Mariners Fans Musings: Answering some MLB Draft questions

Well, our good buddy wasn’t done yet. @alexledbetter15 has a follow-up request, one in which we are most happy to oblige:

Well answering this question is a bit harder than the first since we don’t know for sure who will be on the board at picks 43 and 65. But there are a few names I can throw out there who should still be on the board at or around those picks.

From the college ranks, a guy like Daniel Cabrera from LSU could make some sense. He’s a left-handed hitter with above-average swing plane and bat speed with a good chance to hit for average with decent pop.

If Jerry Dipoto‘s quest for an up the middle bat is legitimate, Arizona State shortstop Alika Williams could be interesting. He profiles as an average bat with a chance to hit for some pop and an above-average defender who won’t have an issue sticking at shortstop.

Clayton Beeter, an RHP from Texas A&M stands at 6’2″, 220 lbs is a fascinating arm with three 60-grade offerings and average command. The knock on the 21-year-old will be his two elbow surgeries. If Seattle wants to swing for the fences at 43, Beeter is a guy to take a chance on.

Texas prepster Masyn Winn is a two-way player with a powerful right arm. His best chance to be a star comes on the mound, where he generates high spin rates on his fastball and curveball. Scouts believe he can hit enough to be a glove-first everyday shortstop, so Winn could be a fun addition to the organization.

Next up we have a question from @zipkidcw. Chris would like for us to talk about what weighs on the mind of Jerry Dipoto on draft day:

I think there is a bit of a misconception surrounding Dipoto’s drafts as GM of the Seattle Mariners. A lot of fans seem to believe that Dipoto places a higher premium on “floor” rather than a ceiling. While I can see how many come to that conclusion, we need to remember some key factors.

First, as GM of the Mariners, Dipoto has held the 11th, 17th, 14th, and 20th picks in the first round. Most draft classes don’t have 5-8 All-Star level talents, let alone 11 to 20 of them. Dipoto has never had a chance to draft a potential star as Mariners GM as we will this year with the 6th pick.

Second, all the players he selected with those picks: Kyle Lewis, Evan White, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby, all do have some serious upside. While none are likely to be “superstars” both Lewis and White have a chance to hit in the middle of the order and Gilbert and Kirby appear to be likely #3 starters and high-end ones to boot.

Now, to answer your question, I don’t think this distinction comes into play at pick number six. Assuming one of our Top 6 prospects is the pick, they’ll all fly to the big leagues and could challenge to be the top prospect in the system.

As for the rest of the draft, I think Dipoto would place a little more weight towards guys who are closer to the big leagues. But if a college arm whom they grade as a 53-grade prospect is on the board in the second and a prep bat whom the grade as a 60-grade prospect is there as well, I believe they’d take the bat. But if the pitcher was a 53-grade and the prep bat a 55, I think they’d take the arm with a chance to get to the big leagues inside 2 years.

As for your second question, we should remember that Dipoto spent his first two second-round picks on prep players Joe Rizzo and Sam Carlson. So this does show that Dipoto is willing to spend a high draft pick on a prep player. We also know that Dipoto and his scouting team viewed Jarred Kelenic as a Top 5 talent in his draft class and was going to take him at 14 if he miraculously fell to them.

So to answer your question, will Dipoto ever spend his first-round pick on a prep player? Yes. Will it be this year? Hopefully not. There is no need to take a Veen or an Abel as college players who possess higher ceilings and floors with significantly quicker ETA’s will be available with the 6th pick.

Finally, we wrap up this Q&A with a question from @EliSellers24:

Well, this is easy. The answer is no. Any of those six players would be a good selection by Seattle. Obviously, I have my preferences and the one I’d be least excited about would be Nick Gonzales. But he is arguably the best pure bat in this class, so how upset can you reasonably be.

But there is a question that naturally spins off of your question, so let’s answer it as well: what could Seattle do that would disappoint me”? Honestly, not a whole lot. Passing on Max Meyer for a Reid Detmers type without significant bonus savings would do.

Drafting Zac Veen or Mick Abel without saving bonus money to use elsewhere would also disappoint me. I don’t have anything against any of those three players. If Seattle selected them with a plan to use the bonus pool savings to acquire another first-round talent at 43, I could totally get into it.

But drafting a “safer” player at 6 and giving him full slot instead of swinging for one of the 6-8 real difference makers in the draft would annoy me. With the sixth pick, the Mariners have a chance to land a potential #1 starter or possible ace. Or they could land one of the 3 best bats in the class who all have multiple appearances in the All-Star game type of upside. To pass on that type of talent for a guy like Detmers, a probably #4 with an outside chance to be #2, is fine after pick 9. But in this draft, there are enough difference-makers for Seattle to land one. And to voluntarily walk away from that opportunity would be discouraging.

Well, that is going to do it for this draft Q&A. I hope you guys are as excited about the draft as I am. We should get confirmation on the date and format later this week, so stay tuned for more draft buzz as we approach a truly exciting day in the history of the Mariners.