for the Texas Longhorns the past 2 seasons and while he doesn’t light up the radar gun, he does still carry some upside.

His arsenal includes a heavy, sinking fastball that sits in the low-90s along with a good, sharp slider as his primary out pitch. He backs up the sinker/slider combo with an above-average curveball and the ability to create extra spin, giving each of his offerings multiple looks. The changeup is a bit too firm but flashes average, giving Elder the potential to have 4 average offerings.

He carries a high floor as a middle reliever, but also has a good chance to land in the back half of a solid rotation as a groundball inducing, innings eating, Mike Leake type of arm.

Pick 78: Mariners select Landon Knack, RHP East Tennesee State

The Mariners may have saved enough money by selecting Elder about 30 picks early, but Knack is a senior who lacks leverage but has some serious upside. In fact, Knack could be an interesting option for teams much early than this selection who is looking to save some money in their bonus pool.

Without the leverage of returning to school, Knack is going to get less than his stuff suggests he is worth, which for our purposes could both help the Mariners sign Tucker and possibly save them more money to dip into the prep ranks one more time.

But if Seattle takes Knack, they aren’t getting a shlub. They are getting a pitcher with a 93-95 MPH that touched 98 in the shortened season and a sharp slider that grades as above-average. The changeup shows good promise as well, and can even flip a change of pace curveball early in counts to steal a strike.

Formerly a two-way player, Knack spent the summer focusing on pitching and getting in better shape and the results were immediate. In 4 starts in 2020, Knack posted a 51/1 K: BB ratio over just 25 innings pitched, a number that is sure to have Jerry Dipoto drooling. Selecting Knack here could save the team $300,000 or more and allow them to use that money later in the draft.

Pick 107: Mariners select Jake Vogel, OF Hunnington Beach (CA)

Remember all that money we saved by going under-slot at picks 64 and 78? Part of that is going to Tucker to lure him away from Texas. The rest of it can go to Jake Vogel to keep him out of UCLA. Vogel is one of the fastest players in the class who saw marked improvement in both his hit and power tools after a good start to the 2020 season.

Vogel has a short, right-handed swing that allows him to barrel up the baseball regularly and has begun to show some real pop in games, with the possibility of more to come as he fills out his 5’11”, 165 lb frame. He uses his speed well on the bases and in the outfield, where his natural speed and strong arm make him an everyday centerfielder.

Vogel’s draft stock will likely hinge on whether or not a team believes he will either develop enough power to warrant an everyday job or if his hit tool will develop enough to use him as a prototypical leadoff man with sneaky power. If the Mariners believe either is true, Vogel may be worth the risk, especially if they have some money to spend.

More than likely, Seattle won’t go under-slot twice in the draft, nor would they go over-slot twice. But if they do, Vogel is an intriguing prospect who could make their decision difficult if he’s still around early in the fourth round.

Pick 137: Mariners select Jesse Franklin, OF Michigan

Jesse Franklin was the best prep player in the state of Washington in 2017, but a strong commitment to the Michigan Wolverines caused him to fall to the 37th round, where he was selected by his home town Seattle Mariners. Franklin arrived on campus in Ann Arbor and immediately produced, showing first-round pedigree in 2018.

But he took a slight step back in 2019 and after a skiing accident left him with a broken collarbone, he didn’t get to see the field in 2020 before the shutdown. The two versions of himself that Franklin showed in his two seasons with Michigan represent the potential upside of his skill set.

In 2018 he was a more rounded player who showed above-average power and good contact skills. In 2019, he sold out for more power and became more of a true, three outcome player at the plate. At his best, Franklin is an average bat with good pitch recognition skills and enough power to be an everyday outfielder, but his above-average speed hasn’t translated to the base paths or defensively. His arm and poor fundamentals in the outfield make him an ideal fit for left field, not center field, which will also hurt his value on draft day.

Franklin is a fringe-draftable player in this year’s abbreviated draft, so he could return to school if he feels like he can improve his stock. But the idea of playing for his home town team and locking down $400,000 in signing bonuses isn’t a bad route to take.

Well, there we have it. Another mock draft is in the books. This time around, we went slightly over-slot with picks 43 and 108, while going under slot at 64 and 76, but managed to wrangle up a potential ace, a true shortstop with good potential at the plate, two #4 starters or middle relievers, a future centerfielder with top of the order upside, and an athletic left fielder with legitimate left-handed power and the possibility to hit for average. Overall, this would be a solid draft class.