5 Mariners least likely to be traded before Opening Day 2021

Earlier this week, we discussed 5 Seattle Mariners who very well could be traded between now and Opening Day 2021. Today, we look at the 5 players with the lowest chance to be traded by that day.

Before we begin to dive into the most “untouchable” Mariners, let’s make a few things clear, right from jump street. First, nobody is actually untouchable with Jerry Dipoto at the helm, so these are actually more about guys where it makes more sense for Seattle to keep them rather than trading them.

Now, I could make this incredibly simple and pick players like Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez, but where is the challenge in that? No, for our purposes today, let’s just say that to be eligible for this list, you need to be on the 40-man roster as of today, April 17th, 2020.

Again, none of these players are actually untradeable and there are instances where trading them actually makes sense. This is baseball and there are very few black and white issues when it comes to team building. But with all that in mind, let’s get started.

5. J.P. Crawford

Why wouldn’t the Mariners trade J.P. Crawford? Well, they could but then who would be the shortstop in 2020? How about 2021? Or even in 2022? Seattle doesn’t have a viable replacement in the organization and average shortstops don’t grow on trees.

Besides that, unless Crawford is used in a trade package to acquire a different shortstop, why give up on him so fast? Go ahead and try to find a younger, more controllable shortstop, that an MLB team is willing to give up. Let me save you some time: there are none.

So besides the obvious logistical problems involved, Crawford has actually flashed enough to give him at least this year and next year to show what he is capable of. We know he brings above-average defense to the table. He has good pop for the position and runs the bases well. He takes walks. Overall, that isn’t a bad player any way you slice it.

It just makes a lot more sense to keep Crawford around for a couple of seasons. The 2021-2022 free-agent class is loaded at the shortstop position, with notables like Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, Javy Baez, and Trevor Story all scheduled to hit free agency. Trading Crawford before the winter of 2021 doesn’t make much sense, let alone before the start of the 2021 season.

4. Justus Sheffield

Similar to Crawford, there is very little reason for the Mariners to trade Justus Sheffield and his (hopefully) 4-years of service time at this point in time. Sheffield flashed both swing-and-miss stuff and the ability to generate groundballs in his first extended look at the big leagues.

Lefties like that aren’t easy to find in baseball and even fewer exist with the athleticism to match Sheffield. His slider is one of the best in the game and the changeup has really improved since coming to Seattle. The pitch he needs more value from is the fastball and Sheffield has made strides there, switching to a 2-seam grip as his primary grip.

Even if Sheffield fails in the rotation, it is hard not to see him be a success in the bullpen where his plus slider will play even better when he doesn’t have to worry about getting through the lineup multiple times.

Even if Sheffield posts solid, #4 starter numbers in 2020, there still isn’t much reason to trade him this winter, unless the Mariners are receiving a better player who fits their timeline as well as Sheffield does.

The same could also be said for Justin Dunn who has a similar floor as Sheffield with a slightly higher ceiling. Neither pitcher is likely to be dealt this summer or this winter and will more than likely be permanent members of the pitching staff come 2021.

3. Yusei Kikuchi

One of the brighter spots in spring training this year was the obvious changes Mariners LHP Yusei Kikuchi made last winter. The delivery was simplified and Kikuchi removed the hesitation from his set up. We also saw the fastball sit 94 and touch 96 for most of his time on the mound, a big difference from the 92.5 MPH he averaged in year 1.

Kikuchi was still struggling with his command and that remains his biggest hurdle left to overcome to reach his ceiling as a good #3 starter. 2020 was going to go a long way to showing the Mariners where Kikuchi fit into their future plans. But let’s consider the 3 most probable outcomes and ask if there is an outcome that makes the trading of Kikuchi make sense.

First, let’s imagine that we largely see the same Kikuchi we did in 2019. What team is going trade anything to Seattle for that guy with at least 1-year at $17 million salary, plus a $13.5 million option Kikuchi can activate after 2021?

Listen to “All-Dipoto Transaction Teams Draft” on Spreaker.

Second, what if Kikuchi does improve, but lands at a run-of-the-mill, #4 starter? Would it make sense for the Mariners to then trade Kikuchi for next to nothing to save a little bit of cash? Or does it make more sense to use the positive steps as a springboard and try again in 2021?

Finally, what if Kikuchi actually hits his ceiling and is a good #3 starter? Why would the Mariners trade a #3 starter making below-market value for a deal they can opt-out of anytime from 2022-2025? The option years become so valuable here, that trading Kikuchi after his breakout season won’t make much sense because you don’t have his replacement for 2021 in the organization.

There just isn’t much of a scenario where trading Kikuchi makes sense. That doesn’t mean there won’t be one, as strange things have a tendency to show themselves in a pennant race, but the odds are so low, we have Kikuchi at #3 on our list.

2. Marco Gonzales

The Mariners seem to go out of their way to tell people that they want Marco Gonzales to be the leader of their pitching staff well into the time they expect to compete for playoff spots and I am inclined to take them at their word. In addition, Gonzales just signed a team-friendly deal that controls his salary nicely.

On top of that, Gonzales is safe. We know he is going to give you 160-180 innings of quality, mid-rotation ball. He has posted a total 6.0 bWAR and a 7.1 fWAR in his two full seasons with the Mariners. The simple truth is that Gonzales is probably more valuable to the Mariners than any team in baseball.

Think about it like this: when is the last time a soft-tossing lefty was traded for a legitimate prospect package? It just doesn’t happen often in an era that is obsessed with velocity and swing-and-miss stuff. Gonzales is a bit of a throwback and most teams chase upside at the deadline and believe they can find a Marco Gonzales in free agency, so why give up good prospects to get Gonzales?

There is no reason for the Mariners to take anything less than what they got for 2 seasons of James Paxton and it is hard to imagine any team is going to beat that for Gonzales. What we have here is a perfect marriage between Gonzales and the city of Seattle.

Why would the Mariners mess with a good thing for a sub-par prospect package? Doesn’t it make more sense to keep Gonzales and build around him, especially since he has 5-years of incredibly cheap club-control left on his deal?